It’s Time for NATO to Discuss Options for how the Conflict in Ukraine Ends

Before it's too late.

Since prior to the war beginning, we have been told that Russia is a bankrupt backwards brutal regime.  We have been told its military is incompetently run and that it will run out of ammunition any day.  We have been repeatedly told President Putin is about to die, is about to be overthrown, and is losing control.  We have been told that the Russians have endured staggering numbers of casualties.  We have been told Russia is economically isolated and its economy is crushed.  It appears we have been told lots of lies.  The truth is that President Putin appears to still be in good health, popular, and in full control of Russia well into the second year of the war.  Further, the Russian military does not seem to have run out of ammunition or soldiers and seems to be increasing its firepower and beating back Ukrainian forces all along the front.  Even the Russian economy is proving to be anything but isolated and showing signs of strengthening.  As such, it is time for NATO to have a much more candid and honest discussion about the one “truth” that is too taboo to touch.  That truth is of course the “inevitability” of a Russian defeat.  Before things escalate even further, men of conscience need to step up and begin to speak honestly about the situation and what a realistic end to this conflict will look like (and no, it does not look like Ukraine regaining all of its previous territory no matter how many times that absurdity is repeated…that is simply an unrealistic non-starter).  The world needs to understand the bad, worse, and worst consequences of not ending this war now.  Too much is at stake.  The discussion must begin.

The problem with entering into a high stakes game of brinkmanship without a safe exit is a miscalculation.  If you miscalculated even slightly in what amounts to a game of nuclear chicken, the world pays an incalculable price for the arrogance and ignorance of the few.  NATO pumped up the Ukraine prior to this conflict in much the same way the pumped up the Republic of Georgia.  Then they set them off to “kill Russians” assuring them of their full support and victory.  However, as the gravity of the real world versus the make-believe world of Washington propaganda and CIA deception has begun to set in on the ground in Ukraine, many are now beginning to ask how do we get out of this mess?  A year and a half into the war with hundreds of thousands dead and wounded, a third of the Ukraine blown apart, and the Western geopolitical order in collapse, I believe, is already far too high a price to pay for entertaining the demonic lunacy of our political class any longer.  Do we really want more of this war?  Can we afford it?  Who are these psychopaths that want the killing to continue?  Are they not the real enemy to everyone?  Where does this end?  Folks, I have to be frank, whether you support one side or no sides, you must look at the situation and admit Russia has a real chance of not just “not losing,” but of outright winning this war.  The public deserves to know what the cost-benefit calculus is between pushing to end the war now or going all in.

The first outcome to consider is the one that has been rammed down our throats with such religious zealotry, it almost needs no discussion.  That is the one where the Ukrainian military backed by NATO pushes every last Russian out of the Ukraine, topples President Putin, and divides up Russia into smaller rump states.  I know who has been selling this garbage, but I don’t know who is buying it.  This outcome is utterly unrealistic and would only lead to absolutely devastating consequences for the world to include a possible nuclear war.  Not only are the ethnic Russian populations not going back to anything close to a peaceful co-existence with the rest of Ukraine, but Russia is simply not going to give up Crimea.  Let me say it again, it isn’t happening.  Russia will use all manner of force to ensure it.  Said in perhaps more understandable terms, it is impossible for the Ukraine to achieve its goals, which it currently states as pre-conditions for peace talks.  As such, we have quite a dilemma due to the divergence between reality and the disastrous delusion President Zelensky is living under.  Knowing this, it should be clear to rational human beings that some sort of “lesser than” deal is what will result no matter how the war plays out. The world needs to accept this reality and begin to negotiate an end to the war based loosely on forcing Ukraine to accept the loss of ethnic Russian areas.  Continuing the bloodshed will not change that basic tenant in whatever deal is ultimately reached.  Probing that logic further, one should realize that sacrificing more lives for essentially the same outcome is utterly stupid and has a higher probability of leading to even worse terms for Ukraine.  As such, the best option for both Russia and Ukraine would be to recognize the will of the ethnic Russian inhabitants of what is/was eastern Ukraine and end the nightmare immediately.

Unfortunately, we know that this isn’t going to happen for two reasons.  The first is that our political elites have hitched NATO’s credibility to this war thus, making it an existential conflict for their waning grip on the global geopolitical order.  Closely related to the first point is the issue of egos.  Our political class are genuinely so arrogant and detached, they’d prefer to bankrupt the West and kill 100,000 more good people than to admit they were wrong and failed…or to give up even the slightest bit of power.  They really cannot stand it when they can’t force someone to submit to their will.  That then leaves open the very real possibility Ukraine is forced to continue this conflict to and beyond their capacity to field and effective fighting force.  This is the tipping point where there is little to nothing left to stop Russia from conquering not just the area in the east that it annexed, but the entire country.  Per my previous article, “The Next 30 Days in Ukraine may Determine the Fate of the World,” if the Armed Forces of Ukraine fail to achieve a major victory in its “summer” offensive, it will be unlikely to be able to further field any type of organized resistance.  This is the culminating point where NATO will be faced with a complete collapse of the Ukrainian military and the loss of the war.  It is also the point where they are left with only three …maybe four…options the world should be very aware of because they are bad, worse, and worst…and perhaps, “worstester.”  For those that say no retreat and fight on, I want you to look at what happens if Ukraine loses or wins and consider the downside risks.  Consider, without bias (if you can), what ending the war looks like now by accepting Russia’s original demands versus what it looks like if the offensive fails.  I want to add one more point here.  For those of you fools that are trying to hedge your bets on the “wait and see” with the offensive, I have this to say.  If Russia does effectively stop the offensive, they will exact a much higher price and go much further than they ever would have before.  You can guarantee everything east of the Dnieper River as well as the entire Black Sea coast all the way to Transnistria will be Russian.  On the other hand, if Russia loses, they will also exact a terrible toll by employing nuclear weapons to prevent the loss of Crimea, which brings us full circle back to Russia in control of far more territory than it even wanted to begin with…even if some is uninhabitable.    

The first outcome if Russia wins/Ukraine loses is bad. This is where NATO still refuses to accept the outcome and instead ops to continue the bloodshed out of spite by trying to instigate and support a long-term insurgency.  Let me tell you upfront this is stupid, will backfire, and leave the Ukrainian people in even worse shape.  The only people that benefit will be arms suppliers.  An insurgency will not succeed because Russia will simply consolidate the areas of control to the historical territories occupied by ethnic Russians and expel everyone else.  Further, this will perpetuate wartime conditions indefinitely and prevent Ukraine from ever being able to recover.  This will make Ukraine into Afghanistan for all of the wrong reasons.  Besides the point that it won’t work and will harm Ukrainians more than it could ever help them, it will bankrupt Western Europe and destroy its economy.  Funding insurgencies is almost as expensive as funding full blown wars.  Not only that, but you now have created the world’s largest black market for weapons and a failed state literally on their own border.  It doesn’t take a genius to realize that spills over and destabilizes the neighboring countries.  So, if you are Bulgaria, Moldova, Romania, Poland, etc. you have been warned.  As ugly as that outcome is to all but the petty tyrants that care nothing for the suffering of millions so long as they get their way, it is far from the worst outcome.

The second outcome that could occur is what I consider the “worse” option.  I call this the Kabul Scenario.  Basically, it goes something like this.  NATO and the West continue to dump billions of dollars of money and weapons into Ukraine to keep the grift going despite the growing disaster, death, and destruction.  In case no one told you, Ukraine has become the new Afghanistan in order to justify defense budget lines, paramilitary (CIA) authorities, and top cover for political kickbacks.  This continues right up until it can’t anymore just like in Afghanistan.  Even as the Taliban was taking control of the last city outside of Kabul and marching on the city, the “intelligence community” and the Pentagon continued to lie and pretend everything was fine and under control.  They’ll do the same even as Russian troops are meeting up with and high fiving their comrades in Transnistria.  At that point they know the game is over, Ukraine is obliterated, and they milked it for all it’s worth so, will do just like they did in Kabul.  They’ll pack their suitcases with cash and whatever else they can steal, turn out the lights, get on a plane, and leave.  They’ll then pretend they never heard of Ukraine, instruct the mainstream media to never discuss the Ukraine, and memory hole the entire war.  If they give any acknowledgement at all to the disaster they left behind, they’ll simply announce vapid platitudes like “the bloodshed must stop” and that “there must be negotiations.”  This isn’t the end though.  These destroyers must continue their parasitic existence in a new theater.  If I’m not mistaken, that will be Iran.  So, if the “worse” scenario is played out, expect the same elites that created the war with Russia to simply shift gears to creating a war with Iran.  This war will be disastrous too and will finish off whatever is left of the ailing Western economies, bankrupt America, and leave NATO completely stripped of military hardware.  A war with Iran will lead to the destruction of Iran, Syria, the Gulf Arab States, and most likely a good chunk of Israel.  It also has the potential to pull the rest of the world into it.  If anyone thinks that the oil and gas infrastructure of the region will be spared, they are an idiot.  With Middle Eastern gas and oil knocked offline and zero chance Russia is going to sell to the West at anything less than punitively high prices, the world’s economy comes to a screeching halt.  Oh, and that whole Petro-dollar agreement will be dead.  It’s already close to dead now, but with no Arab countries still standing to sell you oil, there is nothing to trade.  I’ll save all of the highlights for a future letter but suffice to say the war with Iran will overextend whatever is left of the US economy and military leaving it primed to be finished off by China.

This leaves us with the third and “worst” option, which is escalation.  Seeing NATO on the ropes and their prized tool to manipulate Europe in jeopardy, the US might just go ahead and impose a no-fly zone and/or directly commit troops to Ukraine.  This is called the “worst” option because it is World War III.  In this scenario, NATO lobs a Hail Mary to try and salvage its war effort.  Depending on how and where this is applied, there is a slight possibility that if Russia was left alone east of the Dnieper this could succeed, but it won’t.  It won’t because neither the Ukraine nor NATO will be able to leave Russia alone.  They’ll use any temporary stabilization of the lines as an opportunity to just re-arm and continue the fight.  At that point, if it was ever even possible, the fight goes direct between NATO and Russia.  It is at this point America’s European partners fracture and say “enough” and bow out of NATO or the world heads into the abyss.  Either way, the US loses.  The best case at that point would be to see NATO fractured and the US a shell of its former hegemonic self with the Ukraine still losing.  The worst case is it becomes a full shooting war across Europe and North America.  Within a very short time, casualties would accelerate into the millions and the global economy would collapse.  The West would enter a prolonged dark age that would be generational…and this is the best worst case.  The absolute worst case is of course, a full nuclear exchange.  That is why I left open the possible fourth option for a “worstester” scenario.  There really isn’t much to say about it beyond we all die thanks to allowing a handful of psychopathic megalomaniacs with an insatiable lust for power and money to get anywhere close to control of nations and militaries. 

I am open to alternative scenarios.  In fact, I hope there really are rainbows and unicorns and if Ukraine beats the piss out of Russia that will just be the end of it, but that isn’t the reality we are faced with.  Again, the thinking man must realize that this is about the best it gets for the Ukraine win, lose, or draw.  There is absolutely no benefit for the people of Ukraine to continue this suicidal conflict.  At most, you end up territorially with about what you currently control and 100,000 more dead friends, relatives, sons, fathers, neighbors, etc.  If you end it now, the Ukraine will lose the territory it already effectively lost but retain those precious lives.  This IS what winning looks like.  Wake up!  If you don’t take that option now, there is only hell that waits for not just the Ukraine, but Europe, the US, and the rest of the world.  I beg you to please step back from the precipice before it is too late.

Skeptics, haters, and those that long ago succumbed to cognitive dissonance will scoff at my warnings.  They’ll discount me not because they have a better understanding of the war or can bring forth evidence that would alter the equation, but because I simply spoke out against what they were told they must say and do.  This scares me because people that blind will be the same people that cheer the war on to its disastrous conclusion.  They are conditioned by years of fighting JV teams like the Taliban and so incorrectly believe they US can just walk away from this war if it goes poorly and there will be no consequences.  Russia is neither Iraq nor Afghanistan and the US cannot and will not escape harm from this blood bath we created.  The folly of their logic will materialize when the lights go out, the shelves are bare, chaos is on the streets, their 401k is $0, and their kids are drafted and sent to die by the millions in war.  The only sane option is for world leaders to speak openly and candidly about the current situation and what the options for continuing this war longer look like.  Just as I have attempted to outline, it only gets worse, not better from here for NATO so please heed my warnings and share broadly.

My recommendation for my readers is to shed any and all apathy.  You really need to see this threat as personal and imminent.  This is not one you can fence sit or wait out.  You need to use your assets to hit Congress with a deluge of protests against this war.  You need to demand the war is ended while we still have some options.  In addition, you need to watch events carefully.  If you see that tipping point, which is the offensive failing, you know things are about to get very serious.  Look at how options 1-3 will affect you and react accordingly.  I’ve spoken about passports and mobility as well as self-sufficient homesteading so I’ll mention today that you should look at divesting of any “wealth” that is tied up in the American financial system to include savings, stocks, and bonds and moving that wealth offshore and/or into hard tangible assets.  Whatever is left in the system is at high risk of becoming a total loss.  In addition, contrary to what many might think, if you can find a low interest loan with a fixed interest rate, this could be a great time to take out a loan if you have been considering funding a project.  A bad war will almost guarantee higher inflation, which translates to a discounted rate on your fixed loan.  Further, if things get really bad, there is a chance you may never have to pay it back because the institutions collapsed.  I don’t know if that’s a silver lining, but it is a way of saying that even tough times offer opportunities.  The storm hasn’t hit yet, but the sky is very dark.  Don’t wait for the rain to start.