October 31st Evening Middle East War Update
The War We Will Be Forced to Fight but Cannot Win
Another day, another escalation. Israel continued a ruthless bombing campaign today killing hundreds of civilians primarily in densely concentrated refugee areas of Gaza. At this point, every unbiased observer has been forced to admit what we are watching is a US sanctioned genocide. The egregious war crimes being committed by Israel have effectively cost Israel any sympathy or moral high ground it may have gained prior to attacking Gaza. Worse, the arrogance displayed by Israel and the total lack of any discretion or respect for international law or basic human rights has revealed the true wicked nature of Israel’s government. Adding fuel to the fire were the Israeli intelligence documents leaked that articulated what we are seeing is no accident. Israel specifically planned, prior to the attack by Hamas on October 7th, to conduct a brutal war against Gaza with the goal of completely displacing the Palestinians to the Sinai. Once the area was ethnically cleansed, Israel would seize the stolen land and never permit Palestinians to return. The result of this is that world opinion is turning against Israel and pressure for a ceasefire is growing. However, Netanyahu knows his political career is over if he doesn’t have a bigger war and he may very well end up in jail. A bigger war is not just a means to save his skin and retain power, but it is Netanyahu’s best chance to realize his insane messianic policy and so will force the war past the point of no return. (For more on Israel’s strategy and messianic goals, see https://open.substack.com/pub/demosthenestheyounger/p/israels-grand-strategy-the-apocalyptic?r=2i78uh&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web)
In response to these war crimes, we are beginning to witness the periphery enter the war. Today, the Houthis in Yemen became the first group to say enough and declare war on Israel by firing a mix of drones and ballistic missiles towards Israel. The attacks appeared to have failed or been intercepted and so far, as I can tell, Israel has not “yet” responded. Nonetheless, you will hear cries that the Houthis are an Iranian proxy and thus, we must go to war with Iran. The sponsorship part is true. Iran does back the Houthis and has for years. Iran has provided them drones that defeated our Patriot air defense systems and scored successful precision strikes on airports, oil refineries, and ships in and around Saudi Arabia. Iran has also provided them a full suite of missiles. Some of these drones and missiles have been launched against Israel and/or a US navy ship over the last two weeks. What is most noteworthy is that today, the Houthis apparently used at least one ballistic missile, which Israel claims was intercepted by its top-of-the-line Arrow missile defense system. If true, this was the first actual operational use of the system against a true ballistic missile threat. This is no doubt going to give Iran some pause because I do not believe the Houthis would have launched a ballistic missile at Israel without Iran’s approval. Iran will undoubtedly deny this, but I assess that Iran used this as a way to assess Israel’s air defense capabilities without provoking a direct confrontation between the two countries. I’m also guessing Israel will see right through this and will blame Iran. The US will most likely pile on and also blame Iran, which will only escalate tensions even more and most likely be used very soon to justify attacks on Iran proper.
For those unfamiliar with the Houthis, they are the “rebel” group backed by Iran that more or less controls a good chunk of Yemen despite not being recognized as the official government of Yemen. In addition, these folks are just tough fighters. The US, under the orders of then President Trump fought a covert multiyear war allied with the Saudis against the Houthis and lost (Remember that little fact the next time Trump tells you he never started a war because it is a lie). In fact, one of Trump’s opening blunders as President was to order a raid in Yemen against alleged al Qaeda operatives that was botched and led to the death of a SEAL Team member and the injuries of five other Americans plus numerous civilian casualties and a destroyed MV-22 Osprey. The operation was a disaster. Not coincidentally, in 2014, some years prior, there was a hostage rescue operation into Yemen that also ended in failure. Years prior to that the USS Cole was hit by a boat carrying explosives, which seriously damaged the ship and killed and wounded numerous sailors. In short, the US experience in Yemen has been a disaster and it would well serve us to steer clear of getting entangled in a fight there on behalf of Israel.
Now that the Houthis, a legitimate Iranian proxy, have declared war on Israel, it is unlikely that Lebanese Hezbollah will be able to stay out of the war much longer. Again, I believe the Houthi attack was approved by Tehran. If the Iranians were willing to approve the Houthis declaring war, it can’t be far behind activating its proxy Hezbollah sitting just to the north of Israel. This is the exact type of escalation I have warned of and should concern everyone. As I stated previously, Netanyahu needs a big war to save his skin and is on a messianic mission to wipe out all of Israel’s threats. This is exactly the escalation that will force the US to enter the war. Unfortunately, the US cannot win this war. We can bomb targets and put limited boots on the ground, but we have no ability to project the size of force required to effectively seize, control, and/or occupy the major regions that would be required to “win” such a war. At minimum, this would require the US to hold territory in Lebanon, Israel, Syria, Yemen, Iraq, Jordan, and Iran to name just a few nations. Even at the height of the Iraq war, we had a totally insufficient number of troops to do the job. This would easily require 10 or 20 times more. We simply do not have the forces. To get anything close, we’d require a draft, but that idea would be met with violent opposition and remove the current Administration from office. As such, it is better to not start a fight you can’t finish. I’ll be writing much more on this as the war progresses, but suffice to say, aside from air strikes, the US has no ability to truly affect events on the ground. If we get involved, we are going to suffer some staggering losses that will shock both the US and the world. Any remaining prestige the US retains will be erased. It is a blunder of disastrous proportions, but for the reasons stated, I do believe we are on a course to be sucked into war any day now.
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D.t.Y.