Attack Window Is Open

Israel Is Ready to Attack Iran

Keep track of my Twitter/X account this weekend. There is a high probability of events escalating very rapidly in the Middle East. In short, Israel has readied its attack against Iran and their attack window opens tonight through this weekend. This attack will not be minor. It is designed to leave an unmistakable mark on Iran. Again, this attack will not be symbolic. Israel has selected targets for maximum effect. The first wave of strikes will most likely come from submarine launched ballistic and cruise missiles followed shortly after by a significant air launched strikes using long range cruise and ballistic missiles supported by electronic warfare and cyber-attacks. This has the obvious potential to quickly spin out of control, so you need to make sure you maintain awareness and any preps are complete.

Israel has been receiving US military reinforcements and supplies in preparation for its attack all week. Reports suggest Israel has prepared additional air defenses in coordination with the US. It has also prepared a range of air launched ballistic and cruise missiles. Some analysts also believe Israel has prepped it Jericho missiles, which are designed to carry a nuclear warhead, in the event things escalating rapidly and badly for Israel. If you check flight trackers, it was clear the US was flying military supplies in all week, but the sorties have tapered off suggesting whatever was being provided has made it to Israel. Now, with everything on the ground and ready, Israel is prepared to launch attacks against static Iranian targets as soon as tonight. This first window since Israel announced a delay of the attack the prior week should be open through the weekend. Israel is also prepping attacks against Iranian leadership. They are seeking decapitation strikes, but it doesn’t appear this first strike will prioritize these targets since it would be too difficult to coordinate. Those will come as follow-on strikes in later phases of this attack, and I believe they will be launched irrespective of whether or not Iran responds militarily.

As this attack occurs, the course of events will take one of two courses. If Iran has not acquired nuclear weapons, it will seek to downplay the attacks and will be forced to endure the damage. Iran knows that without its own nuclear weapons capability, Israel has escalation dominance. No matter how hard Iran hits back, Israel can hit harder. Escalation without a true nuclear deterrent ends with Iran’s destruction every time. As of tonight though, despite Israeli intentions to hammer Iran, indications are Israeli strikes will stop short of crossing red lines with regards to attacking nuclear sites and leadership. Should either of those occur, and we know Israel is a loose cannon, all bets are off and expect full retaliation and war. That said, I suspect Iran did test a nuclear device last week. If Iran has indeed acquired a nuclear weapons capability, expect the retaliation to be swift and sustained. However, I don’t expect Iran to push for all-out war. I think Iran will use Israel’s attack as an opportunity to announce its withdrawal from nuclear non-proliferation treaty. It will justify its need to develop nuclear weapons based on the growing existential threat from Iran and the US. Of course, if Iran does go this route, it will only announce if it has already developed the nuclear weapons. Iran’s belief is that this announcement will force the US to finally intervene and prevent Israel from further attacks. Unfortunately, even though deterrence is the goal, it will fail. If this scenario materializes, Israel will only push harder for a war, which will ultimately materialize as Israeli launching a pre-emptive nuclear first strike. Considering all of the above, the entire region is set for a lose lose outcome where it leads to the use of nuclear weapons in the Middle East sooner or later. By sooner I mean a very rapid escalation within days to weeks By later I mean only one to two years.

With all this in mind. Things could get out of control very fast in the coming hours, days, and weeks. Please do take all precautions, stay alert, maintain awareness, and complete your preps like topping off all fuel.

Stay tuned,

D.t.Y.