As Russia’s Black Sea Fleet Losses Continue to Grow So Do the Risks of WW3
How Close Are We from the Abyss
This week NATO/Ukraine was able to strike another painful blow by sinking the Russian patrol ship Sergei Kotov in the Black Sea. Despite Russia downplaying the losses, they are mounting and significant and Russia appears impotent to stop more attacks in the future. Yes, it is correct to say these attacks won’t change the ultimate course of the war in Ukraine and are more about symbolic victories to distract from the collapse of the ground war. However, it is equally true to say these losses are now amounting to a significant reduction in Russian naval power. To date, depending on your sources and how you count, the losses add up to as high as 33% of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet being damaged, destroyed, or sunk. This percentage is based on Ukraine’s claims of disabling 24 ships and one submarine. However, a more conservative count by the International Institute for Strategic Studies puts the figure at 13 Russian naval ships destroyed or damaged since the start of the conflict. No matter how you cut it, Russia has lost a substantial amount of its naval capability, and this should be very concerning for the world. Despite not being critical for Russia’s war in Ukraine, these ships form the basis for Russia’s strategic defense during a broader war against a force such as NATO. As such, Russia can ill afford these losses and will be forced to take action and respond. For this reason, any failure to understand the perspective shift on the importance of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet from one focused on Ukraine to one focused on Russia’s strategic security could lead to a miscalculation, escalation, and even nuclear war according to recently leaked documents. Read that again, nuclear war.
Let me get right to the point about the threat posed to us by the growing list of losses to the Russian fleet. Amidst the West celebrating the sinking of the Sergia Kotov, did anyone else notice that Russia's threshold for the use of nuclear weapons reported in leaked documents by the Financial Times last week include the destruction of 3 or more cruisers or a simultaneous hit on main and reserve coastal command centers? As a reminder, Russia’s worst naval loss of the war was the sinking of the guided-missile cruiser Moskva in April 2022. This is just one cruiser. However, when you add up all of the other losses, which include a submarine, a corvette, and amphibious ship, and most recently a modern patrol ship, you can see a corollary to the loss of 3 cruisers has been met if not exceeded. In addition, its Fleet Headquarters was struck by NATO supplied Storm Shadow/Scalp missiles, which doesn’t amount to a simultaneous strike that potentially could blind Russia but should be noted based on the leaked thresholds. I would also add that Russia lost a second A-50 of February 23rd, which is Russia’s eyes in the sky providing early warning, control, and surveillance of the battlefield airspace. These are critically important aircraft, high dollar, and low density. These are not aircraft Russia can afford to lose. As potential evidence, consider that since then, it appears no other A-50 has flown, and Russia suddenly lost a large number of combat aircraft for no explicable reason. This loss of situational awareness allowed Ukrainian air defense ambushes of Russian fighters providing close air support to the front lines, which otherwise would have been warned of the threats. The point to all of this is the sum total of these losses are rising to the level it could strategically blind and/or endanger Russia. If that is the case, the leaked documents suggest Russia may resort to the use of nuclear weapons.
Per the leaked documents according to the FT report:
A separate training presentation for naval officers, unrelated to the China war games, outlines broader criteria for a potential nuclear strike, including an enemy landing on Russian territory, the defeat of units responsible for securing border areas, or an imminent enemy attack using conventional weapons.
Other potential conditions include the destruction of 20 per cent of Russia’s strategic ballistic missile submarines, 30 per cent of its nuclear-powered attack submarines, three or more cruisers, three airfields, or a simultaneous hit on main and reserve coastal command centres.
Russia’s military is also expected to be able to use tactical nuclear weapons for a broad array of goals, including “containing states from using aggression […] or escalating military conflicts”, “stopping aggression”, preventing Russian forces from losing battles or territory, and making Russia’s navy “more effective”.
You can believe it or not, but somehow FT managed to get some documents that say we are at or about to cross the threshold Russia has internally maintained for the use of nuclear weapons. I believe this document was intentionally leaked as a warning, but I don’t believe it had the intended effect. Instead of causing pause and reflection, it seems to have been laughed off and dismissed. Russian President Putin has also been very clear of late about the West’s involvement in Ukraine risking horrific consequences and nuclear war. I do not think the Russians can get more transparent on this and dismissing this out of hand as a bluff strikes me as somewhere between foolish and suicidal. The hubris of the West is setting the world up for a major miscalculation and calamity that can’t be understated. Adding insult to injury, the West is now openly discussing what Russia is well aware NATO has been involved with covertly. Specifically, it’s an open secret that Western military personnel are assisting Ukraine in nearly all aspects of the conflict from providing weapons and training to actually collecting intelligence, targeting, and possibly even terminal control of missiles.
Again, believe what you want, but the writing is on the wall. Russia has over 30 Iskander short range ballistic missile systems aligned along the entire Ukraine border. These are currently being used to deliver conventional strikes, but the Iskander is nuclear capable and could also deliver a nuclear strike just as easily. Knowing this, if you believe these are to provide extra conventional firepower to Russian forces engaged in the fight, you’d be mistaken. After watching this for some time, I am convinced this is simply a cover for Russia operationally testing the Iskander’s ability to penetrate Ukrainian air space and successfully deliver a strike in preparation for a possible need to use tactical nuclear weapons. I wrote about this previously over the summer and it’s clear they are arrayed to deliver a singular nuclear knockout blow to all key targets across Ukraine should NATO cross Russia’s red lines. Outside of exigent circumstances, Russia is not going to risk launching a nuclear strike that could be intercepted. Knowing this, Russia has been planning for the worst. Should the need to use nuclear weapons in the event of a war with NATO breakout as it is looking more and more likely, Russia needed to know well in advance if their missiles were going to work. The last 10 months have given them the opportunity to conduct live operational tests, make modifications, and be ready while still maintaining some cover and deniability. I have to also believe that other limited uses of advanced hypersonic cruise missiles by Russia have served the same purpose. The result of all of this has been that Russia now knows exactly how to attack Ukraine and more broadly, NATO, using nuclear weapons with a high degree of assurance the attacks will be successful. NATO, because it revealed its hand in Ukraine doesn’t have such assurances or knowledge of Russian defenses. In particular, Russia has been very smart to hold back its 5th Generation fighter aircraft and S-500 air defense system so that NATO has been denied the opportunity to fully assess Russia’s true combat capability against its equipment.
I’ve spoken often of the normalcy bias folks. We all think this “can never happen,” but it is happening. There is an inertia pushing the world towards a much larger conflict that if it occurs, will go nuclear. I pray that we have some time to witness and respond to this escalation before the missiles fly, but I fear that Russia will pre-emptively assess, well in advance, NATO’s intentions to intervene and escalate so will opt to launch a surprise first strike rather than waiting to get hit. There is a precedent for this. Ukraine was clearly building up for a major attack, so once Russia became convinced that Ukraine and the West had committed to launching an imminent attack, it acted first. We are entering another extremely dangerous window as Ukraine enters its death throws. Ukraine has already lost the war, but still has more fight left in it. It can probably hold out till summer, but by that point, if NATO doesn’t directly enter the conflict, there will be a rapid collapse and we are already seeing this. Allegedly, senior Ukrainian generals disillusioned with the removal of General Zaluzhnyi have defected to Russia. If true, the rats fleeing the ship will mark the beginning of the catastrophic phase for Ukraine and NATO will intimately be aware of this fact. This will now either escalate quickly over the spring or Ukraine will be left for dead and negotiations to end the conflict will begin. Depending on whether you are a gambling person, you can either ignore the window and hope for the best or assume that you have at most three months to finalize any preparations for the breakout of a major war. I do hope cooler heads prevail and there are some signs of this, but that inertia for a bigger war seems to be winning the day. Time will tell, but hedge accordingly.
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Till next time,
D.t.Y.