Let me get right to it. Israel is about to spark off what very likely will turn into a regional conflict involving the use of nuclear weapons. As you have witnessed, the global chaos continues to accelerate, but this will be next level stuff. For baselining, what you are seeing tonight is the tip of the iceberg. Western North Carolina is obliterated, Florida is about to get the one-two, Ukraine is collapsing, NATO is in panic, Lebanon is on fire, Gaza is rubble, and Israel’s war against Iran is about to reach a point of full open conflict. I cannot cover all of the topics I need to in detail, so despite the seriousness of all of these, I want to focus right now on Israel-Iran, which I consider perhaps the most immediate strategic threat. Let me say very clearly that the region is about to explode and very few options to avert it are left. Long time readers know that I laid this scenario out over a decade ago. This war has been in the works for years and only by the grace of God has it been repeatedly averted. Unfortunately, each time this happened another off-ramp from war was closed off moving us incrementally closer and closer to major war and now we may indeed be at the brink.
As things stand tonight, Israel is actively carrying out military operations against Yemen, Gaza, the West Bank, Syria, and Lebanon. What is coming within hours to days will add Iran to the list. Most of your “experts” are talking about air strikes and how the Israelis will use F-35 stealth fighter jets to launch cruise missiles and bomb Iran. Let me tell you right now they are deceived or part of the deception operation. Strikes launched from aircraft will no doubt be a part of the war plan, but they won’t be part of the first phase. Launching dozens to a hundred aircraft plus the refuelers and the activity on the ground is unmistakable giving Iran plenty of warning an attack is imminent. All sides know this. However, Israel has quietly developed an undersea strategic strike capability that will give no warning of an attack. Israel has accomplished this by building out a fleet of modified advanced German diesel electric submarines capable of striking any target in the Middle East with both cruise and ballistic missiles. Disturbingly, the munitions payload is both conventional and nuclear.
Right now, I have good reason to believe that it will be submarine launched strikes that deliver the initial blow to Iran, and I assess this will be designed to occur in echeloned phases. The only question is whether or not Israel will use conventional or nuclear warheads. My current assessment is that Israel will launch a full-scale conventional attack on Iran designed to inflict maximum pain and force Iran to retaliate. It will not be a strike Iran can pretend did not occur or that it mitigated like last time. The Israelis are going to go after a target list that includes military sites, oil/gas production facilities, power stations, ports, and Iranian leadership. With respect to leadership, Israel is seeking to decapitate the Iranian government, and this appears to be the most critical aspect of the timing for the attack. The subs are already on station just waiting for a command to fire. As soon as Israeli intelligence identifies the precise moment where they know they can locate the bulk of key Iranian leadership, they will strike. There is also some chatter and speculation that Israel has invested in converting commercial shipping into covert weapons platforms that can carry both drones and missiles close to Iranian shores to launch surprise attacks. I can’t discount this scenario, but can’t confirm it either unlike the subs. As such, my focus remains on the subs. This will consist of the first round of strikes on Iran. There will be dozens, but not hundreds of targets initially hit. This concludes Phase 1 of the Israeli attack plan.
Assuming Israel opts to conduct a conventional first strike, and this is by no means certain, the second phase of the plan is where things get very ugly. Israel is going for the throat and intends to not just defeat Iran but destroy it despite the rhetoric about Israel not being the enemy of the people. That frankly is utter bullshit. Pardon the vulgarity, but it is purely a psychological operation designed to cause dissention amongst their enemies in Iran. This is the same tactic being employed elsewhere by the Israelis who are attempting to create, magnify, and/or exploit rifts between Hezbollah and the rest of the Lebanese public just like between Hamas and the Palestinians. Do not be under any illusions. The Israelis hate the peoples of these nations as much as they hate the various governments. There is a reason they refer to them as dogs, subhumans, cockroaches, and kill women and children indiscriminately. Israel wants them all eradicated in the genocidal sense. To accomplish this, Israel fully expects, has planned for, and intends to provoke a large-scale Iranian retaliation with the Phase One strikes. Israel then plans to use the Iranian retaliation as justification to launch a second strike using nuclear weapons targeting all of the above again plus the deeply buried nuclear sites. Israel was informed by the US that their bunker buster bombs are simply not going to be sufficient to take out Iran’s nuclear facilities, which are deep underground. That creates a problem because it is exactly these sites Israel views as the most critical targets to destroy. As such, only nuclear or other unconventional weapons have the ability to effectively take out these facilities. To use those weapons, Israel needs to create the proper pretext, which the Iranian retaliation to the first strike will create. Needless to say, once Israel crosses this threshold, the entire region will be engulfed in the war, which has every chance to go global. Even if this somehow remained regionally contained, the effects would be catastrophic. Aside from the immediate massive carnage, death and destruction, Israel will have simultaneously created a humanitarian, environmental, and energy crisis to mention nothing of the international precedented it just created for the use of nuclear weapons.
Now, if you thought that was bad, it is necessary to look at an alternative sequence of events. As I have flagged, there was an “event” in the Iranian desert a few days ago that registered as a magnitude 4+ earthquake. The problem was the seismic readings did not look like a natural event. Instead, they looked exactly like a nuclear detonation. The waves had no build, no foreshocks, and no aftershocks. The event was more or less instantaneous and then nothing…an explosion. This event went almost completely unreported and suppressed. Others also furiously tried to debunk it by pointing out the depth of the event was recorded as 10km. However, what they didn’t tell you is that the depth estimates are very inaccurate and when it is a shallow or unknown depth, the instruments generically fill in a depth of…you guessed it…10 km. Conveniently, Russia blew up a huge Ukrainian ammo depot yesterday, which also managed to register as a magnitude 3 on the Richter Scale. What’s telling is despite this being an obvious surface detonation, monitoring stations still registered this event as 8km underground. Nonetheless, there has been silence on this event in Iran. I should also note that immediately after this “event,” Israel suddenly announced a delay in its attack to re-evaluate targets and to meet with the Americans. Are you getting the point? Even more telling is the sudden movement within the Iranian government to vote on scrapping its non-nuclear policy and developing a nuclear weapons capability. Say what they want about the Iranian government, but no one is “asking” for nuclear weapons because they suddenly are going to debate this. This is directed. Further, Iran knows that you don’t talk about getting nuclear weapons until you already have nuclear weapons. Iran went so far as to allude to this when they warned Israel not to strike because their response would be unconventional. For those with ears to listen, Iran’s threat of an asymmetric response was a loud and clear warning that they had secret weapons they’d use if attacked. Considering this and a host of other signs and symptoms across the global security spectrum to include Russia recalling its Ambassador to the United States on just hours notice and their mobile strategic weapons being put on combat patrol, I feel comfortable making the assessment that Iran does have nuclear weapons. I’ll say it again. Iran has nuclear weapons.
Now, if I can deduce that from the voices in my head, one would think and hope both the United States and Israel also know this. This is nightmare stuff folks and Americans are asleep. However, the Director of the CIA William Burns as recently as this week reiterated the CIA’s assessment that Iran does not have nuclear weapons and is not pursuing a nuclear weapons capability. In this case I think Burns is a liar and his agency is irredeemably corrupt and incompetent. Either way, we’ll find out soon enough because if Israel knows Iran has nuclear weapons, the entire strike package and war plan changes. Instead of a conventional first strike, Israel may opt to use nuclear weapons in a first strike against identified Iranian nuclear facilities. This would align well with Israeli statements about everyone in the Middle East being able to see when Israel strikes back. It would also align with rumors that the US conveyed to Iran through the Saudi Crown Prince that we do not know what Israel is about to do and we have no part in it. Whether a ploy or not, it should be clear that it appears the US is trying to distance itself from whatever the hell Israel is about to do. Knowing all this now, once Israel commits to the attack and launches, we may very well be locked into an inescapable escalation to nuclear war. If nuclear weapons are used by Israel, it is unlikely they’ll get everything and Iran, will retaliate with everything it has to include biological and chemical weapons whether or not they actually have nuclear weapons. In response, Israel will strike with nuclear armed ground-based Jericho missiles against all targets in the Middle East it considers threats. This means Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Iran will all be hit with multiple nuclear strikes. Tehran and Damascus will cease to exist. Beirut will also likely be annihilated. At this point, if not already, Russia, Turkey, and the United States would find it impossible to not become involved. You can push pause right here because that’s World War 3 and not just the entire Middle East, but NATO, China, and North Korea are going to be pulled in. You get the point. This results in something between bad, worse, and worst. I honestly hope I am wrong because if Iran does have a nuclear weapon when Israel attacks, once the dust settles, we will have to enter the word “worstester” into our lexicon.
Your action plan is simple. Get prepared. If you know anyone in the Middle East, they need to leave now and plan to stay gone until this finds a way to de-escalate, which is looking increasingly impossible if Israel is not put back in the box by the US. I know the US, Russia, and China have all pushed hard behind the scenes on both sides to step back but the problem is Israel wants a war and is not going to sit back now and let Iran develop a nuclear weapon in the small chance it doesn’t already have one. Israel is also not going to sit back and wait to find out the hard way if Iran has a nuclear weapon. In short, the stakes are too high now for Israel to not force a decisive conflict sooner than later. Get fuel, get backup power, and plan for massive energy/fuel disruptions. Further, if this evolves into an actual nuclear exchange, odds are this pulls Russia and the US directly into a nuclear conflict. My recommendation is to head to the Southern Hemisphere on an indefinite vacation until this plays out. The world is about to change.
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Stay say tonight,
D.t.Y.