What We Know about the Attempted Coup in Russia

The last 48 hours have witnessed a dizzying amount of potentially world changing events in Russia with a reported coup taking place and being averted.  What actually happened is the question on everyone’s mind.  The truth is the people that would know aren’t speaking and the rest of us are speculating.  I was bombarded with questions regarding this, but aside from stating how obviously dangerous the situation was, I withheld comment.  There was just too much uncertainty to weigh-in without the comments bordering on being so unsupported it would be unethical and potentially cause unnecessary panic.  Now that events have taken some type of actual shape, I feel more comfortable speaking on at least the big picture.  The specific events and details are still too murky to do much more than make guesses.  As such, I want to speak to only what I can articulate with a logical rationale to provide you with some perspective.

In what appeared to be an armed uprising led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner Group reportedly marched on Moscow demanding the heads of the senior military leaders, took over Russian military bases, and downed Russian aircraft.  However, shortly before directly threatening the outskirts of Moscow, it appeared Prigozhin halted the advance and accepted a negotiated end to the uprising brokered by President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus.  So far, the terms of the deal seem to include charges will be dropped against Prigozhin and his forces, safe passage for Prigozhin to Belarus for exile, and the bulk of the Wagner forces will be transferred to Syria with the remainder that did not participate in the uprising being offered contracts in the regular military.  Beyond this, there isn’t much more that can safely be said to have occurred with definitive knowledge.  Nonetheless, these events, when viewed through the proper lens, do give us some indication about the direction of events in Russia and the Ukraine.

First, my biggest question is whether or not this uprising had Western backing or if it was organic.  The answer to that will have significant consequences either way.  Commentary is pouring in from speculators all over the net that the CIA or other Western sources were behind this.  This is fun to entertain and possible, but to date, I haven’t seen any convincing evidence to draw this conclusion.  In fact, I think as the evidence stands, it was just as likely that Prigozhin was legitimately fed up with the same type of incompetent bureaucrats we have in the US Department of Defense, said screw it, and made a unilateral move based on a history of demonstrated mental instability (perhaps PTSD), bolstered by a lot of popular support amongst the Russian population.  If it was backed by the West, it would be a total failure.  Further, I don’t think Putin or Lukashenko would have been okay allowing a traitor and CIA stooge to live.  I’d also have to ask why there were no coordinated supporting actions that were conducted along the front lines or by Ukrainian backed saboteurs or militia undoubtedly in areas such as Moscow and Belgorod.  Perhaps, they were ready, but held off until Prigozhin succeeded so as to not taint the public opinion regarding his motivations.  I cannot discount this completely, but I am very skeptical that if the CIA had bought off Prigozhin to launch a coup, there were simply no attempts along the Ukrainian front to exploit this chaos.  Instead, what I saw was paralysis in the West and in the Ukraine.  To me, they were caught as flatfooted as everyone else and didn’t really know what was going on or how to react.  In fact, they played a wait and see type policy.  This suggests to me the evidence is stronger that this was legitimately an internal “pissing contest” amongst Russians and not a bigger play by what has mainly been a very incompetent Western intelligence apparatus when it comes to successfully pulling off wins. 

What I can comfortably dismiss is the notion that this was a coordinated ploy by the Russians to deploy troops and other such nonsensical theories.  There is no way…none…that Putin would except the danger a “fake” coup attempt would pose to him, his government, and Russian prestige to mention nothing about the West miscalculating and doing something rash.  There is no way one can look at this and not see some political blood in the water and weakness.  Anyone that says that everything is fine in Moscow is a liar or a fool.  This most definitely is not “fine.”  Putin’s internal security forces failed to stop a serious threat to the government from materializing, seemed incapable of stopping what probably was less than 10,000 hardened disillusioned soldiers from taking over military bases and marching on Moscow, and had to use an outsider to negotiate a deal to bring it to an end.  I do believe the negotiated settlement was the right move, and in fact, it does seem to give some deference to Prigozhin’s claims about the failures of the military leadership, but it none-the-less shows weakness.  It was a forced hand Putin had to play when considering the alternative, which would have been a bloody internal fight that the longer it went on, the more likely it would be his government would collapse. 

Considering the above, I think Putin is well aware of some massive failings within his government.  It also shows that he isn’t the all-powerful dictator the West wants to make him out as.  In fact, it shows a leader that has to deal with the same type of political maneuvers as any other politician to garner and maintain the support of the majority.  In Putin’s world, weakness is not something that is long tolerated, and he is well aware of this.  I don’t know if Prigozhin is a dead man walking or if Putin will honor the guarantee of his safety, but I do know Putin is going to have to begin to look more like Stalin if he’s going to retain power.  I think the most important aspect of this is that he will not be afforded the same latitude in Ukraine as he has previously enjoyed.  Specifically, I think Putin is going to be forced to escalate the pace and intensity to show strength and resolve.  He just doesn’t appear to have the political capital at this point to fight what still appears to be a restrained war against Ukraine.  I think the Ukrainians know and fear this.  So, if you think that the danger is over and we can go back to sleep, you are very wrong.  This proves there is increasing chaos and less stability that threatens at anytime to decouple the global order.  Russia is going to be forced to go all in now with the war or Putin is going to be forced to capitulate and step down from power.  My guess is he’ll choose the former.  Time will tell, but the events triggered by this uprising are not over folks.  They are just beginning.  Till next time…