Who is Advising Trump Towards Conflict with Russia
Will NeoCon Manipulation Derail a Russian Peace Deal?
President Donald Trump took to Truth Social this week to expound publicly on his perspective on Russia and a peace deal. Despite what initially started like a welcomed olive branch and peace overture to Russia, the post quickly descended into a dumpster fire of bad information and an offensive threatening tone that will not play well in Moscow. President Trump, for all of the great populist actions he’s taking with his domestic policy appears to be over his head when it comes to his start point with Russia. President Trump insinuates through his post that the war is something Russia considers optional and that it will quit if it becomes uncomfortable and costly. Make no mistake, Russia sees this war as an existential struggle for the survival of the nation, its people, and its culture. It will not quit. It will fight this war to its decisive conclusion. This misunderstanding will lead to serious diplomatic and military miscalculations, which could rapidly thrust America into a direct conflict with Russia. To avoid this doomsday scenario, I hope at least a few key members of Trump’s inner circle might dedicate a few minutes to consider some advice by someone not biased and corrupted by the machinations of Washington and that has spent more than a minute studying the gameboard from the Russian perspective.
I’m not pulling any punches in this article so buckle up. Trump’s ignorance was evident from the start when he boasted he’d end the war in a day, which sadly proved to be nothing more than egotistic hot air. Trump can play to populist narratives in the US but using what feels like a childlike logic and bully tactics toward Russia risks squandering the last best hope the world has of off ramping from WW3 and a nuclear exchange. That said, I do believe President Trump wants peace, but he does not come factory standard with the requisite deep understanding of Russia. This has created a critical vulnerability within his Administration that Neo-Cons and those seeking to kneecap his Presidency are immediately taking advantage of. Specifically, I have no doubt that holdover apparatchiks within the Department of Defense and Intelligence Community are all too happy to feed him bad intelligence. Worse, his staff is led by former general Keith Kellogg, which is woefully overmatched for the task of Special Envoy to Ukraine and Russia. I offer no apology. Kellogg in particular is someone President Trump should immediately dispense with despite his valuable and appreciated support to Trump. Like Mattis and the other generals Trump should have learned a few lessons from, anything coming from Kellogg will be tainted by his mental institutionalization from a career in an incompetent and corrupt military bureaucracy reinforced by all too disturbing NeoCon credentials. Remember, these are generals have demonstrated no real competency for victory from Vietnam right up into the current defeats in Iraq and Afghanistan. Yes, I know Kellogg was with the 82nd Airborne during the Gulf War, but if you think beating up on Saddam’s large but utterly incompetent military was anything close to a test, you’re not a serious person. I also don’t give him any quarter post-9/11. The day of the attack, then Lieutenant General Kellogg was a senior officer with Joint Staff J6. I have to admit, there is a conspiratorial piece of me that perks up when I review his bio and discover he was the person who assumed command of the alternate command post at Raven Rock Mountain Complex with United States Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz knowing what kind of dirtbag Wolfowitz was. I get his command-and-control billet, but let’s say there is still a lot that occurred on 9/11 that has never been made public. The Gulf War in Iraq was stealing candy from a baby. A war with Russia will be the heavyweight title fight of the century. Fast-forward now to Iraq where Kellogg served in a senior role in the doomed Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq where his performance wasn’t going to win him any Oscars. At no time after that did Kellogg unveil anything close to an alternative strategy for victory in either Iraq or Afghanistan even in the civilian capacity. In comparison to Russian officers fighting a high intensity conflict on a scale Kellogg has never experienced are developing warfighting expertise completely absent in all Western militaries. A general that failed to decisively pacify Iraq or at least have the courage to speak out against the obviously flawed and losing strategies when it mattered is not up to taking on the Russians. If it wasn’t so serious, it would be a good joke. Considering this emerging confrontation of national wills, it’s critical that the ground truth, Russian interests, and our own realities are crystal clear, so no one miscalculates. The stakes are too high.
Neither President Trump nor Keith Kellogg understands the true nature of this war and seem to be taking at face value the garbage intelligence assessments regarding things like casualties from the same people that assessed Russia wouldn’t invade, and then that Russia would run out of ammo, and that Russia would go broke if it was sanctioned, and that Russia was a paper tiger that Ukraine could defeat with modern NATO wonder weapons. All of their analyses were grossly wrong, and Trump should not be putting stock in their updated assessments. If anything, Trump should be firing the senior intelligence analysts responsible for these failures and Kellogg should be stating as much publicly. There are at least some positive signs on this front as Mike Waltz, Trump’s National security advisor, has recently fired dozens of these fools that had infested the National Security Council. Despite the bad intelligence most likely being intentionally fed to Trump to set him up for failure, I believe the inability of Trump and Kellogg to grasp the battlefield realities is age related bias. They simply cannot see the world beyond a Cold War perspective. Further, they cannot conceive of a situation where a modern Russia is victorious. This is in large part ego driven cognitive dissonance, which sets the stage for what I fear are serious miscalculations.
Against the backdrop of the American political shakeup, Russian President Putin has skillfully navigated every scheme NATO and Ukraine attempted to escalate the war prior to President Trump assuming the presidency. Russia endured provocative attacks, red lines being crossed, and invasions of its own soil with the patience of a saint and the chin of Mike Tyson. Putin, if nothing else, is stoically ice cold when it comes to making decisions without emotion. He understood Brussels and Kiev would do everything possible to expand the war beyond Ukraine’s borders prior to Trump taking office and he successfully parried every attack to give this moment every opportunity of success. President Putin understands what is at stake. He knows what Russia is capable of and he knows what it's up against. As a hedge, Russia has quietly amassed troops and weapons in reserve far beyond what is needed to prosecute the war in Ukraine to its decisive conclusion in case it must escalate the war but has yet to unleash this force. Despite Russia gaining momentum and pushing back Ukraine, Putin is willing to give every opportunity for a negotiated peace settlement because he knows the costs. When I say costs, I mean the human toll in Ukraine in particular, but potentially for the world. Do not be deceived. Despite the war continuing, Ukraine has already lost. The situation at this point for Kiev is not salvageable short of direct NATO entry into the war, which it desires. From here out, Ukrainian forces can only mount a delaying action as their forces retreat to the west buying time to establish a new line of defense along the Dnieper River. The war is no longer sustainable for Ukraine and their heaviest casualties and darkest days lay directly ahead if the war is not brought to an end.
Despite the popular support for Trump in America, Putin too enjoys widespread support in Russia and is not the least intimidated by Trump. If anything, I think Trump is at least envious of Putin if not also a little intimidated by him. In fact, Trump comes across very much as the big loudmouth bully and Putin more like the quiet kid that smashes his nose, punches him in the throat, and kicks him in the balls before sending him home crying to mommy. Trump is indeed built differently, but it’s equally true to say Russians are just built differently too. In a force of wills, both can dish out serious damage, but Russia is much more willing to endure pain than the US or Europe. In short, the West has far more to lose than Russia and this means any attempts at brinkmanship by Trump are doomed to fail. Remember, Putin grew up in the shadow of starvation and the horrors of WWII rising to power through some of the darkest days of the Soviet Union’s collapse. Trump grew up dodging the draft as an entitled wealthy child. Trump is seen as soft, easily manipulated through ego, impulsive, and not someone that would last very long in Russia. My advice is this fight isn’t worth it. Russia is the nation-state equivalent to a honey badger and for those that know what’s best for them, leave it the hell alone.
My hope is after the presidents meet, Trump will realize that this war, contrary to narratives in the West, is not some imperial adventure, but an existential battle for Russia’s survival and unwinnable for Ukraine. Russia will fight this war to a decisive conclusion no matter the costs. President Trump has shown no sign he understands this Russian determination, or the costs NATO would incur to try to stop Russia, much less defeat it. In fact, Trump seems to have bought into this narrative that Russian will buckle if another round of sanctions is imposed. Seeing that the first thousand or so rounds of sanctions haven’t worked on anyone but Europe, let’s say I’m less than optimistic these sanctions will move the needle. Russia isn’t going to be economically bullied and would prefer to starve before it caved to such pressures. If anything, more sanctions will only result in more pain for Europe and further alienate countries like China, but leave Russia, which has all but divorced its economy from the West, relatively unscathed. Please note, I’m not saying that sanctions and/or sanctions relief won’t factor into Putin’s calculus for his own personal financial well-being. I’m only pointing out that this is not new, hasn’t been successful, and is rather unimpressive to lead with. There is simply no enviable diplomacy left in the US. The ineffective bullying strategy of issuing sanctions has become symptomatic of the intellectually void policy incompetence at the US Department of State. Someone must provide Trump a history lesson on Russia and remind him they would rather burn Moscow than surrender. Only when Trump is forced to confront the reality that failing to press Ukraine into surrendering will only result in millions more deaths and Ukraine still being defeated as the Best-case scenario, will he start to internalize he has no real negotiating leverage over Russia and must force Ukraine to surrender. Trump can offer carrots to Russia, but he cannot wield the stick. The stick leads to escalation that to counter would require NATO to become directly involved. Once pulling this thread, you must follow it to its conclusion and that is WW3.
Trump must understand that failure to negotiate Ukraine’s surrender on Russia’s terms leads to WW3 and the destruction of Europe and the US. To say this results in the failure of Trump’s Administration and legacy is an understatement. Ironically, the man that was elected to save the nation, end wars, and stop the Globalists and their Reset will be the man that destroys the nation, involves us in WW3, and completes the Globalists Reset, even if inadvertently, if he doesn’t shelve his ego and agree to a Russian peace proposal. I mention Russia’s terms, so I want to lay out what President Putin has consistently reiterated when it comes to how this war will end. Russia will agree to end the war if Ukraine completely disarms, agrees to remain neutral with no path to joining NATO, denazifies, and the international community respects the new territorial realities of the land captured by Russia.
In the grand scheme, is this really so bad? No one really cares in the US if Russia wins, and it doesn’t impact any of our vital national security interests. Three years ago, most Americans couldn’t find Ukraine on a map (most still can’t) and the ones that could assumed it was a Russian state. In fact, Ukraine was never our sphere of influence in the first place. Only by sticking our nose in what amounted to a back alley Slavic mob war did we somehow engineer linking Kiev’s victory or defeat to an existential battle for the soul of NATO. Trump must decouple Kiev’s inevitable defeat from NATO or he will double down on unforced errors and shatter NATO in the process…perhaps for the best. It’s time Europe moves past the Cold War and reintegrates Russia. Russia will be a willing partner of Europe and the US if allowed. In fact, our policy in Ukraine has been our own worst enemy. Only global elites and war profiteers speculating on the spoils of Ukraine’s carcass had ever anything to benefit from this war. Sadly, over a million good people have been killed. Ukrainian casualties are catastrophic and approaching the point of a self-imposed Slavic genocide by proxy. Ukraine now faces total annihilation if the war progresses beyond this current phase with no hope of victory. Ominously, Trump ended his social media post by warning Putin that we can do it the easy way or the hard way. Well, Mr. President, my thoughts are you first. You dodged the draft in Vietnam so maybe this if your chance to lead the troops into battle. If so, will you promise to commission Speaker Mike Johnson and a battalion of congressmen and their staffers to fight on the front lines too? As for the rest of us, this is not our fight and we reserve the right not to do it “the hard way.” Our military is not suddenly better. The damage inflicted upon it will take decades to repair to speak nothing of the trust lost. We are in no place to be making such demands, and neither are you. You work for us, and we sent you to Washington with a mandate to end the war on day one, not move the goalposts, provide additional military aid to Ukraine, escalate the conflict, and ultimately trigger a hot war with Russia. Not a cent more of our money and not another life for this stupid unnecessary war.
In a final warning for President Trump and his staff, do not escalate the US role in this war. Do not move the goal posts. Extricate us immediately from the war and let nature take its course. If you do not, you will not only destroy your Administration and your legacy, but you will destroy yourselves, your families, and the entire country if not also a good portion of the world. This is not a winnable conflict and never was. It is not our war, and our interests are not threatened or at stake. We reject our involvement and will refuse to fight for Globalist interests. Our military is incompetent, unprepared, and our industrial base is non-existent. We can neither fight nor win a long-term conflict with a peer military. By becoming further involved we risk making this fight existential and unleashing a nuclear nightmare. This is our one window of opportunity to cut the losses and return peace to the region. My fear is that if the opportunity is missed, it will be gone for good and by fall of 2025, we could be facing nuclear war.
D.t.Y.
1/24/25