Urgent Evening Updates: 6 May 2024
Middle East:
· Earlier today news broke that Hamas had accepted a ceasefire proposal brokered in part by Qatar, Egypt, and the United States.
· Hours after news of the ceasefire broke, Israel began intensive bombing of Rafah.
· As of 7:00 PM Eastern Time, it does appear that Israel has launched its ground invasion of Rafah.
o Sources report at least one Israeli armored brigade has been committed to cutting the southern border between Rafah and Egypt. Israeli armor and bulldozers are actively engaged now sealing off all southern escape routes.
o Simultaneously, another Israeli brigade is engaged in cutting Rafah off from the north.
o It appears a third brigade may have been committed in recent weeks as a reserve for the upcoming street battles.
o As I report, heavy bombing and shelling of Rafah is being reported.
This is a massacre. Israel provided nothing more than a token offer for the surviving Palestinian remnant to flee back north to nothing. Their homes no longer exist, and the “evacuation” corridor was never truly opened and closed after maybe 12 hours. No sane person believes that was sufficient to allow a million people to evacuate. Israel will not allow peace. Per the Israeli war plan I have discussed repeatedly; Gaza is just the first phase of a much broader war. Gaza must be ethnically cleansed first. Once Gaza has been pacified, Israel will turn north to engage in a broader war with Hezbollah. Netanyahu will not survive in office long if any peace breaks out. His power and coalition are wholly dependent on continuation and expansion of this conflict. The big danger tonight is not just to the Palestinians getting slaughtered like fish in a barrel, but this attack has been broadly telegraphed as a red line for the region. Israel risks losing all political support and becoming a pariah nation. In addition, this will spark widespread protests globally. Further, and much more serious, this will likely force Hezbollah and other opposition forces to become involved in the war. Hezbollah, in particular, has warned Israel not to invade Rafah. Well, tonight Israel just called Hezbollah’s bluff. If they are going to escalate, now is the time. Otherwise, they too can look forward to being delegitimized as all talk. Nonetheless, they are kidding themselves. Israel will force the war with them regardless of whether or not they choose to de-escalate. You can bet money that the war with Iran is still coming even if it was temporarily postponed by massive last minute international pressure on Israel. This pressure will not be sufficient to maintain any long-term peace though so don’t kid yourself.
Europe/Russia:
· Russian forces continue to press west after the collapse of Ukrainian defense around the city of Avdeevka. Over the past month, Russia has taken numerous villages and small towns penetrating over 30km beyond the prior line of contact.
· The retreat of Ukrainian forces is escalating. Ukraine failed to prepare sufficient tertiary defensive lines and are unable to hold back advancing Russian forces.
· Russia has amassed an additional 150,000 troops for an imminent offensive against Ukraine that could be initiated as soon as this week.
· Ukraine’s center is now in extreme danger of collapsing. Specifically, the Donetsk theater of combat is not projected to hold after the Russian offensive begins.
· Russia tactical nuclear weapons exercises are occurring today.
· Russia summoned the Ambassadors from the UK and France warning both countries that they will be attacked by Russia if they persist in attacking Russia. In not-so-subtle terms, the Russian government made it clear that this war is on the verge of going nuclear.
Despite the West attempting to ignore rapidly deteriorating conditions in Ukraine, this is not the time to ignore it. It continues to escalate and is reaching a point where it can spill over and/or go nuclear on no notice. In particular, per my prior Substacks, I have assessed the Russian deployment of Iskander ballistic missile systems around Ukraine as preparation for a nuclear decapitation strike should it be needed. These forces have since proved they can successfully penetrate Ukrainian/NATO air defenses and strike all across Ukraine with impunity. With the most recent announcement by Russia that they will be conducting a tactical nuclear exercise, they have now created the cover and pretext to move and co-locate nuclear warheads with the already deployed Iskander missile systems. The Iskander system is only one system the Russians posses that can deploy tactical nuclear weapons. Russia also has bombs, missiles, cruise missiles, mines, torpedoes, and artillery that can deliver an array of tactical nuclear weapons. This matters because of recent evidence French troops engaged in combat with Russian troops, which is a redline for Russia. Reports suggest multiple French forces were killed in the latest engagement, which likely means Russians were killed too and this most likely prompted the tense discussion with the French Ambassador. In addition, the UK’s announcement that they have approved the use of long-range missiles they have provided Ukraine to strike deep inside of Russia has gotten a very chilling response from Moscow. In short, Moscow’s message was clear that they are done pretending NATO is not party to this conflict and if it continues, Russia will use nuclear missiles to strike key NATO decision making centers. Russia knows a mountain of advanced NATO weapons are coming and/or already inside Ukraine and is clearly warning Ukraine and NATO to restrain their attacks. The problem is Ukraine has absolutely every reason to use them against Russia in the most damaging ways possible. This all but assures serious and potentially catastrophic escalation with no notice or further warning.
This is extremely dangerous so please don’t discount what I am warning. I know folks like me sometimes sound like the Boy that Cried Wolf but understand that I’m simply sounding the alarm each time things either are at the brink or escalate to the next level. We are at another such moment in the Ukraine. NATO knows Ukraine is collapsing and is now faced with a decision to let it collapse or directly enter the conflict. This must happen before Russia achieves a major breakthrough in the Donbas and threatens collapsing the center of Ukraine’s front lines. If this occurs, and without intervention, by all estimates it will, the war is over. All my sources and intel suggest that despite Russia’s warnings today, NATO countries are committed to escalating the conflict to the point of spill over to prevent this collapse of Ukraine. Please don’t wait and see. These conflicts don’t progress in a linear fashion. They hit critical tipping points and then catastrophically collapse. The real possibility of them going nuclear now is very real. Do not dismiss this. If Ukraine launches a massive strike against sensitive Russia installations using NATO supplied weapons, this is the exact scenario Russia warned would come with catastrophic consequences.
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Talk soon…
D.t.Y.