Russia’s New Apex Predators on the Battlefield:

Catastrophic Effect of New Russian Drones Leading To Collapse of Ukrainian Front

Over the summer, I posted numerous letters discussing the dramatic effect drones would have on warfare.  Further, I discussed how Russian advances in autonomous warfare systems would materialize beginning this fall to devastating effect on Ukrainian forces if they failed to match Russian advances.  Well, it’s the fall and we are getting our first good look at what drone warfare 2.0 looks like and the results have not disappointed.  In fact, the asymmetric advantage provided to a military that has heavily adopted autonomous systems is stunning.  This evening’s letter looks at these advances and discusses how they have become a remarkable game changer in Russia’s advantage and signal the beginning of the collapse of Ukraine’s military.

First, I want to highlight the importance of industrial capacity.  Russia has finally realized the value and importance of autonomous systems and is now producing a full range of autonomous weapons on an industrial scale.  This mass is critical.  Prior to industrial scale production, drones were a potent weapon, but simply not in large enough numbers to supplant traditional heavy weapons like artillery.  With winter now approaching, this appears to have all changed.  As drones are produced in massive quantities, they are no longer just a threat, but the primary killer on the battlefield.  The incredibly high kill ratio with drones in many cases exceeds 1:1 due to their ability to kill and wound multiple people in one strike while also knocking out high value equipment with precision.  Artillery simply does not have this kind of precision enabling it to achieve such high kill ratios per round fired.  Despite artillery’s all-weather performance, it often requires tens if not hundreds of shells to be fired to eliminate what just a couple drones can do.  Either way, the ultimate decider is the fact drones hunt artillery and not the reverse.  Drones are an artillery killer and that makes them the apex predator now on the battlefield.

To put this in perspective, a single Russian drone operator was recently credited with killing over 200 Ukrainians during just a two-week period.  This is terrifyingly effective.  Ponder that for a second more because I want you to then think of what just a company of 100 well equipped drone operators could do.  By my math, they could kill 10,000 soldiers a week.  Extending this over a single month and the unit could feasibly kill 40,000 soldiers.  Now grow that company to a full battalion and with 4 companies of operators.  Now you are suddenly talking about killing up to 160,000 soldiers in a single month not even talking about the equipment.  These losses are absolutely unsustainable by any modern military and certainly not sustainable for Ukraine.  Short of using nuclear weapons, there simply is no other weapon on the battlefield that can achieve such success.  Further, when you consider the minimal amount of training required, the low cost per weapon system, and the relative impunity from which the drone operators control their weapons, this is a true revolution in warfare.  It honestly horrifies me because it won’t be long before all militaries catch up and this will force another evolution in how drones are employed, but for now, the capacity Russia has developed for drone production and employment is staggering.  This force, exactly as I forecasted over the summer, is now breaking the Ukrainian lines.  There is simply nowhere to hide, which brings me to my next point.

Earlier in the war, most Russian drones were not equipped with advanced autonomous navigation, targeting, or thermal systems to enable all weather day and night attack.  Now they are.  Every day it seems new drone footage is posted demonstrating the net centric abilities of even tactical drones to identify targets and pass them off to attack drones for elimination.  This has allowed drones to hunt in what appears to be a semi-autonomous mode.  Further, it appears they can identify and engage targets without necessarily requiring a human in the loop.  The gap in this capability was during bad weather and at night.  Tactical drones were “too cheap” to equip with advanced systems like thermal optics to enable attack at night or in bad weather.  However, the Russians have cracked the code on that as well and it appears that entire classes of drones are now prowling the skies at night now affording the Ukrainian military absolutely no respite from the danger. 

Deep strike capabilities of the latest drones have also removed any ability to hide in the rear.  The latest generation of Russian drones demonstrate longer loiter times, faster top speeds, bigger warheads, and much greater range.  Almost daily targets that are often hundreds of miles from the front line are struck with surgical precision.  Further, these drones are also able to be used to overwhelm far more complex and expensive air defense systems by simply forcing them to use up all of their missiles.  The dilemma drones create is that they aren’t delivering huge explosive payloads, but they are big enough that they cannot be ignored so, must be engaged.  If they aren’t, the drones’ precision will enable them to destroy high value targets.  However, because of their ability to be cheaply produced and deployed in large numbers, they are expendable and can quickly force a battery to fire every missile it has, leaving the area completely undefended if there is any follow-on strike by larger missiles.  Both Russia and Ukraine have used this tactic to good effect.

Naturally, as drones have become more potent, both sides have developed better defenses.  On the low-tech end, cages and standoff devices welded to armor vehicles provide in some cases enough stand-off range to mitigate the blast effects of the warhead.  Russia has gone one step further though and modified its warheads so that they can produce an explosively formed projectile capable of still reaching and penetrating armor with effect even from stand-off distances.  Both sides have also improved their ability to target drones with low altitude air defense systems that often rely on radar guided rapid fire guns.  However, the real game changer for drone defense has been on the electronic warfare (EW) front.  There is good video evidence of both sides deploying potent EW systems that effectively jam drones.  These work through a number of mechanisms, but the most apparent are systems that disrupt drone communication with the controller.  This forces the drone to lose control and crash or to have to avoid the area.  Both sides have employed counter measures to EW such as hardening communications on drones and simply flying higher.  Of these, the latter significantly degrades the effectiveness of attack drones by either preventing them from attacking in the case of suicide drones or having to drop ordnance from such a height that the hit probability was significantly reduced with mini-bomber drones.  My guess is that the bomber drones will improve their targeting or bombs so that they have better aim and guidance while the hardening of electronic systems will continue to become more robust.  Ultimately, it is a cat and mouse game that will not see an end so long as drones are being used.

Unmanned aerial vehicles are not the only area of development.  We are also seeing a range of both ground and sea based autonomous systems being rolled out.  Ukraine, with US and British support, has since last year, used surface drones at sea to handicap and even destroy ships in the Russian Black Sea Fleet.  As one would expect, the Russians now have their own fleet of surface drones that pack a huge explosive payload.  I have not seen evidence of these employed in combat yet, but my guess is we will see these used against ports like Odessa in the very near future.  As for ground-based systems, Russia has what amounts to an autonomous tank that has terrifying firepower.  I’ve seen at least a few videos of this Terminator system in action, and it is wicked.  Its Achilles heel, like all ground vehicles, is air attack.  It is particularly vulnerable to unmanned aerial systems just like its manned armor counterparts.  However, so long as air cover is maintained, this ground-based system is devastating.  In addition, these systems allow Russians to approach and clear hardened areas from the safety of trenches and bunkers whereas before, they had to make a dash on foot or in armor through what amounted to an open kill zone and the results were usually high casualties.  There is also some evidence autonomous systems are being retrofitted into old armor vehicles that are then used to clear mine fields and/or act like a giant guided bombs by being loaded with explosives and driven to a hardened area of the enemy’s defensive line where they are detonated.

The results on the battlefield have been measurable and I believe are playing a major role in cracking Ukrainian defensive lines that have to date, held for years.  If for no other reason, the losses inflicted on Ukraine by drone strikes are eliminating their best units and equipment.  Ukraine cannot replace these losses.  At this point, it is simply a matter of time and attrition.  Russia can sit back in trenches and hunt anyone that dares poke their head out while simultaneously blasting them into oblivion with guided bombs and mainstay artillery and rocket systems.  This combined arms package is nearly impossible to endure for any length of time leading to more and more Ukrainian units either surrendering, pulling back, or refusing to fight.  The casualties they suffer trying to go on the attack amount to pure suicide.  I believe historians will look back at this moment much like we look back on cavalry charges when machine guns were first employed.  The guns cut down the attacking cavalry like lawn mowers, but they just kept charging to their deaths because that is all they knew and were trained to do.  In the here and now, just like during World War One, both sides attack from their trenches across no man’s land because that’s all their officers know how to do despite the futility and losses.  Only when their high commands fully embrace the fact that to maneuver on the modern battlefield, it requires a combined arms umbrella made up of drones over your enemy’s position will they break the stalemate.  Until then, it is just a game of who is the last man standing and Russia wins that by sheer numbers.

There is no doubt this is just the beginning.  The technological innovation will continue, and unmanned systems will employ greater and greater levels of autonomy to recon, surveil, hunt, and kill enemy targets.  Advancements in mass production methods, improvements to navigation, targeting, and communication systems, and better coding for software to support autonomous operation are just a few areas engineers are working to enhance.  EW systems and hardening of systems against EW attack will also continue.  Meanwhile, lethality, range, and speed will all continue to improve on each successive generation.  More and more ground and sea-based systems will also be rolled out serving numerous roles from mine clearing and casualty evacuation to direct attack.  The next milestone to look for will be when drone swarms begin to be used for coordinated attacks against entire areas of enemy lines.  This will be the technology the cracks defensive lines like dropping eggs on a tile floor.  Already, soldiers have no where to run or hide aside from deep inside tunnels and bunkers. However, they can pop out and fight and then run back in.  With the swarm, the entire trench line will be placed under persistent surveillance and the moment a target appears, a killer drone at the ready will be dispatched to engage and destroy that target.  These persistent swarms will completely suppress the enemy defense and allow Russia to more or less approach and capture the lines unopposed.  I say Russia because I believe they are closer to realizing this tech breakthrough, but the same would apply to Ukraine if they can beat Russia to it.  Make no mistake, the world is in an arms race for autonomous systems.  Where this goes is the stuff of apocalyptic nightmares, but unfortunately, I do not believe this is stoppable now.  The world has opened Pandora’s Box and soon we will be seeing the worst of science fiction Terminator robots dominating the battlefield.

Till next time,

D.t.Y.