ALERT!!! Escalation in Ukraine may be Imminent
Russia Reveals Ukrainian Plan to Attack Crimea and Threatens Immediate Strikes
Just two days ago I posted a dire assessment warning that escalation was Ukraine’s only viable strategy to defeat Russia. I premised it on the assumption that the Ukrainian leadership must know it cannot defeat Russia and that their offensive, to date, has been a total disaster. As such, Ukraine’s offensive is just a deception and is instead, all about conducting an operation designed to force NATO into the war. You can find the full assessment here: What is Ukraine’s True Battle Plan for their “Spring” Offensive? https://open.substack.com/pub/demosthenestheyounger/p/what-is-ukraines-true-battle-plan?r=2i78uh&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web. Today, not 48 hours after releasing my assessment, news broke regarding intelligence Russia has of a Ukrainian attack planned against Crimea. Based on the Russian statements, this attack may prove to be that predicted operation to force escalation if carried out. If the attack is carried out, which the Ukraine is certainly capable of conducting, and Russia responds as it said it will, we could see the outbreak of WWIII in just days. Understanding how and why this could play out is crucial to understanding the mortal danger of the situation for the world. We have never been closer to WWIII than we are today.
My readers know that I believe that the Ukrainian “offensive” was never meant to be anything more than a deception designed to buy time. This was necessary so that the Ukraine could mass resources and prepare for what would be some event that was designed and carried out to create both the pretext and the necessity for NATO to enjoin the war. There are good arguments to be made for the Ukraine unilaterally doing this as well as in coordination with the CIA. Either way, it would mean WWIII. That said, if the Ukrainians were probing to find out what such an operation would look like, the Russians just made it clear for them (whether by design or accident). Specifically, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said Tuesday that Ukrainian forces are plotting attacks with HIMARS long-range artillery systems and Storm Shadow missiles against the Crimean Peninsula, and this would lead to an immediate response by Russia. Shoigu stated:
The use of these missiles outside the zone of the special military operation will mean the United States and Great Britain's full involvement in the conflict and will entail immediate strikes on decision-making centers in Ukraine.”
It’s this statement that I want to dissect for its importance. First, when a senior official speaks in this capacity, it is to message. Every single word has meaning and is designed to convey very specific information to the intended recipients, even if they are not explicitly named. Knowing this, it’s crucial to detail each key assertion because the statement is by far the most dire and direct that I have seen to date in this war.
First, Russia is being clear that Crimea is not within the zone of what they consider the special military operation. As far as Russia is concerned, Crimea is a done deal and firmly a part of Russia. This then implies that any attack on Crimea is an attack on Russia and could go as far as trigger Russia’s nuclear use doctrine and/or serve to justify a broader mobilization in Russia to a full-scale declared war. Second, in very plain language for “Diplospeak,” Shoigu states that Russia will treat this attack the same way it would if the attack had been launched by NATO. There is a dual implication here. One is that Russia would then be at war with NATO in the literal sense. The other is warning NATO (Russia is really speaking to NATO in this statement, not Ukraine) not to do it for the aforementioned purposes. Finally, the last portion is what really had me sit up in my chair. The use of the term “immediate” removes any of the typical vagueness of diplomatic discourse and instead ops for a very specific and limited window demonstrating Russia’s resolve about what comes next. This effectively creates a policy ultimatum that would be very difficult to walk back and is a form of brinkmanship where you have committed now to an if-then response. That response is to immediately strike “decision-making centers in Ukraine.” Let me be clear here. I believe pundits are misreading and or mistranslating this as military headquarters. The Russian language is specific, so don’t read this wrong. Shoigu wasn’t saying Russia was going to hit military command centers. They can and have done that repeatedly. Shoigu used the term decision-making centers to tell the US and UK that they were going to hit targets that previously had not been targeted because they were deemed as neutral political and/or civilian installations. Translating that further, I believe he said Russia will destroy your embassies in Ukraine, which are the US and UK’s decision-making centers in Ukraine.
Should an American or British diplomatic facility in Ukraine, or anywhere, be hit by Russia, there can be zero doubt this will be played as an attack against a NATO member and trigger Article 5. Russia knows this so any attack would confirm Russia is committing to a broader policy of war with NATO, not just Ukraine. Whether in coordination with NATO or not to force escalation, this threat from Russia is everything Ukraine has hoped and wished for on a silver platter whether by decision or miscalculation. I say miscalculation because I can’t say for sure if Russia only intended this statement to be a warning to NATO to prevent escalation…maybe as a last-ditch clarification of intent…or if it has full awareness that Ukraine will almost certainly launch this strike it thinks will bring NATO into the war (exactly as discussed two days ago). However, either way, Russia does have some ability to still maneuver out of a direct conflict if this was truly a warning to prevent war. If/when the attack takes place, Russia could opt to knock out Ukrainian diplomatic facilities and NATO facilities operating under less than full diplomatic status instead of overt diplomatic facilities of NATO members. One example that comes to mind would be striking any one of the high-end hotels in Kiev or Lviv that are packed with NATO contractors, military advisors, diplomatic support personnel, and intelligence officers. This would have the effect of sending a strong message to NATO while still giving both sides some type of deniability that could be used to avert a direct confrontation. On the flip side, the Russian warning still could have what a sane person would hope to be the intended effect. That effect would be to put NATO on notice forcing them to forbid Ukraine for striking Crimea with these weapons. Even then, this may not stop Ukraine from acting unilaterally, but it would at least create the option for NATO to disavow the attack giving all sides one last chance to spare humanity the calamity of WWIII. As such, it seems to me Russia knows this is coming and figures it has nothing to lose by at least trying to stop it.
Taken in its totality, I think the Russians have hit their limit with tolerating NATO’s offenses. I’d also say this would be a great time to dispense with the “Russia sucks” brainless rhetoric. People need to know how serious this is, and it doesn’t matter if you don’t like Putin or Ukraine or Nazis or the Easter Bunny. The fact is our stupid memes and flags are about to get us all killed. Russia has to know Ukraine is looking for an opportunity to escalate. I do not think Russia would make such a specific threat that could box them into a massive escalation unless they believed they didn’t have a choice and were ready. To date, Russia has been incredibly disciplined when it comes to not falling for or providing NATO any opportunity to escalate despite their repeated and serious acts intended to provoke Russia. This was wise because getting over committed has been the death of more than one “great” military. However, what if Russia is at the point where it has concluded they must expand the war? President Putin made an interesting statement that might support this supposition last week. He said that Russia has more or less already achieved its military objective of de-militarizing Ukraine. He justified this by pointing out that nearly all of their domestic weaponry has been destroyed and they are exclusively reliant on outside support. To me, this implies, just as I pointed out in previous articles, Russia now sees the Ukraine as a defeated shell and NATO as the real objective that must be confronted and defeated. If this is the case, we are speeding into a head-on collision and massive war.
Recommendations: First, if you were dumb enough to take one of the many contracts in Ukraine or know someone that did, you need to leave right now or tell your friend to come home. Russia just made it clear it is well aware of NATO personnel, to include diplomatic, operating inside of Ukraine in a capacity of full party to the war and is going to kill you. Let’s not mince words. If Ukraine calls Russia’s bluff and launches the NATO supplied weapons against Crimea, which they do have and can launch, Russia is going to hit your offices with a barrage of hypersonic missiles, and you will be identifiable only by dental records and/or DNA. Further, despite all the talk about the Ukrainian offensive, Russia has massed probably three quarters of a million troops or more around Ukraine. They are looking just as likely to be the ones about to drop a hammer in an offensive if you ask me. As for the home front, there is ample information on prepping, but if you haven’t put any of that into action, it’s honestly probably too late. Setting up a homestead is not a turnkey operation and takes years. What I recommend is tying up any lose ends to get as mobile as possible. Start applying for jobs that allow remote work. Stock up on medications and any must have supplies. Make communication and link up plans with family that cover local, national, and international situations. These plans should include how to find each other and link up even if you have no phones or internet. Also, for those with the means, I would consider buying on a rotational basis non-stop fully refundable tickets to a country in Central or South America that allows visa free travel. If things deteriorate, and at this point they really could and fast, you may want to leave a major city fast and get far away until things calm down. Odds are, when it is obvious that things are that bad, everyone will be trying to flee. Flights will be overbooked, overpriced, and then unavailable. Having a ticket in hand before a mass panic, as crazy as that may sound right now, is a good hedge. Best worst case, you never have to use it to evacuate. In that case, just cancel it and get your refund or use it and enjoy your vacation. The key is to continue buying and canceling from various airlines on what I’d say is a weekly basis until things stabilize and we are in the clear. You don’t want to have a flight scheduled for July 5th but need it on July 3rd. I know many of you are going to say that is ridiculous and that you can’t leave. My answer is you can do this for no real money down (assuming you listened and got your passport) and you’d suddenly think a vacation is a great idea if cities start to get vaporized. Further, leaving and temporarily living cheaply for a few months doing telework gives you an ample buffer to assess how things are going without being in the potential blast zone. Best case, you go back home and continue life as normal. Worst case you continue life, but there is nothing to go back to anyhow. Choose wisely, but don’t let your normalcy bias cloud your decision. Till next time…
Excellent piece