War in Ukraine Entering Terminal Phase as Southern Front in Donetsk Collapses

NATO Prepares Drastic Measures to Salvage Ukraine

Reports tonight are spotty, but multiple sources including reliable bloggers and mappers such as @MilitarySummary are covering what appears to be a complete collapse of the Ukrainian military developing along the Southern Donetsk Front.  Mappers are reporting very rapid Russian advances threatening to completely surround thousands of Ukrainian forces in as little as 24 hours.  In particular, a surprise northerly penetration of Russian forces is threatening to cut off the rear of the main body of Ukrainian forces engaged along the Donetsk front.  This advance does not appear to be meeting any resistance and pressing forward rapidly closing the noose.  If Russia completes the encirclement, this will likely prove to be the biggest disaster yet of the war for Ukraine leading to a further complete collapse of the Donetsk region.  As such, the war is about to enter its terminal phase and both Ukraine and NATO are facing critical decision points with strategic implications.  To be blunt, the collapse of Ukraine’s military is rapidly accelerating and the only thing that has any chance of abating this total defeat will be direct entry of NATO into the conflict.  That is called World War Three.

When I say things are going bad, I mean really bad.  Ukraine is facing compounding operational reversals and defeats.  In the northern theater, the Kursk Offensive failed.  Exactly as discussed, this was a huge embarrassment for Russia, but ultimately failed to achieve anything decisive and has now turned into a total disaster.  Russia did not take the bait and pull troops from other sectors of the front.  Instead, Russia swallowed the wholly insufficient Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region while making significant gains along much more critical sectors of the front.  In an odd twist, this offensive by Ukraine is turning out to look an awful lot like what amounted to the last major Nazi offensive along the Western Front during WWII, which we know as the Battle of the Bulge.  Like the Germans, the Ukrainians poured their best troops and equipment into the offensive, which at first rapidly blew through defensive lines creating a large salient.  However, surrounded and on hostile terrain with no fortified areas to fight from, the offensive quickly lost its combat punch, ran out of gas, and was annihilated.  In the end, the Battle of the Bulge proved to be more of a last-ditch desperation move that once defeated, left Germany’s western flank wide open.  Ukraine, in their own right, is also experiencing a similar fate.  Worse, just like with Germany, the Russians continued to drive forward across the entire rest of the front taking advantage of the diluted defenses now stripped of critical equipment and manpower.  This has led to critical strategic terrain being rapidly captured by Russia along the Donetsk front in particular.  In fact, just as I have repeatedly highlighted in prior articles, Ukraine is exhibiting all of the classic signs of a conventional military in collapse.  Specifically, as the collapse begins, you witness compounding and accelerating defeats exactly as we see across the entire front.  Not only are the number of defeats growing for Ukraine, but they are getting bigger and happening faster and faster.  I honestly can’t even keep track of the number of towns, cities, and key terrain Russia is now taking daily and their advance is only accelerating.  This, if not countered, will lead to the total collapse and defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU).

With defeat now palpable, the war is entering its terminal phase.  Despite desperation attacks and wonder weapons, there is honestly no real hope of this momentum shifting back into Ukraine’s favor.  The front line has now passed the most heavily fortified areas, and the AFU is rapidly falling back to less and less favorable positions to defend from.  This means the AFU has entered a death spiral and both Kiev and NATO know this.  Of course, as readers of my Substack, you knew this inevitable culminating point was reached long ago.  Historians can debate when the war became utterly futile for Ukraine, but I’m sure many will point to the Battles for Bakhmut and Avdeevka.  Avdeevka was Ukraine’s Stalingrad moment as far as I am concerned.  Despite the war already being unwinnable for Germany by the time Stalingrad was fought over, the fall signified the beginning of the long retreat back to Berlin.  In a similar manner, by time the Battle for Avdeevka began, the war was already unwinnable for Ukraine, but it clearly marked the beginning of what has been a steady and now accelerating retreat back to Kiev. 

So, is this the end?  Where does the war go from here? Should you care?  Well, the best-case scenario is that reality sets in and cooler heads step forward to demand a cessation of the conflict along Russian terms.  Unfortunately, there is still fight left in both NATO and Kiev and they aren’t ready to throw in the towel.  More likely, NATO see’s this as the point of no return where it must get directly involved.  My guess right now is NATO will use the excuse of North Korean troops becoming involved on behalf of Russia to grant Ukraine unrestricted use of weapons to target whatever and wherever Ukraine wants.  Even if the reports of North Koreans are true, they fail to mention the fact that they were brought in only after Ukraine (NATO) directly invaded Russian territory during the Kursk Offensive, which triggered Russian mutual defense agreements with North Korea.  Regardless, NATO most likely will make good on its threat to allow Ukraine to conduct deep strikes to try and slow the Russian army.  Of course, this will directly cross a hard Russian red line, but I don’t think it will have much of an impact. In fact, even with unrestricted use of NATO weapons, I’d expect Russian advances to continue to accelerate.  This will force NATO to do even dumber things like provide additional weapons previously restricted and then ultimately get directly involved.  Somewhere along this continuum of escalation…and I don’t know where…Russia is going to have enough.  They have already warned and warned NATO, to no avail.  As such, when that threshold is met, without warning Russia will strike NATO targets and this will trigger a rapid and drastic escalation into a direct war between Russia and NATO, aka, WW3 and this is why you should care the Donetsk Front is collapsing.  A leads to B pretty directly at this point and there is a growing chance you’ll get no warning prior to things literally blowing up.  Remember, Putin has a very consistent track record of giving maximum warnings, but once Russia assesses the fight as inevitable and unavoidable, it will opt to strike first.  If you fully comprehend the consequences of this last sentence, you should have felt chills go down your spine.  You better be ready for a no notice escalation and by that point, it will be too late.  So, remain apathetic at your own peril.

Stay alert,

D.t.Y.