What is Ukraine’s True Battle Plan for their “Spring” Offensive?

*Time Sensitive Analysis*

In my letter’s last week, I provided analysis of what I see are critical aspects of the war in Ukraine.  Of course, there are a million aspects related to the war I could have written about, but I down selected to the core issues I believe present information about the most time sensitive and critical dangers facing the world.  I have also tried to post these in an order that builds a foundation for understanding how the complexities present in the war directly relate to global stability and security.  In my first letter, I detailed the problem with Washington’s hyperfocus on the tactical and operational creating a massive blind spot for Russia’s actual strategic plan https://open.substack.com/pub/demosthenestheyounger/p/putins-real-objective-in-the-ukraine?r=2i78uh&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web.  Next, I discussed how the Ukrainian offensive is rapidly culminating into a tipping point that will force capitulation or massive escalation https://open.substack.com/pub/demosthenestheyounger/p/the-next-30-days-in-ukraine-may-determine?r=2i78uh&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web.  From there, I wrapped the week’s letters on the Ukraine War by discussing the scenarios (all bad) for what happens when the offensive fails and why it is critical a peace settlement is rapidly implemented to avert global disaster.  https://open.substack.com/pub/demosthenestheyounger/p/its-time-for-nato-to-discuss-options?r=2i78uh&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web.  Building off this foundation, I’d hoped to address some other core issues regarding the war, but due to what appears to be an already faltering offensive, it is very time sensitive that I instead discuss what I fear is quickly becoming Ukraine’s actual battle plan for their offensive.  If I am correct, we are entering the most dangerous period of this war to date.

By this point, even a casual observer of the war should be realizing the now summer offensive is not going as planned.  It appears that the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have suffered staggering losses in repeated failed attempts to breach even the first line of Russian defenses.  This of course could still change, but unfortunately, if the Ukraine was capable of blasting through Russian lines along multiple avenues of advance to cut off Crimea, we would have seen some evidence of that by now.  I am quickly coming to the conclusion that the best Ukraine could muster has been large but limited strikes that once failed, were recast as reconnaissance in force operations to save face.  That said, it is true that the AFU still has not committed the bulk of its forces so this could change.  However, per my previous letters, I make it clear that a piecemeal attempt at committing forces has zero chance of success and even a massive concentration of force along a single sector of the line of contact only has the potential to make a very costly and temporary pyrrhic breakthrough, which still leads to catastrophe.  If I can conclude this from afar, it is safe to say the AFU also knows this.  Remember though, this offensive plan is based on what the AFU’s NATO handlers tasked them with undertaking.  Perhaps, and I don’t consider this a remote possibility, the AFU knew NATO’s plan was going to be suicidal and fail so instead, decided to pursue their own strategy while launching a big enough token force to satisfy their NATO paymasters.  In fact, based on actions not words, I think this may have been the play for Ukraine all along and it has been NATO that was duped.  If so, then what would an alternative “offensive” plan look like?

Well, I am glad you asked.  I don’t think their offensive may turn out to look like an offensive at all.  Time will tell, but it is worth at least discussing the possibility that instead of ordering its remaining forces to be uselessly slaughtered in front of Russian defenses, AFU commanders have a different plan.  Let’s theorize and say that Ukraine built up as much force strength as possible while perpetually threatening to unleash an offensive to buy time.  Further, the AFU knew it needed to placate NATO to keep the weapons and money flowing so launched token attacks using forces sprinkled with enough high-end Western weapons to give it the look of a real operation.  Again, to buy time because they already knew any type of Ukrainian breakthrough at this point was futile.  Looking at the real world, this seems to be exactly what has transpired so far.  However, if my theory is to hold any water, there must be a purpose for buying time.  If not an offensive to regain lost territory, then what would be Ukraine’s plan to defeat Russia?  It’s kind of hard to win a war if you won’t fight, right!  I think the answer is that Ukraine believes delaying and preserving their forces will allow some type of major game changer for the war to materialize.  What that could be is what has me very worried.  Well, if I am so worried, “what would such a game changer look like,” you ask.  I think it is worth considering three possibilities, but only one is viable. 

A game-changing weapon system arriving soon could be a possibility.  However, there really isn’t anything remotely being discussed that could feasibly have the type of impact on the overall course of the war.  The F-16s would give the Ukrainians some legitimate capabilities, but not enough to change the overall dynamic.  The jet is a venerable fighter, but it is one or two generations obsolete and is extremely vulnerable to Russian air defense systems.  Further, the airfields and logistics tail to support the jets would be extremely vulnerable to Russian missile strikes.  This is not secret knowledge.  All parties know F-16s would only be of token value.  Honestly, the only weapon I am aware of that could be a true game changer would be a nuclear weapon.  However, the use of such a weapon by Ukraine would trigger a nuclear response by Russia that would kill and destroy everything and anything in the country.  Short of suicide, such a device offers no real use to Ukraine.  As such, I am going to exclude “Wunderwaffe” from the list of possible motives.

So, if no Wunderwaffe are going to save the day, what else might be a possible game changer?  Well, maybe the Ukrainians are opting to shift to an active defense.  They observed how Russia sucked their forces into what has been referred to as the “meat grinder” of Bakhmut so may have learned a few things.  Maybe they will try to do the same to Russia.  Would it be viable for the AFU to let Russia go on the offense seeking to trap and attrit their forces in sacrificial towns and cities?  I can’t definitively debunk this rationale, but I don’t believe it is viable for anything beyond a last-ditch effort.  If the AFU doesn’t have the forces to make at least one successful breech of the Russian lines, it is extremely unlikely they will be able to start losing significant territory and still maintain morale, international support, and any type of effective defense.  Further, there is no guarantee Russia would fall for the trap.  In fact, it is much more likely Russia would by-pass areas of stiff resistance and simply keep the focus on its major objectives.  Additionally, even if Russia allowed itself to be pulled into a reverse Bakhmut, there is every reason to believe the Ukrainians would suffer unsustainable casualties, which still would lead to complete collapse and defeat of its military.  Supporters of this hypothesis might also suggest that the AFU assesses Russia as close to defeat, so if they can force them to expend resources even a bit longer, Russia will capitulate.  This much I can dismiss as nonsense.  If the AFU cannot even launch an offensive, Russia is going to smell blood and redouble the fight.  If anything, Russia would go on the offensive, not capitulate.  Russia is also not even remotely close to being exhausted.  In summary, if the AFU doesn’t have the ability to beat Russia on the offense, it will be quickly doomed trying to play defense for anything longer than a brief few months.  Ukraine gains nothing from delaying.  For this reason, I also exclude this option for why Ukraine would opt to not commit its remaining forces to their alleged offensive. 

This brings me to the last possibility.  What if the AFU knew it had no chance at this point of defeating Russia?  What would it do?  What about Zelensky?  Would he not be worried about his life both domestically and abroad should the war fail?  I think it is just this scenario that the leadership in Ukraine have been formulating its plan around.  Assuming this reality, I think they would reserve whatever forces they had left to hold the country together while placating NATO and delaying Russia.  I think the delay is necessary while Ukraine focuses all of its energies on creating a pretext to force escalation and bring NATO into the war.  Other than surrender, this is the only possible path to victory Ukraine has at this point.  This is their one and only hope.  I can’t say I can conceive of an exhaustive list of possible scenarios that could be created that would effectively force NATO, willingly or not, to enter the conflict, but I can definitely see a few.  None of these are good and they all are variations of a false flag type incident.  For those still wearing blinders and living in denial, yes, the US does conduct false flags and creates lies to start wars.  In fact, the US has quite a history of them.  Let’s just throw out the USS Maine, the Gulf of Tonkin, WMDs and yellow cake, and Saddam sponsoring Al Qaeda.  As such, the first thing that came to mind is what the propagandists in the West have been prepping people’s minds for since last year.  That is Russia destroying the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.  Do I believe for a second Russia would do it?  No.  However, just like a pipeline and dam, it seems Russia has a knack for supposedly destroying its own critical infrastructure to defeat its enemies.  As such, I think after seeing a major dam destroyed, it is now an actual probability that Ukraine will destroy this nuclear power plant in a manner that they can blame it on Russia.  The hope would be to create a radiological disaster big enough to justify NATO having to enter the war.  Along those same lines, I would not put it past Ukraine to suddenly “get attacked” by a chemical or biological agent that “our intelligence agencies assessed as being launched by Russia.”  By pinning the use of WMD on Russia, Ukraine could hope to create a big enough “war crime” that NATO would be forced to intervene.  Another possibility is Ukraine could simply forward stage a Russian made missile system and target a NATO country or aircraft.  In fact, this scenario already played out once where Zelensky lied and blamed Russia for lobbing a missile into Poland even though the entire accusation was utterly absurd and totally false.  If Zelensky was willing to blame an errant Ukrainian air defense missile that landed in a farmer’s field in Poland on Russia and try to provoke NATO’s entrance into the war, he certainly would consider a better staged false flag.  Remember, there are a lot of large, slow, and vulnerable NATO aircraft flying around the Black Sea right now as a part of a major NATO air exercise that would make for easy pickings.  What better way to get NATO to enter the war and declare a no-fly zone than to have one of its surveillance planes blown out of the sky?  There is also a play to be made in Moldova over Transnistria.  If Ukraine moved some of its forces to Moldova, and my understanding is that Moldova has extended the invitation, there could be attacks staged against the Russian aligned people of Transnistria that leads to some of the Romanian (NATO) troops currently in Moldova getting injured or killed.  This would not only provoke Russia but may be enough to trigger NATO.  My final thought is the ultimate unattributable false flag scenario.  That is a cyber attack launched by Ukraine against Western targets that destroy critical infrastructure.  Of course, it would be made to look sloppy with Russian fingerprints all over it.  The US has been clear that it would consider a cyber-attack an attack and reserved the right to use kinetic force in response to such a destructive attack.  Assuming some very capable hackers working with and for the Ukraine, quite possibly with NATO and/or the CIA’s covert support, this is a very likely scenario.  This is even more timely considering the recent threats against Western banking systems “allegedly” being made by “Russian” hacktivist groups.  That is just way too convenient in the world I live in.  Again, this list isn’t exhaustive by any means.  It is meant to simply highlight some of the possible options Ukraine has to suck NATO into the war.  In fact, NATO may be helping with this covertly as a last-ditch effort to salvage their failing war effort.  As incredibly dangerous as this scenario is, I think it is also the most likely.  Let me finish by saying that even if the AFU still launches what is left of its forces into a disastrous offensive, we still may end up right back here very shortly once the offensive is crushed. 

As with all posts, recommendations for action.  This is one that is time sensitive, but you have the ability to stop this through some very simple actions.  Share and link this letter in as many places as you possibly can.  By exposing a potential false flag in advance, you destroy its effectiveness.  If this is discussed even in a couple major news broadcasts it ruins the plan.  Once people are sensitized to this scenario, it forces anyone considering this option to scrap the plan or risk being exposed and serious charges.  Till next time…