Israel’s 9-11 Moment
You Reap What You Sow
I cannot understate the gravity of the events today in Israel. The rapidly escalating situation will have profound consequences for the geopolitical order before they have run their course. Much like America on September 11, 2001, Israelis are left stunned by the reality of decades of bloodshed suddenly being visited upon their doors. Just like America, Israelis whipped into a rage for revenge will recklessly race into a greater conflict that will ultimately be far costlier than if better discretion overruled raw emotion. The moves in this geopolitical game are happening faster and faster. The players can no longer think through each move now and have left themselves open to miscalculations. This is where games are won and lost. The consequences for Israel, the region, and the world are profound.
My readers know I have repeatedly warned about the “Kabul Scenario” for Ukraine. I specifically warned that when NATO ran out of options in Ukraine and was facing imminent collapse, they’d walk away pocketing whatever they could, forget the Ukraine exists, and start a war with Iran. See: https://open.substack.com/pub/demosthenestheyounger/p/its-time-for-nato-to-discuss-options?r=2i78uh&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web Well, Ukraine as well as the rest of NATO is not just realizing, but beginning to admit the war cannot be won, just like any sensible person said from day one, and guess what? On cue, all hell breaks loose in Israel. The attacks today in Israel can only be seen one of two ways. Either it was the greatest intelligence failure in Israel’s history, or it was deliberately allowed to transpire. If the former, years of arrogance and woke ideology have eroded Israel’s security apparatus to the point of pure incompetence. If the latter, it is truly a diabolical plot for Netanyahu to regain control over Israeli politics while finally getting his war with Iran. Either way, the Hamas attacks were incredibly well coordinated. The attack involved thousands of fighters, thousands of rockets, drones, and missiles, and yet, was somehow “missed” by an incredibly sophisticated intelligence apparatus that blankets not just Gaza, but the entire Middle East. When you add in the fact this clearly had backing from outside actors such as Hezbollah and/or Iran, it becomes exceedingly difficult to write this off as an “intelligence failure.” The more I assess this, the more I am becoming convinced this was a very high stakes “intelligence coup” designed to rescue Netanyahu and his agenda. You can be the judge, but for Israel to somehow have missed this buildup and preparation would be astonishing and would require nearly divine intervention.
Speaking of the divine, I think whenever we discuss the Holy Land, we must consider religious implications because beliefs and religion strongly drive events in the region. Biblically speaking, there are 50-year cycles. At the end of a cycle, there is a return where there is a rebalancing and atonement. This attack kicked off to the day after the 50-year cycle, which began with the 1973 Yom Kippur War. If this pattern holds true, Israel will now suffer as they atone for the blood shed by their policies of the last half-century. Israel has pursued a bloody real politik in the region for decades where they opted to create wars and chaos to weaken and divide their enemies rather than work to find enduring peace. This has led to the deaths of millions and that blood is on the hands of both Israel and the US as well as their militaries and intelligence organizations. Call it karma if you want, but no man will stand to be oppressed in the manner we have allowed the Palestinians to suffer forever. You can support whatever side you want…or no side at all; however, you cannot say that this is not reaping what has been sown.
As for the situation on the ground, it is dire. The attack appears to have caught Israel completely by surprise. Further, Israel seemed to have suffered a degree of denial to the point of paralysis in its reaction. In that window of shock and paralysis, Hamas fighters have overrun nearby settlements, checkpoints, and at least one military base. There are also reports they may have even seized a key military airfield housing F-35 fighter jets and are dangerously close to a nuclear power station, but I can’t confirm. From social media reports, it’s clear Hamas has taken hundreds of Israeli prisoners and killed or wounded many more in on-going street battles. On this point, let me note that if there were not extensive logistical preparations made, the Hamas fighters would have quickly run out of ammunition and would have been forced to retreat. So far, as this war heads into its first night, there is no sign of shortages. As night sets in, this will give the Israeli military the first chance to counterattack. In the interim, Israeli police forces have begun to fight back. Military units seem to be organizing and massing, but I have not seen military units committed yet in a coordinated fashion. The only military units I have seen evidence of being involved to date have been the ones located at checkpoints and bases attacked and overrun. For now, it appears Hamas is in control of the streets and Palestinians have streamed into Israeli neighborhoods. The fighters appear respectably armed and can be seen carrying an array of assault rifles and anti-tank weapons such as RPG systems. These fighters, now inside of Israel proper pose a daunting challenge to clear. Simply dropping bombs on their positions means Israel is destroying its own cities and towns instead of targets in Gaza. Further, the areas seized by Hamas are growing in size and will take significant time to clear. If Hamas can continue to flow weapons and ammunition to its fighters, Israel is now faced with a bloody urban battle that could take weeks and cost thousands of lives before it can regain control of the seized areas.
Hamas has also made extensive use of rockets, drones, and missiles in a coordinated manner, which from what I can tell is a first. Let’s start with the rockets. Israel’s Iron Dome system, designed to intercept rockets seems to be failing. Numerous rockets have struck throughout Israel resulting in extensive damage and injuries. The failure could simply be the fact it was overwhelmed and ran out of missiles. Some estimates put the number of rockets fired at over 5,000. I have no way to corroborate the counts, but its clear “a lot” of rockets were fired. These massed fires may just have been too many rockets and/or Iron Dome may have also just run out of interceptor missiles. Another, more dangerous situation may also be in play. The fact rockets are making it through the defenses may indicate Hamas has received support (most likely from Iran) on how to modify their rockets and attack profiles to defeat the system or employed even more sophisticated electronic countermeasures. If true, this is a far more dangerous evolution for Israel and effectively renders their billion-dollar air defense system useless. Drones have also made their way onto the battlefield in an effective way. I watched videos of Hamas drones knocking out Israeli remote-controlled machine-gun positions located on checkpoint towers as well as knocking out Merkava tanks. These are the most significant losses for Israel since their aborted war with Hezbollah in 2006. Drones made short work of the battle positions and tanks much as we have seen daily from the battlefields in Ukraine. As I wrote in previous posts, drones have changed the nature of combat rendering high tech and sophisticated weapons systems useless and easily defeating conventional security defenses like walls and gates. Based on the level of coordination of this attack, I’d assess that we will begin to see numerous videos of high value Israeli targets being destroyed by simple drones. These may include tanks, radar and missile sites, and even aircraft on the runway along with troop positions, command centers, and communication or power infrastructure. Along with rockets and drones, Hamas has managed to get its hands on at least some anti-tank guided missile systems (ATGMs). These are potent weapons capable of knocking out tanks and other armor or hardened positions from thousands of meters away. In at least one instance, it appears an ATGM was used to breach a crossing checkpoint along the border wall. If there is one system, there will be others. These systems will destroy Merkava tanks and can even take down helicopters if employed properly. Hamas could not have indigenously built these systems. These systems must have been provided by an outside state entity. This brings us to the next phase in this rapidly escalating war.
Hamas clearly had to have outside support to conduct this operation. All eyes are on Iran as the sponsor and Israel hasn’t minced words blaming Iran for this. This leads me to assess that Israel, after a long string of escalations and threats, will directly attack sites in Iran as part of a comprehensive retaliation. Iran is prepared for this and will retaliate immediately escalating the attacks into a full-blown regional conflict. Iran also enjoys a strong foothold in both Lebanon and Syria from where it can support Hamas so I assess that targets in Syria will also be hit very soon. Remember, Israel has continuously attacked Syria and sponsored ISIS in a failed attempt to overthrow President Assad so it should come as no surprise that Syria would be very willing to support Hamas. Further, Hezbollah is the primary Iranian proxy organization in Syria and Lebanon and is very capable of mounting both offensive and defensive operations against Israel. If Iran was able to arm Hamas under Israel’s nose, I am assessing that Hezbollah has been strengthened at least tenfold better and is prepared to enter this war if Israel strikes targets in Syria or Lebanon or enters Gaza. I’d expect this escalation in the next 72 hours. Right now, Israel must first callup reserves and mobilize its military. While this is occurring, the Israeli government will be in constant communication with its partners like the United States coordinating its response. Let me be clear on this point. Israel will respond how it deems fit and not how others would like it to respond. Therefore, it may be better to view diplomatic communications as merely informational and one-way.
Based on the nature and severity of the situation, I expect Israel to strike Iran using submarine launched ballistic missiles to hit key targets in its first strike. If/when Iran retaliates and against whom, this will dictate the next level of escalation. If Iran is smart, it will only strike targets in Israel in order to keep Saudi Arabia, UAE, and other Arab nations on the sidelines. It also would delay American entrance into the conflict. However, if Iran opts to strike targets in other nations, such as Saudi Arabia, this will immediately trigger US entry into the war, which Israel desires. Short of American entrance into the war, Israel is prepared to use nuclear weapons against Iran and has already cast this war as an existential threat to Israel’s survival. This is diplo-speak for justifying the use of nuclear weapons. Israel knows it does not have the numbers, mass, or capability to bomb a country as large as Iran into submission without using nuclear weapons so will wield this threat as a means to bring the US into the war on its behalf. If Israel does use nuclear weapons, they’ll most likely be launched from submarines already positioned in the Indian Ocean or Persian Gulf. If this horrific threshold is crossed, all bets are off. Iran will launch everything it has against key infrastructure in the region to include oil and gas installations and American military bases. It will also most likely resort to the use of chemical and/or biological weapons against Israel in response.
This leaves the rest of the world. I think if this war explodes into a regional conflict with Iran, Ukraine is done. Russia has historically kept a certain balance of peace in the region but knows all too well that a war in the Middle East will spread NATO so thin as to render it impotent. This leaves Ukraine, already losing, completely alone, forgotten, and cut off from supplies. Russia knows this and knows that under these conditions, Ukraine will be forced to surrender and negotiate a peace settlement. This also leaves NATO dangerously weak and exposed. Should NATO try to save the day, Russia would be in a much better position to conventionally destroy whatever remained of NATO military forces. At the same time, China has been waiting for its opportunity to settle the issue of Taiwan. With the US and NATO tied down in Europe and the Middle East, there would be little to nothing the US could do to prevent China from seizing Taiwan. You also have a lot of other actors that are wild cards. Turkey in particular may see an opportunity to re-establish the caliphate and wade into the war against Israel or join Israel to attack Iran, which it has been at odds with over Syria and Armenia lately. It’s too hard to call at this stage. Normal people would look at this all as a catastrophe for the US, but they’d be forgetting the value of a big war back home. A major global war would allow the current regime in Washington to distract from its failures and blame them on outside forces while using emergency powers to solidify its power and eliminate its political opponents. In short, a whole lot of governments right now see a war as a means to save their political posterior and this does not bode well for keeping this fight inside Israel.
Folks, this is almost too perfect of a storm. The Globalists want a reset and need an off-ramp from their disaster in Ukraine and failing economies. I believe they’ll take the bait because it allows them some short-term relief even if it will ignite an even bigger problem for the world. If this escalates to all out war across the Middle East, look forward to fuel shortages and massive price spikes, economic collapse, and a whole bunch of death and destruction. This has biblical implications for the folks that track and pay attention. I don’t know how far this will be allowed to go, but it has the ability to fundamentally reshape the geopolitical order in the world and could lead the US into WWIII. If I were you, I’d invest in some good candles, check your food stores, and fill your fuel tanks. By tomorrow, we should have a much better idea on what direction this will go, but don’t expect de-escalation anytime soon. There has been too much blood spilt and Israel is blinded by a lust for revenge. This has a very high probability of pushing the world into a horrific conflict before the end of next week. I will be tracking this closely.
Be safe and kind to one another. Till next time
D.t.Y