How the War in Ukraine Will Ensure the Coming War with Iran Will Come Sooner, Be Far Deadlier, and Reshape the World

Wars have a funny way of taking a course of their own choosing and causing unintended and unforeseen consequences. The war in Ukraine has been no different in this regard. All across the globe the old geopolitical order is crumbling as the resultant collateral damage. In addition, with change comes confusion, chaos, and new threats until the dust settles and a new order emerges. Today, I want to discuss how the war in Ukraine is linked to destabilization in the Middle East and why it matters for the US. What isn’t discussed and kept from the headlines is far more important than what does make the evening news soundbites. For decades, the Middle East was center stage for attention and conflict but has taken a back seat to the latest edition of America’s imperial forays in Ukraine. Despite the region being “forgotten” by the propagandists, what has been occurring there should be very concerning to the world.

Let me start by stating clearly that I approach this from the premise a war with Iran is a foregone conclusion. Ironically, this outcome is exactly what I am working to alter because from the perspective of Western interests, this war will prove to be even optimistically, a disastrous pyrrhic victory. Despite my warnings, I have little hope of being heeded. The best I can do is speak to those that can hear so that you can make informed choices to insulate yourself. You will see, the only questions will be how bad and how soon. When this war breaks out, it will not be a small skirmish, but will metastasize across the region with global impacts. It will set the stage for the final showdown with China and the dawn of a new order across the globe for better or worse.

Let’s start our discussion pre-Ukraine conflict so that we have a frame of reference to understand just how much has changed while no one was looking. For the sake of a policy-oriented discussion, I am going to use my pre/post break point as roughly the transition period between the Trump and Biden Administrations. I know this doesn’t align perfectly with the timing of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but it is the Administrations in Washington that ultimately own the events during their tenure in office even if they began far earlier. Without being sucked down too many rabbit holes regarding the hows and whys, the general game board was set as follows. Syria was mired in a civil war sponsored primarily by the West, Israel, and some of its Arab neighbors like Qatar and Saudi Arabia. The need to sponsor (as the Free Syrian Army) and then fight ISIS had remained Washington’s schizophrenic policy justification to illegally occupy western Syria and effectively steal oil. Russia had been forced to enter the conflict in Syria to stabilize President Assad’s government and stop the CIA backed ISIS terrorist group from taking over the country. Syria’s neighbor Iraq was left broken and dysfunctional with the much-degraded US presence being quickly overshadowed by the growing Iranian influence. Like in Syria, US policy to maintain a military occupation force hung on the claim it must remain to fight the terrorist group it created called ISIS. In northern Iraq, a semi-autonomous region called Kurdistan, Washington enjoyed its strongest footprint by supporting the Kurds much to the chagrin of Turkey. While the US mitigated Israel’s fear of Syria and Iraq by effectively destroying both countries, Israel was improving relations with the Emirates and Saudis. This didn’t end the Palestinian conflict or the growing presence of Iran in Syria and Lebanon but did probably buy the Israelis some time. Israel was also terrified, to the point of paranoia, of everything Iranian. Anything that even remotely helped or strengthened Iran was seen through an Israeli lens as an existential threat that must be stopped at all costs. This led to what numerous insiders claim were narrowly averted direct attacks on Iran by Israel. Next door, the Saudis were still in good graces with the US, selling us oil in dollars, bombing Iranian backed Houthis in Yemen, and defensively oriented against Iran. They had also opened quiet talks to normalize relations with Israel by rallying around Iran as their common enemy. Turkey was playing all sides using the conflict in Syria to gain leverage in dealing with its Kurdish problem. Further, Turkey kept a foot in Brussels with NATO and the other in Moscow to balance the competing powers for its own strategic benefit. Then there was Iran. Iran was masterfully dancing around the incompetent morons at the US Department of State to skirt sanctions while diligently working to strengthen its technological and industrial bases. Specifically, Iran had been working hard to improve its drone, missile, and nuclear technologies despite repeated attacks on its scientists, leaders, and infrastructure. Also, Iran was quietly building a parallel economic coalition in the Middle East through engagement with BRICS nations. I also should mention Afghanistan even though it is technically not in the Middle East. Afghanistan was still occupied by the US, completely corrupt, and thoroughly dysfunctional. As a result, the Taliban had grown in power to the point it was obvious to even the blind that the days of the US occupation were soon to be over. Despite that, the Taliban were still tied down fighting domestically and unable to pose any serious threat to Afghanistan’s neighbors like Iran and Pakistan. Again, this is a very rough 50,000-foot view of the situation in the Middle East when the Trump Administration was removed from office.

So, what has changed? Politically, it is always expedient to blame the other guy and many times there is merit to the accusation since policies are a continuum and not developed and exited in a controlled bubble. Nonetheless, during Biden’s Administration, we have witnessed what might be called a total collapse of American foreign policy across the Middle East and world. The collapse of American influence was obvious to all as the US conducted an incredibly embarrassing and hasty retreat from Afghanistan in what was the biggest American military failure since Vietnam. The Taliban had just dealt the US a strategic defeat and there appeared neither the appetite nor the ability to do anything about it. Following up on that disaster and desperate to change the channel on the news cycle, Ukraine appears to have become the next target for the CIA and Pentagon to maintain their lethal authorities, funding, and the enterprises of the American security state. Rather than trying to avert what was obviously going to become a bloody and disastrous conflict, the US pressed the accelerator on hawkish policies toward Russia and all but force Russia to invade. This brought us the war in Ukraine and the host of destabilizing effects it has had across the Middle East. In the period of just a year, dramatic changes have occurred more or less unreported and therefore, unnoticed in the West. These changes all but ensure that if NATO does a Kabul and turns off the lights in Kiev leaving the Ukrainians to marinate in the CIA disaster they bought into, Iran is next up for demolition.

We can debate which change will ultimately prove most consequential, but here are the core issues I see. What I think is most consequential to the geopolitical order is that Beijing has now replaced Washington as the primary buyer of Middle Eastern oil and subsequently, as the primary political power now in the region. Let that sink in. Washington is no longer seen as the core arbiter in the region and Beijing has negotiated more peace in the Middle East in a year than the region has seen in a generation. Most pivotal is the re-establishment of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran and the re-entry of Syria into the Arab League. This didn’t have to be. It was the hubris of the West that directly led to this. Despite the massive wealth Washington’s appointed dictators of the various Arab countries have accumulated, they have grown tired of the Tel Aviv-Washington policy of perpetual chaos and violence to keep the nations of the region weak, divided, and controlled. This may very well have continued, but Washington’s suicidal COVID policies and then economic warfare against itself “to isolate Russia” re-routed the world’s energy markets to the East. Underlying this was the growing economies of China and India and the waning economies of the US and Europe needing more and less oil respectively. Adding insult to injury was the hostility of the West toward the use of hydrocarbons for energy, “Climate Change” insanity, and the outright hostility of Biden and the Democrats towards Saudi Arabia. As a result, the Arab nations suddenly had real options to bowing to the dictates of Washington and have walked away. Since that break, they have signed major deals that have dealt one blow after another to core US interests. The most vital of these have been the agreements to trade oil in currencies other than the US dollar. The “Petro-Dollar” has been one of the single greatest enablers to the debt fueled cocaine party America has enjoyed since the end of World War II. Without it though, the US will suddenly face skyrocketing inflation, unpayable debts, and an economic collapse leading to the pullback of the US globally much as former great powers like Great Britian experienced after it too overextended and had to watch its empire collapse.

With the US in retrograde, China has filled the vacuum making deal after deal pumping billions into countries like Iran. Despite its protests, the US has been impotent to do a thing about it. The US is overextended with the tar pit it jumped into in Ukraine. Not just the US, but NATO in its entirety is bankrupt and out of ammo and everyone knows it. NATO is in no position to fight in both Ukraine and the Middle East. Adding to this is the collective effect of decades of unqualified diversity appointments and retrenchment of a political elite, which have left the US diplomatic core a hollow vapid cesspool of woke propagandists incapable of independent thought or effective policy formulation. Their simpleton regime of control by sanction has finally run its course, proving the punitive strategy as ineffective as it now has shown to be counterproductive. To no one’s surprise, a policy completely reliant on bullying ultimately failed and forced nations to seek alternatives to the US. From this, countries like Iran found takers resistant and equally alienated by Washington’s asinine policies like China and Russia willing to welcome them. These countries gradually established economic ties that broke the chains of bondage to the dollar, a weapon Washington has wielded without abandon. With those newfound sources of revenue and wealth, countries like Iran suddenly began to heal and emerge from decades of Western imposed isolation and oppression. This has been most apparent in their technological progress in the field of missile and drone technologies, which are in great demand by Russia in its struggle against NATO. This marriage has enabled the transfer of technology, weapons, and money to and from Iran in ways just months prior to the outbreak of the war in Ukraine that were unthinkable. Further, technology is something very difficult to take back once it has proliferated. Israel knows this and is terrified. Their entire security calculus for Iran’s military development was shattered by the war in Ukraine.

This leads directly into why the war with Iran will occur and will now be far more devastating. Israel knows that Iran has reached a point of military breakout and I don’t even mean respective of nuclear technology though it undoubtedly has also been able to accelerate its development in this area too. I mean that Iran is a country far larger and more populus than Israel and it possesses far more resources. Unconstrained, its economy, military, and industrial base will exponentially grow in the coming years and far exceed Israel’s ability to keep pace even from a conventional military standpoint. When coupled with growing economic ties with China and the natural exchange of military technology, this could prove to be an insurmountable foe in the very near future for Israel. That sober assessment means to Israel that time now is effectively against it, and it must be ready to attack Iran as soon as possible. This could also occur in other Middle Eastern countries no longer beset by the constant meddling and destabilizing effects of the US and its CIA and military apparatus. Syria in particular will begin to heal and strengthen creating an even bigger threat to Israel as an Iranian ally all while countries like Saudi Arabia and Iraq pursue more independent policies focused on internal stability and growth.

For every action, you can expect a counter reaction. In this case Israeli leadership is now actively stating it is seeking a Russian defeat in the Ukraine. I believe this is a serious miscalculation on the part of the Israelis and is not grounded in good rational realpolitik, but in paranoia and hawkish control in their government. In practice, this appears to have taken the form of Israeli aid to Ukraine that many believe now include advanced weapons and technology. If true, then there is every reason for Russia to remove the constraints and limitations on what has been a very stable and calibrated approach to its policies in the Middle East. Russia has been a king maker keeping the peace between countries from Turkey and Syria to Iran and Saudi Arabia. One could easily see Russia transferring much more advanced air defense systems to both Iran and Syria as a warning for Israel to backoff. Russia could also begin to actively support Syrian air defenses against the repeated Israeli air raids, which will lead to the loss of Israeli warplanes and drones as well as serious limitations on their ability to operate over regions of Syria. This will allow Iran to further strengthen its proxies in Syria like Hezbollah making another outbreak of a war in Lebanon likely. Turkey in all of this is the wild card. I see them continuing to play both sides, but in the end, I see a resurgent desire to move away from the secular West and rebuild the Ottoman Empire, which will likely pit them against Israel and the West when push comes to shove. In addition, when Ukraine loses and must sue for peace, every single country that piled in against Russia is going to pay a price and the US won’t be able to bail them out. The loss in the Ukraine is going to fracture NATO and the US influence over Europe and the rest of the world will not rebound. This is the sunset for the American Empire and perhaps, good riddance. Neither America nor the world has been better for its foreign entanglements.

I also want to look at the nuclear rhetoric emanating from the US, Russia, and Ukraine. This serves only to normalize and desensitize the public to the idea of using nuclear weapons and may ultimately have a catastrophic effect Washington never foresaw when it pulled the trigger in Ukraine. With the Iranian conventional threat now quickly approaching parity with Israel if for no other reason than mass, a nuclear strike by Israel suddenly becomes something they may try to justify. In doing so, it only further destabilizes the region and pushes Iran to seek similar weapons. This has already triggered something of a covert arms race in the region with Saudi Arabia and Egypt both quietly developing their own nuclear programs and even the UAE moving towards civilian use of nuclear technology. If the underlying security fears are not mitigated, this has the real potential to go from proliferation to an actual nuclear exchange in the region.

I mentioned Afghanistan earlier as a segway to further highlight why the recent peace that has been brokered by Beijing won’t last. The US, if it can’t control the game board, will burn it. The CIA is very good at burning down houses but is incapable of building them. Despite being defeated in Afghanistan, the CIA still maintains its presence in the country (as a testament to that sham of a war) and continues to pay off the Taliban to do its bidding just as it has done since the 80s. The CIA working with Saudi money is already actively sponsoring Taliban attacks against Iran to stir up new problems, which is their stock and trade. This limp attempt to prove relevant is about all they can muster right now but is proof they still can’t give up their old game. In addition, the CIA is perpetually trying to expand its authorities and power. To do this, it needs conflict. The conflicts justify its existence, funding, and authority. I hope you can see the circular nature of this. As its operation in Ukraine fails and these parasites flee their current host, they’ll need to find a new victim. That host will be the Middle East once more and Iranian blood will be their sustenance. This makes the CIA a natural bedfellow with Israel where they will find their first cousin Mossad is no different in nature or design. Mossad, like the CIA, believes that a strong, healthy, and prosperous Middle East is not something they can easily control so continue to seek ways to undermine this stability and growth through subterfuge, deception, sabotage, and targeted assassinations. Further, it is important to understand this is rooted in an evil Israel policy calculus that ties their security to the perpetual destabilization, destruction, and death of all of their neighbors to render them perpetually weak and incapable of mounting a collective threat to Israel ever again. As such, despite the deals signed between Israel and nations like UAE and Egypt, the Israelis are working every minute to prepare for and engineer a war that will compel and justify the US to enter it and destroy Iran. To this end, Israel has been carrying out even bolder strikes in Syria, seizing more Palestinian territory through illegal annexation via settlements, and is now openly threatening direct strikes into Iran. Israel is continuously striking Iran trying to provoke it to war. Ultimately, they’ll get their wish and the US will cheer as it is suckered into another disastrous war that it cannot afford.

As the world stands, I think this will be timed to occur just after the West tires of Ukraine and it is clear to everyone the war is unwinnable. At that point either NATO escalates to World War 3, or it ditches that war, suddenly demands peace talks, and changes the channel to the new war with Iran in the Middle East. The latter is what I refer to as the Kabul plan…steal what you can, flee the country, never talk about it again, and immediately start a new war to distract from the previous failure and to keep the money flowing. As bad as both options are, I have repeatedly said the better option would be for the Ukraine to seek terms immediately, but even that is temporary and only leads to an even more disastrous war with China after becoming exhausted fighting Iran thanks to the enormous incompetence and corruption within the Western elite (more on that in a future letter). So again, if World War 3 is initiated, all bets are off and we are looking at end game scenarios. If it is averted, then the next move will be to start the war with Iran. This will be necessary to keep those all-important authorities and funding going for the military and CIA as well as to keep the security establishment well-funded back in Washington. I will also detail in a later letter how that will most likely play out, but know now the war with Iran will have global implications. It will devastate the Middle East and very likely could become an existential war of survival leading to the use of chemical, biological, and even nuclear weapons. Iran will lose and be destroyed. Syria and specifically Damascus will be turned to rubble. Israel will prevail but only barely. Much of Israel will be destroyed during the war. In addition to the sheer carnage in loss of life it will take Gulf oil offline, and leave the US completely exhausted, bankrupt, and with massive domestic instability. The Petro-Dollar will be officially finished and lead to skyrocketing inflation in the US. Further, with only Russia left as the main supplier of oil to the world, the Europeans will be forced to accept Russian terms and pay the price for the war in Ukraine. Also, after consecutive wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, NATO and the US will be completely overextended and will have exhausted their militaries and supplies rendering them incapable of mounting any significant military opposition to another peer level threat like China. And this brings it all together. All of this will be to China’s benefit. In fact, it so lopsidedly favors China’s rise to a superpower status that it would be hard not to conclude that China is the silent hand orchestrating and maneuvering all of these pawns. Sun Tzu would be proud! Till next time…