Israel Calls Iran’s Bluff and Takes Out Hamas Leader in Iran
Are We on the Verge of the Next World War?
Last week, with Netanyahu’s visit, I posed several questions. While the world was distracted, I asked if Kamala was Hamas or Mossad. She openly takes a pro-Palestinian stance but is married to a Jewish man creating what appears to be an interesting contradiction. Granted, this is oversimplifying the situation, but the takeaway was that Bibi’s visit and meeting was no accident. He came to get support for his war and permission to launch it. If Kamala didn’t cut a deal and refused him, she’d be as quickly removed as Biden was or Israel just went rogue, and we are on the verge of seeing nuclear weapons used. What I am confident of, is if Kamala backed it, she’d be anointed, and Trump would be sent back to the locker room. Well, based on the press coverage of Kamala here and the nearly immediate events that occurred in the Middle East, I’d say we probably have our answer. Before Bibi even landed, Israeli bombs were falling on Lebanon and within days, targets in both Syria and Iran had been hit. A lot right now must be surmised, but one thing it is safe to say is that the “new” Administration in charge, whoever that may be, gave Israel the green light to attack Iran and take out the leader of Hamas. Time will ultimately tell who the actual person in charge was that made the call, but we’ll know soon.
The outbreak of a major war in the Middle East is again staring us in the face. We have been to the brink before and stepped back, but those bridges have been burned. Very few options are left short of full-scale war between Israel and Iran. Israel has intentionally obliterated all red lines established with Hezbollah and Iran and moved directly to uncontrolled escalation. Israel has called Iran’s bluff, and it is Iran that must make the next move. Should it respond with anything less than a major response, Iran is finished. The regime will be seen as weak and scared and will come under more and more direct attacks from Israel and the United States. However, if it adequately responds, Israel will get the war it has long desired, which will be used to justify the complete annihilation of Iran, its proxies in Syria and Lebanon (potentially Yemen now too), and the complete ethnic cleansing of both Gaza and the West Bank to include the seizure of the Temple Mount. As you can see, both options now for Iran are almost fatalistic.
Iran’s survival, albeit temporary, will be gained from downplaying the Israeli attacks and not retaliating or escalating. However, as I have repeatedly warned, Israel is hell bent on provoking a major war. Despite what Iran and Hezbollah may think they can do to avert it, it’s coming. They are an existential threat to Israel that must be destroyed in their heads. Further, because both sides now view the other as an existential threat, it makes the specter of a nuclear war not just feasible, but likely. Israel will not have enough bombs to finish Iran even with the support of the United States. Israel will have to resort to unconventional munitions to achieve its goals. I know many of you are saying, “no way,” but you need to wake up and snap out of your normalcy bias. The stakes have changed dramatically in just the last three years, which in prior Substack posts I have detailed. Now the use of nuclear weapons is both an option and likely. Further, Iran knows this, and it most likely has taken actions to defend itself against Israeli nuclear weapons by obtaining its own nuclear weapons. If it hasn’t, it is honestly stupid at this point and will pay the price. Either way, the “threat” of Iran created by Israel and the West have become a self-fulfilling prophecy. This brings us to the point we are at now where both sides say they don’t want a big war but continue to carry out intolerable acts of war designed to force a retaliation nearly guaranteed to escalate to a full-scale war.
Now, on the eve of what may become a very violent and rapidly developing situation, the world waits and watches for how Iran will respond. Will Iran blink and de-escalate robbing Israel of another opportunity to provoke a massive war in the region or will Iran respond and demonstrate it too has the ability to strike inside Israel with high precision and effect? If the former, all it means is Israel will continue to push harder and strike deeper inside Iran till Iran’s government collapses or it gets its war. If the latter, it means the entire region will soon be sucked into a major regional war with a dangerous potential to escalate, merge with the war in Ukraine, and become a true global world war. You might be saying, “Wait, what…merge with the war in Ukraine?” Yes, in short, Russia is an ally of Iran and Syria and almost certainly will be forced into this war if for nothing else, then to defend its interests in the region. Either way, Russian weapons and support are guaranteed should Israel heavily attack Iran or threaten Assad’s government in Syria. On the flip side, the US is guaranteed to be sucked into the war on behalf of Israel pitting the US directly against Russia in the Middle East. Thus, by extension, the US and Russia become entangled in a direct conflict and things go really bad really fast from that point on. If you’d like to read more on this, search my Substack articles on Russia, Iran, and Syria.
So, now what? Well, I tell you I don’t like to write “new” posts detailing what I have already detailed unless there is new information that fundamentally changes the calculus. In this case, the new information is the stakes are now higher because Israel feels more vulnerable. Israel has already overextended itself and the US has very limited means to provide large scale additional support. In fact, it is possible the US “Government” told Israel not to attack, and Israel at this point has gone rogue. I can’t rule that out, but I’d say that it is highly unlikely Israel would not have gone rogue unless it had other assurances from people in leadership that they will be backed. This could have been Trump, the military, or even CIA, but they’d need to know they were still backstopped and the White House could be overruled. What I can say is either way, Israel is much more likely to hit whatever targets it deems most valuable conventionally and should Iran and/or its proxies heavily respond, their plan is to go directly to nuclear weapons. Israel will not risk critical infrastructure such as their Dimona nuclear facility being attacked. My “hunch” is this has been discussed in prior back-channel de-escalation talks as “off the table” to prevent uncontrolled escalation, but for this round, I think nothing has been removed from the table as a possible target. This makes things just that much more dangerous. Personally, I hope you have put in plans as I have recommended. If nothing else, you should be most concerned back in the US of this war taking Middle Eastern oil and gas offline should this escalate. This will have a cascade of negative effects for the US and the world. However, the most important threat to watch carefully for is escalation that places the US and Russia into direct conflict. If you see this beginning…and we may not get any warning at all…you need to be prepared for the absolute worst-case scenarios. If you are going to execute something such as an evacuation plan, this would be a good tripwire to use. Again, if Russia and the US get directly engaged in the Middle East, things will start to happen very fast and it’s unlikely there will be time for the brakes to be pumped. All the brake pumping is designed to happen first to avert war. If it doesn’t succeed in stopping the collision, the damage is done, the brakes no longer matter, and events towards world war effectively go on autopilot to Doomsday.
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Thank you again Israel!
D.t.Y.