The Next 30 Days in Ukraine may Determine the Fate of the World
The offensive’s tipping point may be much sooner than estimated.
The decision about what to title today’s letter took me aback. A “sky is falling” title like this cannot be used lightly. Because of this, I had to give it long and sincere contemplation. I had to review my logic and question if this is truly that serious or if I am overreacting. That said, after attempting to shed any normalcy bias and reviewing the evidence, I came full circle back to where I started. The events in the Ukraine are rapidly approaching a culminating point that could alter that fate of the world. We do not have time to waste so let’s get right to the point.
The spring summer offensive is now underway. Ukraine has committed its reserves and best weapons to the fight. This is a do or die moment for the Ukraine and by extension, NATO. Despite the propagandists already trying to dampen expectations and adjust what success looks like, this must result in an outright defeat of Russia, or it is game over for the Ukraine respective of any organized resistance. NATO has emptied its stockpiles and Ukraine has committed its remaining manpower readying for this offensive. If this fails, neither NATO nor Ukraine is going to have anything left for any effective organized resistance despite the CIA’s aspirations for years of war and turning Ukraine into an Afghan style insurgency. Sure, the Ukraine may commit their forces piecemeal to stall, but this only means Russia can then easily destroy the small and ineffective combat units in manageable bites. This also would not play well in the press. That means Ukraine must commit large units to the battle to have any chance of overwhelming and breeching Russian defensive lines. Further, if there is any chance to hold those gains, the Ukrainian military must be ready and able to rush large numbers of forces into a breach to solidify the gains. This creates a situation for a culminating point in a matter of weeks, not months, depending on how the battle proceeds.
The results of the offensive will not be something either side can hide and will start to become clear soon. As that truth becomes self-evident, no matter how it goes, I am gravely concerned it will force one side or the other to begin a massive escalation in the conflict that will spiral out of control. If the offensive succeeds, Russia will be forced to massively escalate. If the offensive fails, this will force NATO to make a profoundly serious and fateful decision for the world. This would mean NATO must decide on whether to massively escalate by entering the conflict to save the failing war effort or to divorce itself of the fight Kabul style and leave the Ukrainians to their own devices. The latter cut-and-run option has a long past precedent in US wars, but in this case, it is different. NATO has made the conflict one of an existential nature. By effectively admitting the failure and defeat of Ukraine, NATO is admitting defeat. Knowing the hubris and egos in Washington, London, and Brussels, I am hard pressed to think these lunatics will settle for this endstate. Knowing this, the implications at this inflection point are terrifying and why I titled this letter in such an apocalyptic framing.
To date, things are not going well for the Ukrainians. In the run up to D-Day, Russia destroyed numerous weapons depots, ammo dumps, command and control nodes, and smartly forced Ukrainian air defense units to expend nearly all their missiles leaving the low density and hard to replace radar systems vulnerable to destruction…and destroy them is what the Russians did. This has left the Armed Forces of Ukraine with what I believe is a very depleted start point in critical weapons and ammunition and a much weaker if not absent air defense umbrella along the line of contact. In addition, Russia enjoys a numerical advantage across the entire front in both soldiers and artillery. I cannot understate the effects of this enough. You cannot attack a dug in force with a large superiority in artillery and no aircover across open planes and think this end in anything, but wholesale slaughter. This feels like Pickett’s Charge on a grand scale. I do not believe any numbers given by the belligerents on face value, but I have found the Russian reports to be closer to reality than Ukrainian reports. That said, even western sources are admitting the Ukraine has suffered staggering losses across the line of contact and have made only token gains and no appreciable breakthrough of any Russian line. Further, I have seen estimates stating that as much as 30% of the NATO provided weapons have already been destroyed. Even if just half that estimate is closer to reality, these are both catastrophic and unsustainable losses. If true and not mitigated, and at this point I do not see any reason to not believe the reports at least in part, the Ukraine is experiencing a burn rate of men and materials that is not sustainable beyond roughly a month. As previously noted, coming off the accelerator will not improve the odds of survival for Ukrainian soldiers. It will only prolong the inevitable. Because of this, I do not see any realistic option for Ukraine aside from keeping pressure on the pedal or slamming it to the floor. Mashing the gas pedal will only accelerate that burn rate of people and weapons precipitating a tipping point even faster for better or worse.
The tipping point is what has me honestly worried. The Ukrainians are motivated, well-armed, and hitting hard. The Russians are in strong positions with excellent artillery and the preponderance of firepower and men. I believe both sides are equally committed to the fight. All else being equal, the outcome favors Russia. Perhaps, it is better to simply say there are two primary outcomes rather than prognosticate. Fair enough? Ukraine wins or dies. This alone though is not sufficient to capture the gravity of the situation. I do not believe Russia will allow its lines to collapse and be pushed back into Russia and/or lose Crimea. That outcome would precipitate a red line being crossed that could trigger massive escalation up to and including a nuclear response. On the flipside, should the Ukraine suffer a staggering defeat, it is not Ukraine that NATO is concerned with. NATO is concerned with NATO. If Ukraine fails, NATO fails. That was the folly (or diabolical intent depending on how you view it) of the policy decisions to existentially link the conflict in the Ukraine to the viability of NATO. Nonetheless, that is the case and would be extremely hard to walk back now. Faced with a humiliating defeat that would completely undermine the credibility of NATO, the warmongers would have little choice…and I fear they would not be too upset…but to use this emergency as the justification to escalate and enter the conflict. This would likely look like imposing a no-fly zone and the deployment of at least some troops. The ball would then be in Russia’s court. Either Russia antes up or folds. I do not see Russia as any more able or willing to fold at this point than NATO, so we have reached the crisis point.
Now, do you see the imminent danger the world faces? The circular firing squad created by NATO offers no off-ramp. The US sucked the world into an escalation cycle without a viable exit. No matter what happens, one side or the other will be forced to escalate. Beyond praying that cooler heads prevail, and NATO members get cold feet and suddenly decide Ukraine is not worth WWIII or Russia just quits, the world could be heading for a massive war in as little as a few weeks. Best case scenario, the Ukrainians piecemeal their forces into the fray while hoping to replenish their destroyed stockpiles of weapons that will not arrive, and the reality forces them to the negotiating table. However unlikely, this is about the only viable path to avoid massive escalation. Either way, time is on Russia’s side. I do not know who will get to the point of failure first, Russia, NATO, or Ukraine, but the decision point to escalate is the same.
Being this is a pretty bad forecast; I owe you some actionable recommendations. Even if you insanely lust for WWIII, you should be asking what can be done to prevent and/or survive this? The truth is, I am not sure it can be prevented so a focus on weathering the storm may be more appropriate. Nonetheless, especially if you can be recalled to service or have kids of age that can be drafted, you need to be writing every elected representative you have and telling them to end this madness. If there is an activist in you, now may be a good time to start organizing demonstrations irrespective of your political leanings. We know our politicians are bought and sold so do not hold your breath on any substantive changes, but it is still worth it because a few power brokers have skin in the game and stand to lose a lot if WWIII does break loose. To make it more effective, rather than targeting the bought political pawns, target the people buying them. Hit them where it counts financially. Look for my letter on how to effectively boycott coming soon (and no, we are not doing it properly or effectively).
At the personal level, there are numerous steps you should take to start to insulate your family that come down to really only two options. The first and best is to get light and mobile. You should rapidly move to liquidate anything you do not absolutely need domestically and move to a safer overseas location (yep, I have you covered there for guidance in upcoming posts). I know this is a big ask that most people will dismiss out of hand as too much of a hassle or not feasible. However, as someone that has actually done it, I can tell you it is not as hard as you think. The biggest impediment is psychological. People are creatures of habit, and a move of any type is very stressful. However, the downside risks of rolling the dice hoping that you can sit safely in the US throughout what is looking increasingly likely to be WWIII will prove significantly more costly. At minimum, having the ability to travel gives you options others simply will not have and the sooner you start taking even little steps the better off you will be. In the interim, if you do not have a passport, you need to immediately apply for one. You can start the application process online. You should also begin to look at how to generate an income overseas, which could be remote work, starting a business, living off savings, or even hiring on to a local firm.
Option two is to gamble and try to weather the storm at home. You should still work towards getting as light and as mobile as possible even if that means you still maintain a homestead. I have repeatedly seen how accumulating too many material things biases your thinking, increases downside risks, and limits your adaptability during a very chaotic and fluid situation. Either way, if you live on or near any major military target such as a military base, industrial center, or major city, you need a legitimately viable evacuation plan that can be executed on a moment’s notice with little to no follow-on communication (see later letters for guidance). You should also plan for nuclear and/or radiological disasters, which includes air filtration, protective masks, environmental sealant materials (plastic and duct tape), and potassium iodide. Feel free to contact me for references to suppliers. As remote as the chances of a full nuclear exchange may seem to many, the world is very different today than it was during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Leaders really believe a war with Russia can be won, if for nothing else, because they incorrectly believe they will somehow be spared and insulated from the consequences.
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