Russia’s Final Warning to the West

Can WW3 Be Averted as Ukraine and NATO Escalate

During my last Substack update, I warned that a tipping point in the Russia-Ukraine War had been crossed and that Ukraine was now falling back fast, and its military was collapsing.  This reality left only one of two primary courses of action; Either Ukraine surrenders, or NATO enters the war and dramatically escalates.  This week, we got our answer as Ukraine began to openly use Western supplied weapons to strike inside of Russia moving the world one notch closer to a nuclear Armageddon.  This wasn’t the first time NATO supplied weapons were used to strike Russia, but it was the first time they were used after Russia revised its nuclear use doctrine and warned any further attacks would be a red line.  As promised, we did not have to wait long to receive Russia’s response.  Undersea communication cables were severed as soon as it was announced the White House had authorized long range strikes inside of Russia.  This was no doubt an asymmetric response and warning designed to not escalate.  However, the warning was not heeded and Ukraine launched ATACMs and Storm Shadow strikes into Russia proper forcing escalation.  In response, Russia went to what appeared to be a full nuclear footing and conducted an operational test of a never before used missile against an aerospace missile production facility in Ukraine.  The launch of this road mobile missile, which depending on configuration approaches ICBM ranges and can carry a thermonuclear weapons payload, established a new precedent in warfare.  To date, no such weapon has ever been used in combat and from the early videos appearing, it was impressively terrifying.  Unfortunately, this demonstration of Russian strike capabilities did not seem to have the sobering effect intended on the West.  Rather than stepping back and appreciating just how close we were to an entire city in Ukraine being vaporized and there being absolutely nothing we could do to stop it, we doubled down and have effectively dismissed this as more Russian desperation, bluffing, and hollow threats.  Folks, nothing could be further from the truth.  We have now escalated the war to the point that NATO and the West are in a direct state of war with Russia and everything that entails.  With the world now on the brink of true WW3, what comes next?

As events unfold, I update assessments I have previously produced.  I always recommend my readers review and key word search prior Substack articles to make sure you have both the background and the updates.  This saves you time not having to reread covered analysis and saves me time writing updates.  With that said, I have laid out what amounts to thresholds for the conflict where off-ramps could be taken or escalation to the next level would occur.  The attacks by Ukraine using western supplied missiles and Russia’s response now puts us firmly in a World War 3 scenario where Russia and the US are not just in a de facto state of war, but active parties to it.  This is a game changer.  Short of NATO soldiers overtly engaged in the war and the war spilling beyond the borders of Ukraine, we have crossed nearly every lesser threshold.  Dangerously, Russia has signaled it will not tolerate continued attacks, but there appears to be no interest whatsoever by Ukraine and NATO to cease attacking targets in Russia.  In fact, I won’t be surprised at all if as soon as today, another, “in your face,” attack is launched by Kiev into Russia.  Remember, Kiev has been desperate to escalate this war to pull in NATO.  Otherwise, the war is already over for Ukraine.  With the election of Donald Trump, NATO and its Globalist masters know the clock is ticking.  They fear the plug will be pulled on the war and a peace deal will be negotiated between Moscow and Washington.  To prevent this, NATO and the outgoing regime in Washington are trying to escalate the war, prior to Trump taking office, in a way that makes it impossible for Trump to extricate the US from the war.  As you are well aware, this is a very dangerous gamble.  One misstep could lead not just to escalation, but annihilation and no one outside of Moscow’s inner circle knows exactly where that line is.  Nonetheless, here we stand.  Ukraine will launch additional strikes into Russia.  The only question now is how Russia will respond.

As these further provocations are conducted by NATO and Ukraine, Russia will be faced with very serious policy decisions.  Starting with the best-case scenario, Putin could opt to take the hits, stay focused on hammering Ukraine, and hope he doesn’t lose popular support while he waits to hopefully get a peace deal with Trump once he takes office.  This is more or less your status quo policy option, but risks further eroding Russia deterrence and legitimacy.  Further, Putin has made it clear these attacks would not be tolerated so he would come off looking weak vice restrained.  In addition, there is no guarantee Trump will not take a harder line and escalate once he realizes Russia won’t surrender and that he has no real negotiating leverage beyond escalation.  Putin’s second option would be to conduct strikes against a broader range of targets inside Ukraine.  This may include diplomatic facilities or other previously forbidden targets.  He could also opt to provide advanced weapons to America’s adversaries as an asymmetric response.  This would be a safe option and unlikely to escalate the war beyond the current levels assuming attacks inside Russia could be endured.  From here, things radically worsen.  Putin’s third option is to expand the war beyond Ukraine’s borders.  Russia has been very clear anyone supplying these weapons is legally a party to the conflict and risks being treated as such.  If Russia deems that they cannot continue to incur more damage, must re-establish credible deterrence, and/or the conflict is unavoidable, then they may indeed strike decision making centers and military targets outside of Ukraine.  This would be the last threshold short of total all-out war.  Russia has given the West plenty of warning and would be within its right to strike outside of Ukraine, but so far, Russia has been very disciplined about keeping the fighting within Ukraine.  Despite the additional pain, Russia still assesses that broadening the war would only worsen their situation.  However, if this calculus has changed and Russia has decided it is time to give the West a dose of its own medicine, things will escalate incredibly fast.  Remember, we do not know what Russia knows.  Maybe its military is reaching the breaking point.  Maybe they are running out of soldiers, bombs, and money.  Maybe they feel that NATO is exhausted and now is their time to act.  I don’t know and anyone that tells you they do is a liar.  We are in best guess territory meaning a much higher potential for miscalculation.  Finally, you have the worst-case scenario.  For any number of reasons to include reaching the point of exhaustion on one hand or being emboldened to act now and finish the war on the other, Russia could choose either a limited or broad nuclear strike.  Russia knows its Iskander short range ballistic missiles, its hypersonic cruise missiles, and as of today, it’s long-range strategic missiles all can overcome NATO’s air defenses and effectively strike with impunity.  Should Russia fear defeat or need to decisively end the attacks on Russia, it may choose to launch nuclear weapons.  This could be limited to Ukraine or a full Doomsday scenario.  Fortunately, I don’t think we are there yet but wouldn’t continue to test Russia either.  Most likely, based on previous precedent, Putin will go with options 1 and 2.  If he thinks he can end this war on his terms and without nuclear annihilation, he will.  That said, he can still make it very painful for us and asymmetrically retaliate without raising the stakes even higher in Ukraine.  Unfortunately, it isn’t Putin driving this escalation.  It is NATO and Kiev and they can do the same basic analysis I just summarized for you.  They too know that Putin will most likely try to ride this out, so their mission is to make things so incredibly painful for Russia, it cannot ignore the attacks and must escalate into option 3 or even 4.  Remember, the Globalists have no problem with kicking over the game board, burning it, and shooting everyone in the room if they don’t get their way.  After all, they are the Cult of Death and want to reduce the world’s population by over 90%.  With these lunatics knowing this game is for keeps, they are very likely to conduct every possible provocation imaginable to achieve a hot war status prior to Trump taking office.  This means there is a high probability the war will spill over into Europe and the US prior to January 20, 2025.

Is there hope? Yes, for sure.  Putin has proven to be a very rational and unemotional decision maker.  If Trump is pressured to come out publicly and address the escalation and present a viable peace deal prior to his inauguration, he may be able to buy time and prevent additional escalation.  Ideally, Trump is smart enough to know the game is over in Ukraine and Russia won.  I’d be happy to find out he told supporters what they wanted to hear to get elected, but once he is President, he tells Zelensky to surrender and makes a viable peace with Russia on Russia’s terms.  That would be great, but I’d say highly unlikely.  Trump seems to be operating under a high degree of ignorance relative to the conditions on the ground in Ukraine.  Russia is winning and NATO is already flowing the maximum amount of arms it can produce and aid its populations will tolerate to Ukraine.  In fact, despite Trump’s threat to escalate to de-escalate, there is very little more he could do besides direct military intervention.  Also, even if he could change the current dynamic, it would enrage and alienate Trump’s base, which voted for him in part to make peace.  Walking that back and telling his supporters that not only do we need to give more money to Ukraine, but potentially get involved with troops on the ground is a non-starter.  Trump seems to think he can threaten Russia into accept what amounts to be a defeat on America’s terms but holds no cards.  Only through incentivizes like land concessions, lifting of sanctions, and re-integration into the West is there any chance of ending the war prior to it being ended by Russia on Russia’s terms.  At no point was surrender an option for Russia.  Trump fails to see this through the Russian lens.  For Russia, this is not optional and is an existential war unlike for the West.  Russia must fight it to its conclusion and Trump right now does not appear to appreciate this in the least.  So, is Trump the panacea to the war?  I hope, but it is unlikely under Trump’s current stated plan to achieve peace.  In fact, under what appears to be Trump’s negotiating assumptions, not only will it not end the war, but it will dramatically escalate it.  Either way, we are no more than two months from knowing and I do believe Trump’s perspective will evolve as he is read in on the actual ground truth in Ukraine and Russia.

So, there you have it.  The war has escalated to the next level, Trump offers some hope of a peace deal, and the Establishment will do everything in its power to scuttle any attempts at peace.  Hope for the best but prepare for the worst.  If this spills over outside of Ukraine’s borders, you need to be looking for a ticket to South America because that’s when we hit the point of rapid uncontrolled escalation on our way to a nuclear exchange.  In the interim, expect more strikes inside Russia, a possible attack on Transnistria, false flags, and lots of surprises.  I can’t stress it enough, this is an incredibly dangerous moment in time and no one knows exactly where this is going.  Be prepared for anything.

Please monitor my X account for real time updates and commentary.  As events evolve, I will continue to post updates.

Stay safe,

D.t.Y.