Perfect Storm Emerges Portending Ukraine’s Military Collapse with Start of Full Offensive

Despite reports of Ukrainian gains, this will be the beginning of the end for their military

Readers of my Substack letters won’t be surprised to hear that I have a contrarian take on the massive offensive Ukraine has launched over the last week against Russian positions.  The news wires and pundits are all abuzz about how the massive Ukrainian offensive is punching holes in Russian lines and hammering Russian positions.  The propagandists tell us this is the main event, and the Ukrainians are hitting the Russians with everything, but seem to never explain where this leads or how it ends.  Well, I believe their reports are true in as much as it does appear this is the main effort for Ukraine’s offensive, and they are hitting Russia with everything they have.  Heck, I will even say they have finally made some progress along the front and certainly have destroyed significant numbers of Russian armor and artillery.  In fact, I’ll take it one step farther than the pundits and say in the areas being targeted by Ukrainian forces, they have amassed and concentrated troop strengths that are nearly double the Russian numbers.  I’m not talking about a few hundred more soldiers.  I’m talking about numbers like 60,000 to 30,000 in Ukraine’s favor.  Now, with that out there, I’m here to tell you this marks the beginning of the end for the Ukrainian military.  I’ll even explain the mechanisms at work so we can assess this outcome above mere speculation.  The Ukrainian offensive, despite any progress and gains it may post over the coming days and weeks, will lead to the annihilation and collapse of the Ukrainian military in a shocking manner.  I’ll add to my contrarian prediction that no one else is covering by also stating that I do not believe you will see a long-drawn-out war or an insurgency.  Conventional armies do not fade to grey.  When their core critical capabilities no longer function, the entire organization collapses…and rapidly. 

Yes, these are bold predictions, but let’s look past the current high intensity combat all across the front lines and dissect what is really going on.  Ukraine has amassed essentially everything it could muster plus everything NATO could muster for this offensive.  They literally are throwing everything they have into the fight.  However, the costs have been enormous and are unsustainable.  Despite the massively incorrect and biased Western intelligence assessments regarding Russian military capabilities, the Russians have proven they have incredibly good indirect fire support and have steadily improved on areas they were found to be lacking such as close air support.  Knowing this, launching armor battalions and larger brigades into very narrow corridors cleared of mines in frontal assaults on entrenched positions covered by Russian artillery and air launched fires is suicidal.  Having no air support in particular leaves the Ukrainian forces dangerously exposed…one might even say hopelessly exposed.  I honestly disregard the pundits counts respective of casualties here because simple common sense tells you that the attacker in this case is going to get mauled regardless of what gains they achieve.  There is a term for this type of outcome, and I believe it is a “pyrrhic victory,” which Ukraine can ill afford.

A survey of the death porn I discussed in yesterday’s letter makes it clear through geolocated and time stamped videos that the Ukrainian armor columns are getting absolutely decimated.  You can’t launch fifty-vehicle assaults and lose 60-70% of your vehicles each time and continue that for long.  Armor and artillery are very finite but also generate the significant bulk of the Ukrainian military’s hit power. No modern military, outside of perhaps China, can lose those numbers in any sustained fashion and continue to retain combat power.  Further, NATO can’t build tanks and artillery fast enough to replace the losses regardless of cost and this is without even discussing the drain on the dwindling supply of Ukrainian manpower, which is being bled white.  This leaves Ukraine in the very bad situation of diminishing returns.

In previous posts, I warned that Ukraine should surrender because their only two conventional military options and both lead to defeat.  The only difference was the time and number of casualties.  The first option, which we are seeing, is a hit them with everything approach.  This creates the high burn rate of people and material that is necessary to achieve any gains, but also burns out very fast due to its unsustainability.  This rips the bandage off fast but cannot achieve lasting gains since there just isn’t enough of anything to hold territorial gains.  Ironically perhaps, it salvages the remaining areas of Ukraine not destroyed by conflict because it all ends along the line of contact since everything is expended in an all or nothing battle.  The other option was for Ukraine to retain what was left of its combat force and attempt to delay the inevitable.  This would look like a defense in depth to economize their remaining forces while simultaneously using any bought time to reinforce and bring in more equipment and train more troops.  This would prolong the war, but ultimately end up with a more thorough defeat of Ukraine in depth.  The wild card in the mix is a desperation operation by the Ukraine designed to escalate the conflict in a way it triggers NATO’s direct entry into the war.  I believe this is still on the table and what they will ultimately try despite the only sensible and sane thing to do would be to end the conflict immediately and acquiesce to Russian territorial gains.  Even though it is a hard pill to swallow, it is the right decision.  Ending the war now would rescue hundreds of thousands of lives from being needlessly sacrificed to Russian artillery and allow Kiev to salvage and rebuild what was still left of Ukraine.  Short of this, Ukrainians are facing total defeat.   

On the other hand, while Ukraine is burning through everything it possesses to make gains measured in meters or a few kilometers at best, Russia is fighting what I’d refer to as an economy of force operation.  Others have called this an offensive defense.  Either way, Russia has only dedicated about 50% the troop strength in the areas of contact that the Ukraine has despite inflicting far higher losses.  This also means, that once the Ukrainian gains are made and their offensive runs out of steam, Russia will be sitting on a massive untouched force that will be poised to roll over everything that is left.  With an already existing advantage in men and material, this leaves Russia with men standing long after the last brave Ukrainian has been cut down by artillery fires and that means Russia wins.  Again, despite any Ukrainian gains, in a war of attrition, the army that retains the ability to project force the longest wins. 

So why do I believe this will lead to a rapid and shocking collapse of the Ukrainian military?  Well, for one, it will take Ukraine far longer to rebuild their combat power than they’ll have.  As detailed, Russia, despite the pounding it will undoubtedly endure, endure it will.  When the Ukrainian guns start to fall silent, the Russians will emerge from their trenches good and pissed off. As they brush off the dust, there will be a collective “my turn” moment where Russia then goes on the offensive.  Because the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) will have overextended and exhausted their forces, this will be more of a mop up operation for Russia.  Unlike an insurgency that can persist for decades if it has sanctuary, a conventional military requires an incredible amount of complexity to operate just daily.  As soon as any part of that operation begins to break down, it begins a cascade effect across the entire organization.  Military institutions, by design, are built to be resilient, but all of them have a critical tipping point beyond which they cannot field an effective combat force.  It is just this tipping point I forecast Ukraine will cross if it persists with the current level of combat operations.  Further, and as a result, people generally don’t like to be deceived into a slaughter.  When it becomes overwhelmingly clear the offensive has failed and only achieved limited, if any, progress, the morale of the Ukrainians will break, and you’ll start to see mass defections and surrenders.  I also think the nation is likely to start turning against Zelensky’s regime and NATO if they are smart.  This will lead to protests, riots, assassination attempts, or even a coup if Ukraine doesn’t enter into peace negotiations. 

I’d be remiss without dealing with my cynics so, here goes.  Fine then, let’s say Russia gets the pants beaten off of it by a spectacular Ukrainian stroke of military genius.  I can’t rule this out and it is possible albeit unlikely.  How far and how long do you honestly believe Russia will tolerate its forces being routed?  Seriously, God help us if that’s truly the case because Russia will not allow its forces to be completely overrun and cut off in any manner that threatens a major long-term defeat.  Let me clarify here, I am not talking about Russians making some deliberate decisions to preserve men and material and pull back from an area for the time being.  I’m talking about a decisive rout of its army.  As I have always said, even if the Ukraine wins, it loses and therefore this war has always been futile.  Russia will exercise all options and use whatever weapons it has at its disposal to prevent defeat.  This, as we all know, includes nuclear weapons.  So, if the cynics are correct, this is the absolute worst-case scenario for the Ukraine and the world.  Congratulations Ukraine, you beat Russia and then got yourself nuked.  Great job.  Great strategy everyone.  Cheers.  You morons. 

So, in summary, celebrate whatever gains the Ukraine achieves now because they will be short lived.  The war is reaching a culminating point now faster than necessary based on Ukraine’s burn rate as a result of committing all of its forces and reserves into this offensive.  This will lead to rapidly diminishing returns for the AFU, and then the initiative will flip back to the Russians.  From there, it is only a matter of probably months before the world and Ukraine have to face the reality that it is over, and they must sue for peace.  It is in this period that so much becomes so dangerous.  Desperate men do crazy things.  The rat Zelensky will sacrifice his entire nation and set the world ablaze to save his skin and despite the whole of NATO not being onboard with this suicide pact, there are enough demonic psychopaths residing in the halls of Langley this outcome is not just a probability, but likely. 

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Till next time…