Next Phase of Drone Warfare Will Render All Weapons on the Ukrainian Battlefield Obsolete
As the proxy war in Ukraine ages, it evolves in similar ways to previous wars. The weapons and tactics you begin a war with often look nothing like what you are using when the war ends. Perhaps, the best example of this paradigm is World War 1. When WWI began, armies were literally still using horse cavalry. However, by the war’s end, armies were using chemical weapons, tanks, machine guns, and even planes. The Ukraine War is also experiencing a similar rapid evolution in warfare, which has not been seen since the First World War. When the war began, both armies were conventionally armed with what amounted to higher tech or improved versions of pretty much what we left off with in World War II. Tanks, artillery, aircraft, surface ships, and infantry were the mainstays of the militaries. Add in some modern surveillance technology and precision missiles and you have the picture. However, that all started to change…and change fast…when the first drones started to be used along the front lines. This was the first phase of adoption and may be considered a sort of proof-of-concept or test phase. Since then, we have witnessed an acceleration of the rate of adoption of drones, which has become the driving force in how these militaries are now fighting. This has brought us to the current phase of full adoption and use of drone technology across the battlespace. This includes on the ground, in the air, and at sea for strike, targeting, surveillance, and intelligence gathering missions. The next phase, which Russia will soon initiate brings drone use to a horrifying new level. This is the phase where drone systems truly break out and become the dominant force on the battlefield much like airpower during WWII.
Currently, drones are being used over the battle lines to find and attack targets of opportunity such as heavy weapons, troop concentrations, logistical centers, and supplies. Still though, artillery in particular still rules blasting away and turning grid squares into pock marked lunar landscapes day and night, no matter the weather. No other weapon system in the war has inflicted the consistent level of casualties that massed artillery and rocket fires have across the battlespace. That is about to change. As Russia prioritizes drone systems and begins to produce them on the industrial scale, drones will be even more ubiquitous than artillery rounds and rockets. Kill ratios for many drone systems approach or even exceed a 1:1 ratio. What that means is for every drone used, it kills or destroys at least one target. Few weapons on the battlefield can post such pound for pound lethality and nothing can do it as cheaply or with as little training and support. For example, even if a sniper only takes kills shots and has next to no support, he still needs to be an exceptional soldier often with years of training. On the other hand, a guided munition or missile is capable of reliably destroying a target with precision, but these require immense infrastructure and capital to manufacture, deploy, support, and use. Not only do these types of munitions require a complex industrial base and millions of dollars to build, but look at the amount of training it requires across a huge number of specialties to bring a successful strike together. Remember, to launch such a weapon you must have aircraft, pilots, airfields, radars, etc. All of these systems need trained technicians and a massive logistics tail to support them. Drones on the other hand can be employed with as little as a single operator though optimum employment usually requires a small team. Still though, a small vehicle or a dirt bike, some communication equipment, and a laptop are about all that is required for a team to be operational. With this simple setup, a team can strike with precision across a battle space that is tens to hundreds of square miles. This is truly unprecedent. To help put this in perspective, I recently commented on an Air Force social media post showing off the B2 bomber, which costs an unbelievable $2.13 billion per bomber. To this post I noted that a $1,000 drone can easily destroy it on the flightline before it ever takes off so is useless on the modern battlefield. Our citizens have been screwed on this deal, but I am sure Northrop Grumman (the manufacturer) could care less and is very happy. For the sticker price, the bomber should be producing gold bars and dropping them across the US.
This brings us to the next phase of drone integration into combat. This is where things get spooky. Right now, drones are primarily looking for things like tanks, artillery, and troops in the open along the front lines. They are effective and lethal, but not prevalent enough to be the deciding factor in a battle. However, very soon this dynamic will evolve into one where drones establish total dominance over the battlefield. Let me explain. Right now, both sides are bogged down in trenches engaging in brutal close quarters battle. Heavy artillery, minefields, and dug in machine gun positions maintain a mostly static landscape despite repeated suicidal assaults across no man’s land, reminiscent of World War 1. Both sides are looking for a way to breach this stalemate in a manner that isn’t paid for by tens or hundreds of lives lost per meter of ground taken. Drones will enable the side adopting them en masse first to safely breach and overwhelm these defenses. Let me reinforce this point. The war will go on as a slow slugfest for a while longer, but whoever gets to mass adoption of drones first will gain a decisive advantage and be able to shred the opposing force.
In practice, this will play out by next generation drones using cutting edge sensors and fusion optics (thermal, IR, etc.) working in an integrated swarm fashion by leveraging AI to independently find, identify, select, and destroy all targets in an area simultaneously. Once an area of operation is selected, scout drones will be sent out to map the area and identify all targets. The scouts will then relay this information and a swarm of killer drones will be launched to attack the selected targets. The killer drones will then hit their targets simultaneously. This delivers a knockout blow to the opposing force. One minute there are hundreds of troops and pieces of equipment engaged in battle and the next they are all dead or destroyed. The radio back in headquarters goes quiet. No one knows what happened. The entire sector along the front has been collapsed by the attack allowing the offensive force to simply walk across the battlelines at their leisure. The next thing the defending force will know is a massive conventional force (tanks, artillery, infantry, etc.) is suddenly rolling through their rear areas and they haven’t got the least idea how they got there. This shatters the defense and causes a catastrophic collapse of their lines leading to their total defeat and surrender.
If this sounds like science fiction, it shouldn’t. The swarm technology currently exists. Both China and the United States have been testing this technology for some time, but only China seems to have incorporated it on an industrial scale across their military currently giving them a decisive advantage over the US. With the war as motivation, Russia is quickly playing catchup and is showing signs it may soon be getting out ahead of the world in actual fielded drone weapons. My sources and analysis suggest Russia is working toward this exact goal and will most likely beat Ukraine and NATO to the draw. To Russia’s favor, it developed networked weapons systems decades ago. This established a strong baseline for Russia to layer in modern AI to create true drone swarms. We may see this on the battlefield as upgraded Lancet drones being controlled by yet to be unveiled scout drones that perform most of the target identification, selection, and tasking so that the Lancets can specialize in just attacking the targets. Russia is currently developing a full range of autonomous land, sea, and air drones so it is hard to say, which prototype will ultimately be integrated to perform this mission, but the day is coming soon when we’ll find out.
Similar to Russian counter drone systems to include modified active protective systems (APS) on tanks and armor I previously announced, I think we’ll see the first use of some of these drone systems as early as this fall barring some disruptive escalation that forces the war beyond Ukraine’s borders. It would make sense for Russia to hold back these systems for its offensive to provide maximum shock while not giving Ukraine and NATO any time to develop countermeasures. I don’t know when that is going to kick off, but the initiative on the front appears to be shifting rapidly in Russia’s favor. Gains the Ukrainians fought and paid horrible tolls for are being rolled back while Russia is gaining more ground in the north. It is still too early to say for sure, but it looks like the great Ukrainian Spring Offensive has run out of steam. Ukraine has suffered unsustainable casualties, and its weapons supplies are being rapidly depleted. Further, Ukraine’s ability to defend its airspace has been severely degraded allowing Russia to successfully strike anywhere in Ukraine. With Russia sitting on somewhere between 350,000 and 500,000 reserves that it hasn’t committed, and Ukraine exhausted, it is pretty safe to say the Bear is about to go on the attack. Either way, Russia is not yet at the point where it can deploy drone swarms for knockout blows, but before this war ends (assuming it doesn’t go nuclear first), we will see this terrifying milestone achieved. If this war does end conventionally, it will be the side that fields this capability first, which will render all other systems on the battlefield into obsolete liabilities. As such, the era of manned tanks, artillery, big surface ships, and even manned aircraft is coming to a close. This will be resisted and unevenly implemented, but forced, nonetheless. The side that nostalgically grasps to legacy systems will be catastrophically annihilated on the modern battlefield and this will end all future debate. The era of autonomous weapons is upon us.
Till next time…
D.t.Y.