Has US Policy Forced Iran to Develop Nuclear Weapons
The Lesson and Implications of Successful Nuclear Armament
Despite the rhetoric, our worst fears regarding Iran have not been realized…yet. However, how long can we truly expect to sanction and attack Iran before it changes its official policy on nuclear weapons? Will such a historic and proud Persian people forever endure sanctions, attacks, assassinations, and increasing hostile military encroachment around it? The neo-con maximalist policy adherents in our foreign policy circles have now been roundly discredited and their policies have failed. Contrary to preventing large nations from obtaining nuclear weapons, the destabilizing security environment created by sanctions, warfare, covert action, and political isolation have forced nations like North Korea to procure nuclear weapons as an insurance policy against attack, destruction, occupation, and exploitation. Unfortunately, this disastrous policy has done its damage. Although it is theoretically possible for the US to change course, in the case of Iran, it is on the verge of bearing the fruit of its failings. Iran remembers the “Axis of Evil” and has seen what has happened to Libya and Iraq. It knows it has very little time to deter an attack from a nuclear armed Israel allied with the United States, which has only successfully been done to date by nuclear armed nations. This includes North Korea and Pakistan. In our hubris, American foreign policy has created the worst possible conditions, which force Iran to develop nuclear weapons while simultaneously forcing Israel to rapidly initiate a war to defeat Iran before it obtains a breakout capability and nuclear deterrent. The sum of all of this will ultimately be the breakout of a massive Middle Eastern war with the potential to go global. This war could be initiated by Israel as soon as next week.
The consequences of a war with Iran are grossly underestimated by Americans and their policy makers alike. Americans have a distorted perspective on Iran and incorrectly map it mentally in size, population, and capabilities to Iraq and Afghanistan. This is a huge mental error but extends to even senior leadership within the State Department and Pentagon. To be clear, Iran is much larger and more populous than either Iraq or Afghanistan. Iran is roughly 2.5x the size of Texas and would cover a quarter of the lower 48 states per the below map. Iran also has a growing population of 88,386,937 people with a median age being roughly 33 years old. Further, about half are male making a large pool of potential military aged men. Economically, despite harsh and widespread sanctions, Iran is no slouch. Iran has built a respectable tech and industrial sector benefiting from Iran’s large petroleum reserves and boasts a growing GDP of over $1.3 trillion. This translates to about a 3-4% growth rate annually in comparison to Europe, which has contracted by a third over the last decade. Despite persistently high inflation the country runs at about a 9% unemployment rate, which on global standards is actually not too bad. Unlike the US, Iran has a relatively balanced budget and runs a sustainable deficit with significant reserves. It also has a very balanced ratio of imports to exports. When it comes to technology, it has a mature aerospace sector that includes rockets, manned and unmanned aircraft, and even satellites. Iran also has demonstrated a mature domestic nuclear power capability. Iran’s tech and industrial programs are by no means cutting edge, but they have done very well under the restrictive conditions imposed upon it to develop both capable and potent weapons. All said, Iran is far more significant than the West would like to admit and presents a far more capable, dangerous, and difficult adversary to defeat. In fact, at best, America could only achieve a Pyric conventional military victory over Iran and never successfully occupy Iran. Nonetheless, America, led by the nose by Israel, is being drug into a cage match with Iran, which will prove to be catastrophic for the future well-being of the US.
(Source: CIA Factbook)
So, as a nation with a growing economy and population and plenty of natural petroleum reserves to provide ample cheap power to fuel this growth, would Iran opt to embrace nuclear weapons at this late stage of the game? There is a reasonable theory in security policy circles that argues nations like Iran have much more to lose than gain by obtaining nuclear weapons. Further, nations that consider Iran an enemy also have a lot to lose by engaging in actual war so won’t allow a situation to escalate to the point of all out war since no one benefits. In short, the theory posits that when nations are doing well and making money, no one wants to upend that status quo. However, the reality is far more complex than overly simplified security studies theories. I do believe Iran would prefer to maintain some level of peace and avoid war. From Iran’s perspective, they see nations like Israel and the US as collapsing and considering Iran’s multi thousand-year history, they have good reason to believe they can just outlast the West. Simply put, Iran’s adversaries are waning while they are waxing as a power. Despite this seemingly having near term benefits for Iran, this will ultimately prove to have created the geo-political conditions on the ground that will shift the nuclear calculus for Iran.
Iran’s adversaries, primarily Israel and the US, are not content in allowing status quo to continue. In particular, the small psychotic and highly paranoid nation of Israel is terrified of the fact Iran has continued to grow in strength. Most recently, due to the war in Ukraine, Iran has been the unintended collateral beneficiary to the ill-guided, if not outright imbecilic, American foreign policy against Russia. The result of US policy has been to force closer cooperation between Russia, China, and Iran. With this has come a windfall of money, investment, technology, and advanced weapons. This has provided Iran with leap ahead capabilities neither Israel nor the US adequately foresaw or planned for resulting in the need to completely recalibrate the security calculus for the region. Had Iran progressed along a controlled glidepath, there may have been some inherent stability and rebalancing in the region. Unfortunately, the rapid advancement of Iran has eroded Israel’s qualitative military advantage and enabled Iran for the first time to be able to asymmetrically face off against Israel in a way that allows it to effectively project power against Israel proper. Most recently, we saw this with Iran’s unprecedent retaliation against Israel using a mix of drones and missiles to attrit, overwhelm, and successfully strike multiple Israeli targets with high precision. Make no mistake, this is an intolerable condition for Israel, which has very clearly threatened to use nuclear weapons should this have escalated. In fact, the reporter Pepe Escobar has made a series of highly controversial claims that very high level and reliable sources confirmed to him that Israel actually did attempt to use a nuclear weapon in its strike against Iran but was thwarted at the last minute by a surprise Russian strike. I cannot confirm whether this is true or not but can tell you that Pepe stuck to his claims and that there was a significant flurry of activity that was highly suggestive that his sources may have been at least partially correct. For a deeper analysis of this, see my Substack report, Chilling Reports Emerge from Pepe Escobar that Israel Attempted to Attack Iran with a Nuclear Weapon. Either way, Iran isn’t stupid, and neither is Israel. Israel now see’s Iran as an existential threat that is gaining power by the day and at least publicly continues to announce that it believes Iran has been secretly developing nuclear weapons and therefore must be destroyed using any and all means necessary. To date, this has included numerous high-level assassinations, sabotage, covert attacks using proxies, and even direct state on state attacks. Increasing the pressure on Iran has been the storm clouds of the US over the entire region that rain political, economic, and military attacks against Iran daily. Under the shadow of these dark clouds lie countless military bases containing ships, subs, aircraft, troops, and missiles as well as sanctions, a coalition of hostile Sunni Arab states, and additional covert and direct action against Iran and its allies in Iraq and Syria. In total, this presents Iran with a persistent and worsening existential threat to its security that rationally should be viewed by Iran as conventionally insurmountable by military means. Iran is proud but understands all too well that the combined forces of the US, Israel, the Sunni Arab states, and additional coalition forces from NATO members to include Greece, the UK, France, and Germany would be far to great a force to resist, much less defeat.
Knowing that the odds are stacked against it, Iran has been left with few to no options outside of nuclear armament to create a credible deterrence. As noted previously, shortsighted US policy and acquiescence to Israel on nearly all matters have created the exact situation we purportedly were trying to prevent. The neo-con maximalist strategy failed in everything but creating perpetual war and escalating conflict. For them, this was as much about power as it was profit, but it was always rooted in immoral evil motives. I personally believe this was about 40% incompetence, 30% corruption, and 30% diabolical design. Iran doesn’t care about though about the why’s. Iran cares that this is a policy reality it must counterbalance against. Remember, Iran has been a keen observer on how this has played out in other countries. On one hand, you have Iraq and Libya, which opted to give up their advanced weapons programs leading to their invasion, destruction, occupation, exploitation, and the execution of their leaders. We can probably add Ukraine to this list as well though the manner at which the aforementioned played out was slightly different. Nonetheless, Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons trusting its security to other powers, and now is paying a high price. The lessons of these case studies stand in stark comparison to nations like North Korea and Pakistan that faced growing external threats that were incrementally becoming more emboldened until they detonated a nuclear weapon demonstrating for everyone to see that the costs of bullying dramatically increased. I’d liken this in very simplistic terms to a pack of thugs repeatedly robbing and assaulting a small man that owns a corner convenience store until one day they walk in, and he has a semiautomatic shotgun pointed at their foreheads. From that moment on, the thugs either opt for a gunfight where they know some or all of them will die or opt to go elsewhere. Seeing the costs are too high, they opt to pay for what they take if they even come back to the store. This is a rough analogy for the geo-strategic scenario that emerged in both North Korea and Pakistan after both shifted to nuclear armament. Now, that said, my caveat is the final chapters haven’t been written. My guess is the West failed by allowing the Pandora of proliferation out of the box even a little bit. I firmly believe these weapons will ultimately lead to only greater proliferation and eventual use in our lifetime. Still though, in the near term, the undeniable takeaway for a country like Iran was you will be forced to submit and taken over or be destroyed unless you have nuclear weapons. Given these two options, Iran’s choice was basically predetermined.
Understanding this, in light of current developments, I think it is fair to say Iran has already made the decision to go forward with a covert nuclear weapons program. Iran has no choice and knows Israel will escalate the war against it. Specifically, Israel is in the process of preparing to open a new front against Hezbollah, which is designed to escalate the war to the point Iran and the US will become involved. I can’t stress this enough, pulling the US into the war against Iran is the primary objective of Israel’s war plans. Israel knows that it does not have the conventional power projection capabilities to deal Iran anything close to a decisive blow. As such, Israel must manipulate the situation so that the US military assumes the burden of directly confronting Iran. The only hope Iran has to deter or defend itself against the US and a nuclear armed Israel will be to obtain its own nuclear weapons. On this note, don’t expect to see Iran first detonate a nuclear device. Iran has what many believe is a turnkey capability compliments of the North Koreans. If true, it would explain why after Israel attacked Iran, an unprecedent meeting took place when a North Korean delegation flew to Iran to hold secret meetings. As of now, my assessment of this meeting was that it discussed instituting the transfer of nuclear weapons to Iran.
The paradox of US foreign policy is that the more the US intervened to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon the more likely it made it that Iran would obtain nuclear weapons. The conditions we created have not only failed to stop Iran from mastering the technology necessary to develop a bomb, but it has created the instability and threats that necessitate one. Very shortly, we are about to not just witness, but become party to a major war that was begun in Gaza but will soon spread to Lebanon and Syria. From there it will spread to Iran and potentially across the entire region and then the globe. The linkages and alliances, like WWI, have the potential to spread this war far beyond the current theater at a dizzying speed. I have previously discussed offramps and alternatives to war, but I believe those windows have closed. Decisions have been made. Now we wait for Israel to begin its war against Hezbollah. When this is over, unlike many others, I do not see a clear victor. I see Iran, Syria, Lebanon, and most of Israel destroyed. I think Damascus will cease to exist with Tehran fairing not much better. As for Israel, I think it will still be standing, but nearly destroyed after suffering horrendous losses. As for the US, I see the end of the American era. As a best-case scenario, the US will no longer be able to effectively project military power, will be economically devastated, and be facing significant internal instability. Again, this is the best-case scenario so prepare accordingly.
Stay alert…things will soon begin to happen fast,
D.t.Y.