March 14, 2024, is a date that will also live in infamy. This was the day that French President Macron announced the official start of WWIII whether or not you have accepted this reality. In last week’s letter, “France Sets NATO on the Path to World War 3 While America Debated TikTok (https://open.substack.com/pub/demosthenestheyounger/p/france-sets-nato-on-the-path-to-world?r=2i78uh&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true),” I detailed NATO’s plan to create the conditions and pretext, which NATO will use to officially enter the war against Russia. Not more than 24 hours after providing this information, we witnessed an escalatory drone attack destroying an old Russian helicopter in Transnistria as forecasted. The escalation toward entry into Ukraine and WWIII is happening, and everyone needs to take notice. In fact, things appear to be moving faster now than most will expect. Based on that information, I’ve been asked how this will progress once NATO enters Ukraine. As such, I’m going to provide you with an updated assessment based on the latest events.
As a scene setter, there are already thousands of NATO troops and paramilitary intelligence officers in Ukraine actively supporting AND conducting operations against Russia. Russia is well aware of this and has carried out numerous lethal strikes against concentrations of western forces over the last year. Further, Russia just announced it will be creating some 16 new divisions. To put it in perspective, this force is larger than most all of the European armies of NATO combined. Russia does not need this army to smash Ukraine and finish it off. Russia knows exactly what is coming and is building this army for a direct land war with NATO. In the meantime, NATO is trying to scrape together a force of 20,000 to act as an operational unit in Ukraine. To put this force in perspective, this is a fraction of the troops that were committed to the Battle of Avdeevka and would be completely wiped out within 1-2 months at the current levels of combat with Russia. NATO is also massing significant armor and personnel in and around Ukraine and it appears most of it is headed to Romania and then likely forward into Moldova then Transnistria and/or Ukraine.
If you want to know how NATO gets from Romania to Ukraine, read last week’s letter. My caveat to last week’s post is that it is looking like the coalition led by France will still use a staged pretext to enter Ukraine but may not request Article 5 be triggered. I get the sense from the latest flurry of high-level diplomatic meetings that Germany in particular pushed back on the operation, but nonetheless agreed to it with the condition that it be afforded some strategic ambiguity, and that France does not invoke Article 5 if it insists on entering the war. Either way, the French have committed to this, and the operation is in process. This phase will likely play out over the next month. In the meantime, Russia continues to pound Ukraine and roll forward all across the combat line. Ukrainians are putting up a hell of a fight, but it simply isn’t enough. They don’t have the soldiers or weapons necessary to hold back the tide and are now fighting a bloody delaying action as they gradually get pushed back to the West. This is quickly approaching a crisis situation and both Ukraine and NATO know it. Russia is poised to launch a major offensive and when this occurs, already thin Ukrainian lines are going to break and Russia is likely to make rapid advances much deeper into Ukraine. If NATO isn’t in place prior to this offensive achieving a major breakthrough, the war will effectively be over for Ukraine. As such, NATO is now in a race against time to not just create a pretext to enter Ukraine, but also to mass enough forces in the interim in staging areas so that they can carry some amount of combat power into the fight before Zelensky’s regime collapse and Russians are sitting in Kiev.
Let’s fast-forward now to late spring. Russia will be on the offensive and be threatening a major breakout targeting cities such as Kherson and Kharkov. France along with a coalition of European countries will announce that the time has come for intervention and that the world cannot wait another minute. They will claim the Russian menace must be stopped before it is on the doorstep of Paris. Western troops will then stream across the border into key staging areas across Western Ukraine linking up with advanced parties that are currently in these areas right now prepping the facilities. These forces will then move to relieve a large contingent of Ukrainian soldiers currently tied down along the border with Belarus allowing them to be committed to reinforcing faltering areas of the front lines and halting Russian breakthroughs. I think the coalition forces entering Ukraine will claim to not be there to fight Russia directly, but the façade will quickly crack and fall away. Russia, not in the least tricked by the façade, will directly target these troop concentrations and headquarters with missile strikes inflicting casualties that cannot be hidden within hours to days of official entry into the war. In defense, these nations will deploy their remaining air defense systems forward to Ukraine where they’ll maintain a reasonable level of coverage against drones and non-hypersonic cruise missiles until Russia finds and destroys them. Even with them in place, these air defense systems will not be sufficient to prevent coalition casualties. More importantly though, the French coalition force will not be sufficient to free up enough Ukrainian soldiers to blunt the Russian offensive.
I want to warn everyone that this conflict could go nuclear at any point once it is clear what amounts to a de facto NATO army is entering Ukraine. Russia may opt to not wait and strike first, but as things stand now, I expect Russia to continue to try and defeat NATO inside of Ukraine conventionally. As stated, the initial coalition force to enter Ukraine will not be sufficient to consequentially tip the balance in favor of Ukraine. However, once in Ukraine, the coalition forces will be trapped in a cycle of escalation. Specifically, Ukraine will continue to be pushed back and coalition forces will continue to take casualties while hiding in the rear areas. This situation is not sustainable and will require the coalition to add more troops and equipment to the fight to prevent a Russian victory. This will begin to look like a full-scale commitment of military forces from countries such as France, Lithuania, Poland, and Estonia even if the Germans and Brits hold back for now. This combined force will be significant and will be ordered into direct combat with Russians. This will almost certainly be preceded by the entrance of coalition air forces to provide a “no-fly zone” over Western Ukraine. These jets will be targeted and if they approach the line of combat, will be shot down by Russian air defense systems. This is a key escalation milestone everyone needs to be on the alert for. Up until this point, Russia will most likely conventionally fight and defeat the combined coalition army on the ground in Ukraine. This will effectively destroy NATO piecemeal if allowed to continue and that is why it will ultimately require nations like France and Poland to eventually throw everything they have at the war. When they do, you’ll know it because they’ll commit aircraft. These aircraft most likely will not be able to operate from within Ukraine and this is where things are most likely to enter into a phase of uncontrolled escalation.
As soon as Russia sees that the fight is being conducted from outside the borders of Ukraine, anything is possible. Any airfield supporting airstrikes against Russia will become a legitimate target and be hit. Again, as long as the fight is still going in Russia’s favor, I assess they’ll use conventional missiles strikes to take out these airfields, but if Russia proper is getting hit hard and their forces are falling back, these airfields will be hit with tactical thermonuclear weapons. In addition, regardless of the type of munitions used, these strikes will hit for the first time on the home soil of NATO member states. Regardless of whether or not the French coalition entered the war “independently” without invoking Article 5, NATO member states will invoke it once Russian missiles fly through their airspace. From this point, I cannot say where the war leads, but expect the worst. There are just too many variables involved, but Russia is not able to conventionally fight all of Europe and North America. If the full weight of NATO comes against Russia, I expect Russia to launch a nuclear first strike. This is an end game situation and per Russian defense doctrine. To believe they won’t execute that plan in defense of Russia would be a catastrophic strategic miscalculation.
Speaking of variables, there are a number of wild cards that are unknown knowns. One of which is Belarus. We know Russians have forward deployed forces to the Belarus along the border with Ukraine. Should the order be given, these forces would be launched to attack into Ukraine’s rear and cut the country in half. What we don’t know is if or under what circumstances the Russians would exercise this option. If I had to guess, I’d say there is a real possibility that as soon as coalition forces entered Ukraine and took up positions along the Ukraine border, Russian and Belarussian forces could open a new front. This operation would be justifiable and would only run a medium risk of escalating the war more than it already was. As such, Russia would likely get a net positive advantage from this move. However, Russia may opt to keep these forces in reserve as a buffer in the event the war escalates to a full conflict with NATO outside of Ukraine’s borders. Additionally, there is the possibility that the coalition force also masses along the Black Sea coast. This could bring NATO naval vessels and aircraft into direct confrontation with Russian forces earlier than initially estimated. If coalition aircraft are used to attack the Russian Black Sea Fleet, there is a high probability that they’ll score some direct hits. Russia is very unlikely to allow its entire fleet to be wiped out and if they are unable to prevent these attacks, this becomes a case where I do assess Russia is prepared to use tactical nuclear weapons. Then there is China. China gave a very ominous warning just in the last week and basically said that it is prepared to attack anywhere if Russia is attacked. I can’t stress how out of character this is for China to make such a direct threat and the message is clear. They are messaging the US that they know what NATO is up to and are warning us not to do it. If NATO does become heavily involved, I expect China to enter the war in at least a support capacity providing Russia whatever it needs respective of munitions and technology. China may also provide troops under and extreme situation but are more likely to use them locally to attack Taiwan if the US becomes committed to a major land war in Europe. All said, these are just three known unknowns amongst many. To try and cover all of these would be impossible but suffice to say they range from Russia providing advanced weapons to partners in the Middle East to launching a surprise strategic strike.
This takes us right up to the point of no return. As we move forward, the off-ramps to this war become less and less. We are nearing a point where once crossed, there is no going back. I believe this point will be marked by the official entrance of coalition if not outright NATO forces into Ukraine. Once committed, there is a small window where both sides can recognize this is about to spin out of control and step back. Unfortunately, I only see positions hardening and all sides have staked their reputations and even national existence on victory. This all but assures all sides will be quickly sucked deeper into a larger conflict making it not just harder, but impossible to extricate themselves without achieving a total victory. Another way to think about this is the higher the cost, the more it becomes essential to win the war to justify the price. This inability to step back, should the line be crossed into Ukraine, increases the risk of a major nuclear war from possible but unlikely to likely. The timeline is also shocking. If events continue apace and no one steps back, the potential for a nuclear war dramatically spikes by late spring or early summer and then continues to rise the longer the conflict persists. I think Russia will exercise all possible conventional options before resorting to nuclear weapons, but I don’t see NATO willing to pull back and this will force Russia’s hand. As of today, I’d guess we could see that critical culminating point by late summer if an off-ramp is not taken and soon.
To sum things up, let me say that diving into the “what ifs” is always a sketchy mission. The haters will always try to discredit you and use any little deviation to say, ”see, see, see!” I’ll say upfront that I won’t waste my time responding. This is an assessment. It isn’t set in stone, it will update, and I’m not staking my reputation on it playing out “exactly” this way. No one has a crystal ball and as I pointed out, there are a huge number of variables that make this an incredibly complex and difficult situation to assess beyond one move in advance. This assessment represents what I see as the most likely progression of events based on the sum of everything I am tracking from insider information and troop movements to human factors and economics. Ultimately, believe what you want, but dismiss what I’m telling you at your own peril. My recommendation is that you do prepare for the worst. Human ego, hubris, and the lust for wealth and power are incredibly powerful motivators in play, but so is survival. These factors make what should be unthinkable into the scary reality we are watching play out in real time. Nonetheless, I’ve held out hope for the last year that cooler heads would prevail and that one of the escape policies for this conflict would have been executed, but to no avail. This leaves escalation and major war as the most likely of the three options I presented last year when discussing the trajectory of this war. I can no longer in good conscience present realistic alternatives that are “good.” We have entered what will prove to be a self-reinforcing cycle of escalating violence. This is the point I want to drive home. Now is the time to have a legitimate plan in place for how you’ll respond to a nuclear strike. The oh well, I guess I am dead is cope. For the first time in decades, Americans and Europeans need to take the threat seriously. In my upcoming letters, I’ll go down the rabbit hole and explore this apocalyptic potential and try to give you some realistic pointers based on the latest information and assessments. This will be a post not to miss and for subscribers only.
Till then,
D.t.Y.