Putin’s Real Objective in the Ukraine:

It’s not what you have been told.

Since the leadup to the full outbreak of war in Ukraine, pundits, politicians, and “analysts” have expounded upon “Putin’s objectives in the Ukraine.”  These theories have ranged from overly simplistic rationale to the theater of the absurd.  Very few voices get close to really looking at the game board from Russia’s perspective and instead opt for the politically expedient talking points of the propagandists.  This chronic problem of Western hubris has repeatedly proven to be the West’s Achilles heel when prosecuting successful military campaigns.  Let me say that again differently.  You can neither defeat your opponent nor win a war if you cannot accurately assess the motives and goals of your adversary.  Simply repeating, “fill in the blank,” is bad, and thus, must be defeated, failed to even diminish the Taliban, and certainly stands no chance of viability outside of the echo chambers of Washington against an opponent like Russia.  In fact, that illogic does not even provide a starting point for negotiation.  As such, for the US to prevail against Russia, it must properly identify Russia’s goals for the war.  This is absolutely critical and to date, have been glossed over, ignored, or fabricated in lieu of more expedient political talking points (a.k.a. propaganda).  If NATO and the collective West fail to recognize and orient on Russia’s real strategic goals, the very real possibility of serious escalation due to miscalculations becomes an all too real potential.  For those that may have forgotten, any further escalation between NATO and Russia has a name and that is World War Three.

Before delving into what I believe is the core objective of Russia’s war, I think it is important to highlight one of the underlying causes of why the West has proven incapable of accurately assessing Russian strategy.  To put it bluntly, one can materially justify the US/NATO military establishment is fundamentally incompetent to the core.  Remember, this is a warfighting alliance that utterly failed to defeat the Taliban leading to a disastrous retreat from Kabul with people hanging on to aircraft as they hastily departed.  The purpose of my point isn’t to revisit the lack of strategy in Afghanistan (that is for another post), but to highlight the lack of any ability to develop strategy at all.  At no point in the twenty years of war in Afghanistan did the US/NATO formulate a coherent strategy making the ultimate defeat of the US/NATO both inevitable and predictable.  Part of this problem was a failure to understand the dynamic of the war from the enemy’s perspective.  This failure alone would have been a massive dereliction of duty of senior officers, but it became a systemic problem when the military failed to hold a single person accountable, even a little bit, for one of the biggest US foreign policy disasters in history.  As a result, the US has, what at this point must be attributed to sheer incompetence, repeatedly failed to differentiate between tactical objectives and strategic planning.  In fact, it appears those terms are one in the same to the officer class, which repeatedly touts its tactical victories in places like Afghanistan and Vietnam over poorly armed and trained fighters while dismissing the need for, and the importance of, having an overarching strategic plan.  Washington sheds the blame for this by finger pointing and socializing the guilt across the bureaucracy, which has enabled it to perpetuate without any accountability.  Perhaps worse, they seem to have no shame using the excuse that “the intent was really never to win” as if that shouldn’t be treason.  So why does this matter beyond wasting trillions of dollars and thousands of lives?  It matters because just as I stated above, the US/NATO face not just strategic failure, but the very real potential of sparking WWIII due to its incompetence.  Further, unlike the Taliban where the US could just turn off the cameras and walk away, a strategic defeat against Russia has world changing implications that will have dire consequences both abroad and at home. 

Returning to the core point of Russia’s strategy, let’s look at what has been bantered about the media and political (I repeat myself) circles.  A popular explanation is Putin has designs on the natural and industrial resources of the Ukraine.  Sure, I’d say it’s fair to say Russia wouldn’t be upset acquiring additional industry, but this argument is as demonstrably stupid as it is wrong.  First of all, Russia has more natural resources than it knows what to do with.  Second, the logic of fighting a war that obliterates the said infrastructure you are allegedly trying to steal kind of defeats the purpose.  How about access to a warm water port?  Well, that is certainly something Russia would consider in its vital national interests to defend, but Putin had already secured that before launching a full invasion.  As such, you don’t need to launch an offensive to defend what you already control.  Okay, well what about Russia wants to rebuild the old Soviet Union?  This argument is so ignorant it is sad I even need to address it.  Let’s be clear, Russia learned it’s lessons from the Soviet days.  First, it isn’t communist anymore and has no loving nostalgia for the days of the Great Terror or spending vacations in Siberian gulags.  Putin did not make Solzhenitsyn mandatory reading in schools because he was trying to resurrect the Soviet communist empire…quite the opposite.  In addition, Russia knows trying to administer the former Soviet republics is a futile endeavor.  Putin understands economics far better than any American president in a lifetime and knows this would be a fool’s errand. 

So, what does that leave to explain why Russia suddenly invaded Ukraine?  The truth.  At the tactical and operational levels, we don’t have to be creative.  Putin has been kind and forthright enough to repeatedly explain in very plain language Russia’s logic.  Russia did not want a war and has always left the door open to honest negotiations.  War was never Russia’s intention.  However, the US/NATO forced a war by refusing to abide by the Minsk agreement while continuing to kill ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine, massively arming the Ukraine for a war against Russia, threatening to admit Ukraine to NATO, and even going as far as to dangle allowing Ukraine to rearm with nuclear weapons.  These conditions created what Russians saw as an existential threat to their country no matter what the West says.  Dismissing this reality neither makes it untrue nor exempts the US/NATO from the consequences of it.  Thankfully, this much is known and discussed by a diaspora of intellectually honest and balanced contributors.  What isn’t readily discussed in the bigger strategic picture.

Remember, I began by addressing the inability of the West to think strategically.  This policy blind spot has led the West to hyper focus, as it always does, on at most, the operational picture in the Ukraine.  This has led to an almost myopic fixation on the day-to-day battlefield, weapons, and finances for the Ukraine at the expense of the far bigger prize.  That prize is NATO itself.  Ukraine has been made just a steppingstone.  I believe Putin has correctly assessed that without NATO, Ukraine is not a problem and there would be no war.  You break NATO, you end the war.  Notice the critical variation on perspective?  From the US/NATO viewpoint, Russia wins and loses on the battlefield and thus, it is all about the killing.  However, from the Russian perspective, Russia is targeting a much smarter policy of fracturing the decrepit and fragile western geopolitical order, which is a true strategic objective.  Further, without NATO, the US loses most of its influence and hegemonic control over its European allies.  Destroying this alliance then would create an opportunity for Russia to re-establish its historic place amongst European powers as the geographical and political linkage between East and West while simultaneously bringing the US down a notch due to what amounts to a geopolitical unforced error of massive proportions.  As such, even though at the operational level, Russia is currently involved in heavy fighting in the Ukraine, one cannot understand the bigger strategy without placing it in the strategic context of how this war can be used to ultimately fracture and destroy NATO.   

Exploring this more, I want to highlight Colonel MacGregor’s extensive commentary on the war, which has been a leading voice to help the public sort truth from fiction in an incredibly intensive information warfare environment.  Let’s be clear, Colonel MacGregor is not the bad guy in the room and deserves immense credit for sticking his head out and speaking up against what he sees are lies and dangerous policy blunders.  He is speaking from the same team that seeks to be intellectually critical of the false narratives being produced by Washington.  That said, we will undoubtedly diverge on certain points, which is healthy and not a matter of disrespect.  With that extensive and deserved caveat, I interpret…and could be wrong, Colonel MacGregor as also falling into this mental trap.  Despite being critical of the war and thus, one of the few people that are even making arguments sensible enough to have a discussion, he is undoubtedly speaking from the bias of a mind conditioned by a career in a very incompetent military spent beating up on junior varsity adversaries…and still losing might I add.  Pardon my stereotyping, but I put little stock in the opinions of “retired” senior leaders that repeatedly failed to deliver successful results when they were in charge (this jab is not directed at “Colonel” MacGregor as he was not a general officer).  I do not see Russia as allowing the Ukrainians to throw one battalion after another into its kill boxes because it views this as the primary way to destroy the Ukrainian military and win the war.  This is NOT a strategic plan, but at most, an operational trap for the Ukrainian military.  I believe Russia sees this only as a part of a much bigger “strategic plan” …yes, strategic and plan…to fracture NATO, not the Ukraine.  Back to Clausewitz 101.  The Ukrainian center of gravity is not on the battlefield at all.  It’s the political, military, and economic support the West is providing Ukraine.  You break that linkage, and you decisively end the war in your favor.  Remember, a war in the Ukraine could go on for years costing millions of lives and causing incredible amounts of destruction if fought the way Colonel MacGregor and his class of senior officers think.  Washington would love this, but it would be devastating to both the Ukraine and Russia and for that reason alone, from the Russian perspective, the strategic plan must not become mired in the mud of the Ukrainian plains.  No, the Russian strategic plan must target the critical vulnerabilities that enable the US/NATO support.

If my thesis is true, then what supporting evidence can I show that Russia is targeting NATO instead of Ukraine.  This is where things get serious folks.  This is a game for keeps and time is on the side of Russia.  The longer this gets drawn out using economy of force actions (detailed quite well by Colonel MacGregor) to buy time for asymmetric efforts to metastasize, the more the West is bled dry and the political fervor for a bloody and costly war evaporates.  This leads to a war won by Russia, or better said, a war lost by NATO.  NATO can ill afford this loss, which would obliterate any remaining belief in its legitimacy and credibility.  This would be the end of NATO and the destruction of America’s fear based manipulative influence over Western Europe.  Playing right into the Russian strategy, the US/NATO blob has made this war an unnecessary existential threat to their own existence.  I don’t think Russia could have hoped they’d be this stupid, but just like with the Taliban and Al Qaeda, the West is the retarded policy factory that keeps on producing to its own detriment.  Case and point: economically trying to sanction and isolate Russia at the expense of Western Europe.  By all accounts, this has been a huge failure that has cost the West far more than Russia and led to a much stronger partnership between Russia and China, which creates an insurmountable adversary for the US (more on that in another post).  In fact, historians may look back at this war and credit it as the first war fought where one belligerent employed a strategy of self-destruction in a deluded attempt to somehow defeat their adversary.  If you are wondering, no, this does not work. 

At this point, I’d argue Russia has to do nothing more than hold out and the US itself will implode based on how chaotic the domestic issues in the US have become.  However, why wait when you can fan the flames and end this quicker.  Need more evidence?  I have plenty.  Have you not noticed the absolute torrent of new members being added to BRICS seemingly daily?  Have you not noticed the largest countries in the world dumping the dollar?  Have you not noticed Russia has created a parallel commodities backed financial system to replace the exploitationist fiat system of the West? Have you not noticed as the US policy of control through the creation of chaos and destruction in the Middle East has collapsed, peace has broken out (Note, Washington and Tel Aviv will ensure this peace is temporary)?  Have you not noticed our once close allies like Saudi Arabia not taking our calls?  Have you not noticed our closest allies are still using loopholes to buy Russian oil and gas despite their “unity” against Russia?  Have you not noticed Germany’s economy is in recession?  Have you not noticed China is overtly building a military spy base in Cuba?  Have you not noticed repeated and all too convenient infrastructure failures in the US?  Have you not noticed quiet meetings between Russia and NATO members?  Have you not noticed NATO members beginning to openly diverge on policies towards Russia?  Have you not noticed the West tiring of Ukrainian refugees?  Have you not noticed growing dissent and protests against the war across Europe?  Have you not noticed NATO has depleted its military stockpiles down to bare concrete floors while spending itself into bankruptcy?  I could go on, but my point is sufficiently made.  Russia has been employing a grand geopolitical strategy that focuses on replacing the old post WWII order while the West is hyper fixated on Russia’s operational delaying action being fought in the Ukraine using maximum economy of force. 

The West have become a victim of its own propaganda.  It has done such a good job of creating false narratives and censoring dissent, their own leadership believes its own lies.  As NATO bankrupts itself of both bullets and treasure, it is blind to the fact their entire foundation is fast eroding out from under their feet.  Admittedly, this is as much self-inflicted as imposed by Russia, but it in no way diminishes the point that at this pace, NATO will be forced to massively escalate (World War III) and/or face defeat (collapse of the post WWII system and American hegemony).  Make no mistake, a Ukrainian defeat equates to a NATO defeat and this defeat need not come on the battlefield and is just as likely to come at home via the ballot boxes and protests.  Remember too, Russia is not alone in this fight.  The silent hand of China can be credibly argued to be the true puppet master of this global realignment.  Either way, the implications are clear.  NATO is in its death throws.  The world is once again turning multipolar and there is little Washington can do about it at this point.  After all, the selfish corrupt morons that created this mess are certainly not going to admit they are wrong and are not capable of fixing the mess they themselves created.  This is the paradox in logic.  We are literally looking to the political class that created this mess to get us out of it.  This will not work and must lead a logical person to the inevitable conclusion that the world is about to radically change and most likely become much, much more violent. 

I want to end every letter to my readers with actionable recommendations drawn from the conclusions of my analysis.  In this case, you need to shed the normalcy bias of “it won’t happen here” quickly.  This realignment will at minimum cause serious economic dislocation, the destruction of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, hyperinflation, the collapse of the Western welfare states, and widespread social instability and chaos.  Now, I know that doesn’t sound like a recommendation, but believe me, it is one of the most important ones to grasp.  Shed the normalcy bias and share this letter.  Things really are about to get rougher. Once you made the mental leap that this is coming to an end, we can discuss next steps in further posts to insulate the things you care about most.