Grain Deals, Blockades, and Dogfights

The Dangerous Door Opened for Ukraine and the World

Ukraine’s attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge has triggered a chain of events that again, are taking us into very dangerous waters.  Almost immediately, the attack precipitated a Russian retaliation that absolutely pummeled the Black Sea coastal region of Ukraine and ended the grain deal, which previously allowed for safe passage of approved ships to and from Ukraine.  Despite Russia announcing the grain deal was dead, there were still some hopes of reviving it for a very short while.  However, it quickly became clear the retaliation ended any hopes of reviving the grain deal considering the port infrastructure is now smoldering ruins.  Further, Russia has imposed a blockage of Ukraine’s coast and has initiated plans to sell Russian grain to cover the shortfall from Ukrainian stores.  The immediate impact of these moves increases the pain for Ukraine and will exasperate food shortages globally, which should be fairly obvious.  However, I like to focus on what others cannot or will not.  In this case, I want to discuss how this new development creates unforeseen dangers for escalation not previously in play.  These trip wires, if crossed, could lead to rapid escalation in the war and involvement of NATO.  Thus, the odds of an all-out world war with Russia breaking out just moved another notch higher.

For context, the recent NATO summit in Vilnius ended with disappointment for Ukraine.  Not only was it not going to become a NATO member anytime soon, but the Europeans made it abundantly clear that their patience was wearing thin, and they were not signing up for a war with Russia.  For Ukraine, this effectively means they are screwed.  They were losing the war prior to Vilnius but were optimistic of NATO escalating and coming to their defense.  After Vilnius, Ukraine has had to start to sober up, realize what it has done, and begin to face the consequences of being defeated by Russia.  This has left Ukraine desperate and extremely dangerous to the world.  I say that because their only hope now is to conduct an operation designed to trigger Article 5 and bring NATO into the war.  This would lead to World War 3 and incalculable devastation for the world.  I have written extensively about this in previous letters (please see my Substack content) and I see good evidence this is indeed what they are doing.  This latest escalation only increases the odds they will be successful.

The evidence is starting to pile up and create a trend to support my theory.  Prior to Vilnius, I believe a Ukrainian false flag attack against the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant was thwarted after the plan became public.  Then on July 14, Russia accused the West of sponsoring "nuclear terrorism" after authorities said a Ukrainian drone had struck the western Russian town of Kurchatov, where a nuclear power station is located.  The Ukrainians had little expectation of causing any kind of serious damage to the power plant but were successful in raising the ire of Russia and getting it to lash out at the West (NATO).  Then came the attack on the Kerch Bridge, which they knew would be a propaganda victory but would invite a heavy Russian response.  However, I cannot say if they predicted a blockage being reimposed.  Either way though, this was the result.  I focus on the blockade because it creates a previously absent opportunity for Ukraine to trigger Article 5.  Specifically, if any ship flagged under a NATO member is attacked, this could be used to falsely blame Russia and trigger Article 5.  I am particularly sensitive to the use of ships in false flag attacks because by their very nature of being at sea there are few witnesses, and the details cannot be readily verified.  Further, how ships are flagged is a murky business, which seems to fluidly change as necessary to transit, avoid taxes, etc.  Greece, a NATO member, is the first country that comes to mind in this regard.  I’d swear every merchant ship is always somehow flagged through Greece and/or Panama even if it is not overtly sailing as such.  There is also a very long precent for alleged attacks on ships being used to justify entry into wars.  The USS Maine and the Gulf of Tonkin Incident are two examples of the US using false flag attacks on ships to justify entry into wars going back a century.  In addition, there are many similarities to the sinking of the Lusitania.  Even though the ship’s sinking did not directly lead to the US entry into World War One as expected, outrage from the incident no doubt was a contributing factor.  Remember, despite the fact the Germans had repeatedly warned ships to avoid the area and the ship was covertly carrying munitions for the war effort making it a legitimate target, it was spun as a heinous unprovoked murder of over a thousand “innocent” lives.    

Disturbingly, a staged or actual attack on a ship would not be hard to pull off.  The simplest way to do this would be to get a ship flagged under a NATO country to simply sail into the exclusion zone after telescoping that it may be carrying weapons or contraband to entice a Russian intervention and/or call Russia’s bluff.  If it hits a mine or is struck by a missile or torpedo, despite Russia being arguably justified, they have their incident.  Now, the naysayers will immediately point out that no one is going to do that because it would be suicide and they would be right.  However, it is not necessary to have anyone aboard.  Autonomous navigation or simply conducting a covert debarking well before the exclusion zone would suffice.  If Russia does not interdict the boat, they could always have a crew ready to reboard and dock the ship.  Ukraine would also have the option to simply abandon ship before intentionally striking a mine or scuttling the ship.  A rescue team to pick them up could easily be preplanned and they could make any wild claim as to the number of “innocent lives murdered by Russia.”  Skeptics would also be likely to point out that the US would not allow this, but again, I must point out facts to the contrary.  The US had no problem launching a barrage of missiles into Syria after a blatantly fake chemical attack was staged in a rebel-controlled suburb based on nothing more than easily refutable videos uploaded to social media.  Speaking of Syria, the US has also been engaged in very provocative air engagements with Russian aircraft despite the US blaming Russia.  Just today, information has emerged that a US fighter jet acquired radar lock on a Russian jet, which is just short of shooting the jet down.  If you do not see this as an act designed to trigger a fight or at least escalation, which will still lead to a fight, you are blind.  The US has also had no problem carrying out a massive state sponsored terrorist attack like blowing up a pipeline, lying and blaming Russia, and then backtracking and lying blaming Ukraine when the first lie failed.  They also didn’t seem to mind that Ukraine blew up a dam and were happy to go along with the utterly absurd narrative that Russia blew up their own dam to wash away their defensive lines, flood their territory, cut off water to Crimea, and create the potential for cooling ponds to drain and nuclear reactors to melt down to narrow the river crossing for Ukraine. 

Folks, the powers that be lurking within the darker corners of the US government are very much in favor of escalation and the Ukraine is desperate.  If Ukraine and the CIA can create the context, they will run with it the narrative all the way to Armageddon.  As such, I understand why Russia enacted the blockade, but I am very worried about the opportunities it has now created for the Ukraine to exploit the situation.  Continue to monitor this closely and start raising questions.

Till next time…