Russia Allows NATO to Cross Red Line

The Perception of Weakness Emboldens NATO and Increases the Odds of a Miscalculation and a Nuclear War

In war, deception and operational secrecy are normally considered beneficial.  However, when such deceptions and secrecy lead to confusing restraint with weakness by an adversary, the opportunity for a grave miscalculation arises.  This scenario is playing out in real time in the war between Russia and NATO’s proxy Ukraine.  Both NATO and Ukraine have become emboldened by Russia’s restraint and have come to regard its limited and discriminating use of force as an inability and weakness.  This has prompted NATO to green light even bolder attacks deeper inside of Russia, which has now led to not only straining Russian red lines, but overtly breaking them.  This is a very dangerous game and will lead to unforeseen escalation and consequences. 

Most recently, just last week, Ukraine attacked the Russian naval facility in Sevastopol damaging, if not destroying, a troop transport ship and a submarine using Western supplied cruise missiles.  This attack against a vital Russian installation in Crimea, outside of the zone of the Special Military Operation, using Western supplied weapons, explicitly violated a red line established by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.  Shoigu previously stated that if Ukrainian forces used these types of weapons against the Crimean Peninsula, this would lead to immediate strikes on decision-making centers in Ukraine by Russia.  Further, Shoigu stated: “The use of these missiles outside the zone of the special military operation will mean the United States and Great Britain's full involvement in the conflict.”  Reinforcing Shoigu’s threats, Sergei Lavrov, the Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs, has reiterated Russia’s position that the US is now regarded as an active participant in the war.  Lavrov stated, “No matter what they (the United States) say, they are leading this war; they are putting up weapons, ammunition, intelligence data, data from satellites. They are waging war against us.”  How else are we to take these statements besides literally?  Wake-up because Russia is saying we are now at war.  This will be consummated when Russia strikes US and NATO targets if we don’t change course.

Despite what Russia may claim regarding the limited scope of their Special Military Operation, the
“naval” base was fair game and a legitimate military target.  Special or not, Russia is fighting a war against Ukraine and Ukraine has every right to strike Russian military targets anywhere it can.  However, on this point, it is important to remember the Russians have justified their limited use of force on the fact there seems to be some back-channel gentlemen’s agreement to keep the war within a predetermined box.  Clearly though, whatever agreements or understandings had previously been reached are now null and void.  This escalation to total war is unfortunately the natural progression of war and now that these escalations are happening on an increasing basis, Russia is faced with what amounts to one of two choices.  They can either make good on their threats or do nothing.  As of today, it is safe to say no “immediate” attack against a decision-making center in Ukraine has occurred and Russia has done nothing against NATO despite being an active participant in the conflict.  This does not mean it will not, but it does mean Russia is already appearing weak.  NATO sees this inaction and interprets it as a sign Russia is not capable of projecting power and is beginning to lose.  This further emboldens NATO to push these types of attacks more despite the still standing Russian warnings.  It is at this point where we are today.

I agree that the fact NATO called Russia’s bluff and did exactly what Russia warned them not to do without any Russian response to date looks incredibly weak.  It has even pro-Russian pundits furious and many asking what is the point of talking the talk if you are not going to walk the walk.  It is a bad look all around and would have been better left unsaid for sure if Russia did not plan on responding.  Nonetheless, my sense is that one would be wise to remember the late Kenny Roger’s song “The Coward of the County” when it comes to Russian weakness versus Russian restraint. 

Let me pose some questions to help frame this situation.  What if Russia is indeed using restraint and “choosing” to not respond simply because it assesses the escalation worse than taking the loss and moving past it?  What if as NATO claims, Russia is becoming desperate?  What if Russia is taking too much damage from these strikes and has concluded it cannot win the war by conventional means?  What if Russia does intend to make good on its red line?  What if Russia has decided war with NATO is unavoidable and the US is now an active party that must also be defeated?  I hope what you see is that no matter whether Russia is simply using restraint or actually on the ropes, both scenarios increase the odds Russia will be forced to eventually strike and strike hard.  Recent Russia military movements seem to support this.  I have seen reports now that claim Russian forces have pulled back from the borders with Norway and Finland, pulled aircraft out of Belarus, and deployed Iskander short range ballistic missile systems along the border with Ukraine.  These moves look more like a country creating strategic depth prior to a nuclear strike than a nation ready to collapse.  No matter what the truth is, pressing Russia into a corner only increases the odds Russia hits a break point and strikes back in a way that shocks the world.  Is this really what we want?  Is this what is really best for the world?

Do not for a second trust our intelligence community to correctly answer these questions.  Our intelligence community is famous for its numerous failures and has been the ones secretly pushing this war for a decade.  The CIA in particular is the group that lied about WMD in Iraq, failed to foresee the collapse of the Soviet Union, missed the Taliban overrunning Kabul, paid off scientists to change their COVID lab leak theories, are implicated in the assassination of a US President, and enabled the 9/11 hijackers.  This is a community NEVER to be trusted.  They have no interest in being an honest broker even if they had the right answers.  No one outside of the Russian leadership truly knows where Russia’s breaking point is and if they tell you they do, they are a liar.  As for the rest of the world, we are all speculating.  Some like Senator Lindsey Graham thinks it is perfectly fine to risk nuclear war with Russia because “he” thinks they will back down.  Well, as someone that has worked with Graham, I can tell you he is an idiot and a paid apparatchik.  If we followed his guidance for policy, we would all die in a nuclear holocaust for sure.  He does not care though because he believes he will be whisked away to a secret bunker to ride out the storm.  He is dead wrong. 

In all honesty, there is far more about this that I do not know than I know.  I am comfortable admitting that to you unlike most of the self-aggrandizing pundits, analysts, and experts.  What I do know is the war is reaching another inflection point.  The whole argument Russia is out of troops and is breaking is false.  Russia has raised a very large army yet has only deployed roughly half of those troops to the front line.  This has cost Russia ground in key battles so one must assume there is a good reason Russia is only allocating the absolute minimum number of troops to the front lines to hold back the Ukrainian offensive.  The only explanations I can come to for this are that Russia is going to commit these troops soon for a major offensive against Ukraine, Russia is saving these forces in reserve expecting a far bigger war with NATO to break out, or all of the above.  I am becoming convinced these troops are indeed being held in reserve in expectation of a bigger war initiated by NATO and that makes us crossing Russia’s red lines even more dangerous.  I have heard arguments that Russia is simply trying to wait out NATO, but this theory does not make sense.  The quickest way to break NATO’s resolve and end the war is to win it.  Sitting in a trench and letting wave after wave of Ukrainian attacks smash into your lines only makes sense to the point you do not start losing the strategic initiative and key terrain, which is happening.  Thus, one must look for other explanations.  That said, it makes sense to not concentrate your forces in this type of battle and that holding them safely in the rear until the conditions to attack are achieved is viable.  However, that again means those troops are going to be used in the offense and are not just sitting forever waiting for NATO to run out of ammo or other ridiculous theories I have heard.  You do not win a war sitting in a trench.  You must take the fight to the enemy.

So, this brings us back to the question of why Russia has allowed NATO to cross its red line in Crimea.  My belief is that Russia decided to stay focused on the fight at hand and deny NATO the opportunity to escalate and expand the war.  Despite the embarrassment and damage, it is still better for Russia to destroy NATO in Ukraine than to have to fight and destroy NATO all across the Northern Hemisphere.  Russia will though, at its time of choosing, respond and hit critical decision-making centers like it promised despite it not being immediate.  Ukraine and NATO are not escaping that response.  However, Russia knows that once the fight leaves Ukraine, it is a nuclear war so is forced to eat its words for now.  Disturbingly, I do not think our leadership totally gets this point.  I have said it over and over.  There is no “defeating” Russia.  Anything that nears an actual defeat of Russia triggers a full nuclear response and yes, Russia will launch.  Again and again, the experts are too hyper focused on the operational picture in Ukraine.  They repeatedly fail to think in terms of the strategic.  Russia must consider all of its borders, not just the ones with Ukraine.  Russia would love to be able to throw everything it has at Ukraine, but this would leave a massive area wide open should a hot war with NATO be initiated.  Russia has to contend with this scenario and has as a result, intentionally deployed its troops to a defensive posture that suggests Russia expects a war with NATO and expects it to go nuclear.  I say this again because Russia has pulled back its troops some distance from all borders with NATO.  This allows Russia to use all types of weapons without endangering its own forces while getting them out of the immediate range of most NATO weapons.  There really is not much other explanation for what we are seeing.

Going forward into fall, barring a NATO false flag that immediately escalates the war, expect Ukraine’s offensive to be pushed regardless of the rain and mud.  I am telling you; Ukraine will not let up as long as they have soldiers to throw into the meat grinder despite the pundits talking of the “end” to the offensive as the rains begin.  True, I consider the Ukraine offensive a colossal failure and disastrous waste of life, but it does not mean Russia can ignore it.  It is a very dangerous and persistent attack that must be put down.  Russia has recently inflicted so much damage on Ukrainian forces that Ukraine’s best units that were held in reserve to exploit any breach in the Russian lines had to be committed and are now being pulled from the line as combat ineffective.  This is telling and suggests Ukraine is nearing the point of exhaustion and will soon need to reconstitute its army.  Despite heavy Russian losses, Russia has dealt it back as hard as the Ukrainians dished it out and the numbers now are stacking up against Ukraine.  Further, Russia has continued to improve its weapons and tactics and are just now seeing new equipment making its way to the battlefield.  I spoke previously of game changing weapons Russia is going to start unveiling this fall.  Some of the systems you can expect are modified active protective systems on armor vehicles that destroy drones, dedicated counter drone systems, industrial production and deployment of drones of all types in combat against Ukraine, upgraded air defense systems, longer range artillery and rocket systems capable of interdicting or challenging the range and accuracy of Western HIMARS systems, better integrated advanced counter battery fire systems, and a broader use of guided bombs.  These advances will outpace anything NATO can build and field giving Russia a growing advantage as Ukraine is ground down to nothing.  NATO knows this and Russia knows this making it all the more likely NATO will use whatever means it can to justify escalation and its entrance into the war to salvage the situation.  Folks, I cannot say this enough times.  When this happens, Russia is not going to fight the war conventionally.  Further, if Russia knows this is about to happen, we will not get any warning.  Our warning will be fireballs erupting over strategic targets as Russian missiles tipped with thermonuclear warheads vaporize whatever forces we planned to deploy.  If we are lucky, this will only be in Ukraine allowing leaders with some sanity left to stop the war.  If not, I hope you took my advice and started building out a residency in some country in Central or South America.

Till next time,

D.t.Y.