Important International Security Updates for 9/23/2024
Russia, Ukraine, Israel, Hezbollah, Iran, Trump, etc.
Russia/Ukraine: Ukraine continues to fight a delaying action as its forces retreat from core strongholds it has held since the outbreak of hostilities. Ukrainian forces are retreating from cities like Toretsk as you read and the strategic stronghold of Vuhledar has been nearly encircled and will also be forced to surrender or be evacuated most likely this week. The Russian victories are really adding up now and one can see that the speed at which these cities and strongholds are being taken is increasing. As my readers know, I have been very specific about the hallmarks of a conventional military collapse. In particular, it is not linear. Instead, the collapse looks initially like mini defeats that quickly build momentum and compound into bigger defeats that accelerate into a rapid total collapse. The best way I have found to describe this phenomenon is the game of Tetris. One block out of place can be corrected, but a few lead to many and then an exponential failure leading to “Game Over.” I’ve predicted this moment for some time, but now we are really seeing the tangible evidence on the ground playing out. Ukraine’s doomed Kursk offensive was an embarrassment for Russia but has turned into a strategic disaster for Kiev. Now, at the fastest pace since the literal invasion day, Russia is rolling up one town after another and is poised to knock off some of the biggest prizes yet of the Special Military Operation. This is leading to desperation within Kiev and NATO, and we are now seeing Ukraine pull every trick in the book to escalate the conflict enough to trigger NATO’s entrance. This is Ukraine’s last best hope to salvage the war. The latest attempt to escalate appears to be long range strikes against Russian ammunition depots.
If you have not seen the news lately, Ukraine has carried out a number of successful strikes against massive weapons/ammunition storage depots deep inside Russia. At least one of theses strikes appears to have been launched from at least 500 kilometers away. Western press has credited drones with these attacks, but I went to X/Twitter to question the narrative. Despite everyone else seemingly accepting this narrative, I’ve repeatedly posited that the strikes were not done by drones, but rather by missiles. Based on these arsenals having hardened storage facilities, satellite imagery showing impact craters, and the distance covered, I’m more inclined to think these were hit with NATO supplied missiles and crediting drones for the attack is just a cover story. In fact, I think what we are seeing is the first use of the American supplied Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile Extended Range (JASSM-ER) launched from F-16s also supplied to Ukraine. These have the range, the punch, the accuracy, and the stealth to hit these targets. Interestingly, I assess that not only were these weapons used, but they were a soft test of Russia’s red line. Russian President Putin was very clear that if NATO provided weapons were used to strike deep into Russia, it would change the nature of the conflict and officially enter the US and NATO into a state of war with Russia. In response, the US did it anyhow, but just called it a drone strike to give some political top cover and deniability while still reaping the benefits. Hitting big weapons stockpiles is a good way to destroy the evidence too. Nonetheless, I think Moscow knows exactly what we did and the game we are playing. They know we just called their bluff. The question now is will Putin make good on his promise of war or will he continue to take it on the chin to keep the war contained to Ukraine where Russia can achieve a conventional victory?
So far, it appears Russia is taking it on the chin, but this is a dangerous bluff to call. We are literally now at a point where at any moment, Russia could decide that it has had enough and without any further warning, strike critical targets inside of Europe and North America. Further, this only emboldens NATO to take another step and soon enough, it will truly be a step too far. Despite what Russia may hope, NATO will not allow a conventional victory in Ukraine. NATO will continue to escalate to the point that Russia is in a de facto shooting war with it. Russia’s strategic patience is getting to the point it no longer serves any benefit. Once your opponent ceases to recognize your deterrence capabilities and realizes he can strike you with impunity, you must strike back or suffer defeat. I believe Russia is close to scrapping this policy but will go as long and as far as it can in Ukraine in hopes of forcing a favorably diplomatic solution as Europe wakes up to the unwinnable nature of the war for Ukraine. Unfortunately, this won’t be a tenable end state and Russia will now almost certainly have to except it will be forced to fight all of NATO. When it comes to this realization, the missiles will fly without warning so be prepared and watch these events very closely.
Israel/Lebanon/Hezbollah/Iran: It didn’t take long. Once Israel got Biden out of the way and was resupplied, it has rapidly moved forward with its war in Lebanon. Over the past weeks, we have seen unprecedented widespread sabotage and assassination, heavy precision bombing, drone and artillery strikes, and even a special operations raid in Syria against an Iranian facility. At this moment, Israel is in a full state of war against Hezbollah and Iran. What’s interesting is that so far, Hezbollah and Iran have been all talk. Despite Lebanon getting absolutely pounded by Israeli aviation, Hezbollah’s response has been weak and tepid at best. That said, we do know Hezbollah has significant resources and has been preparing for this war for decades. No amount of conventional bombing is going to decisively defeat Hezbollah. Further, Hezbollah has a huge range of missiles and rockets at its disposal that it so far has opted not to use. Despite Israel launching every type of military provocation designed to start a war possible, neither Hezbollah nor Iran took the bait. As predicted though, Israel has now shown its true hand and intentions by just going ahead and launching the war it failed to provoke while laughably claiming to be the victim. The Israelis really do have a love affair with playing the victim card. Now, with Israel on the offensive and attacking throughout Lebanon, the war is upon Hezbollah like it or not. As such, we must ask why Hezbollah has failed to muster any defense.
I can theorize all day. For example, maybe Hezbollah’s command and control was far more damaged and disrupted by Israeli attacks than they have let on. Maybe they are coordinating with Iran and allies and are just waiting for Israeli ground forces to invade before they retaliate. Maybe they are all bluster, and they aren’t capable of fielding more than some random limited attacks. Maybe Hezbollah thinks it can wait out Israel and Israel won’t invade. I don’t know but I do get a sense Hezbollah’s leader Nasrallah is more interested in protecting his own ass than putting up a stiff defense. I also get the same feeling about Iran’s leadership. They are much more interested in feathering their nests and cashing in on the conflict than actually fighting a major war. Sure, they’ll offer token angry words and threats, but when it comes to putting their vital interests on the line to back up their propaganda, the reality has been weak sauce over and over.
This all said, there are still only a few serious scenarios I can see for the absence of any real action by the “Axis of Resistance.” The first may be that they just are not capable. Despite endless propaganda, in reality, the Resistance just doesn’t have the capacity to wage a major war against Israel so is left with just tough talk and token strikes. The second is that whether or not they are capable, the leadership just cares more about retaining power than the people. Iran and Hezbollah will continue to leverage Israeli attacks as propaganda to bolster support for their regimes while effectively doing nothing. This is a tight rope act though because the public sentiment could quickly turn against the leadership fast if they perceive them as weak cowards allowing their nations to be attacked and destroyed. The final scenario is that they are waiting for some event which they think will offer a major strategic advantage. This actually holds water because Iran has for some time seen itself as a waxing power and Israel a waning power as its big brother the US fades from its former global superpower status. More ominously, as I have previously written, I believe Iran has been forced to acquire and or develop nuclear weapons. If Iran has indeed set about obtaining a nuclear weapons capability, it would make perfect sense for them to do whatever they could to buy time even if that meant losing territory in Lebanon. Either way, Hezbollah in particular must mount some type of formidable defense in the very near future or it will no longer be able to effectively function. With the US military quickly massing forces in the Middle East, time is not on the side of the Resistance respective of the near future. Iran is acutely aware of this and knows that without its proxy, it loses a huge amount of geopolitical leverage. As such, both Hezbollah and Iran are running out of time to take real action so the next week should be critical. If Hezbollah does nothing and takes the hits, I’m telling you that more than inability, they are on orders from Iran to buy time.
On a side note, Russia has every interest in seeing this escalate. It will greatly benefit from the US and NATO being spread thin and having to further dilute the money, weapons, forces, and intelligence it is currently providing Ukraine to support the war effort in the Middle East. For the same reasons, China also benefits. In summary, all roads now lead to a bigger war.
Trump Assassination Attempts: Interestingly, the FBI published Routh’s (the attempted golf course assassin) manifesto in which he describes his intent to assassinate Trump and his offer to pay anyone that is successful. Remember, this is an on-going investigation, which the FBI “never comments on” and it is always the FBI that prevents letters like this from being released. Think about the trans lunatic that shot up a Christian elementary school. The FBI has gone to great lengths to suppress that little lunatic’s evil machinations about killing whites and Christians. As such, the FBI is again playing political games. I’d even bet they let that out to inspire other attackers. There was simply no reason to release that letter otherwise based on their past well-established precedent. Knowing this, it is again fair to say we are dealing with another executive agency involved in a conspiracy to, at minimum, make Trump more vulnerable. I hope Trump remembers this if he manages to get elected because he was just a few months ago shilling with Speaker “Judas” Johnson to plus up their budget and buy them a new massive spy headquarters in Maryland. Based on all of this “inaction,” I think we can expect more attempts in the near future. Again, I ask the GOP, what is the “post-Trump” contingency?
On a separate note, the rat Zelensky was on tour around the US today signing bombs we paid for and riding in US military provided aircraft we paid for. However, not one of the treasonous bastards in Congress is calling for his immediate arrest. Are we all stupid or did Congressman Matt Gaetz release to the public last week that DHS was aware of at least one Ukrainian hit team currently in the US to assassinate Trump! How in the hell are we allies with a nation who is sponsoring not just the murder of Americans, but the assassinations of its political leadership! This is absolutely incredible 1984 style memory holing of reality. Please make sure to bring up this fact to everyone. What is it? Is DHS lying or is Zelensky a national security threat of the highest order? A truthful DHS intel report cannot be squared with an “ally” Zelensky anymore than a lying DHS can be squared with a healthy free nation. We must demand answers, investigations, and accountability. Who invited Zelensky? Who is protecting Zelensky and the assassins? This is actual high treason.
The world is spinning out of control folks, and we have a hurricane headed up the Gulf Coast this week. Keep your faith and take care of one another because this fall is going to have world altering events. As things progress, continue to look for updates I post on X/Twitter and my Substack. Please like, follow, and subscribe. It takes almost no effort but enables me to continue to provide you updates, analysis, and advice.
Stay alert,
D.t.Y.