Zelensky’s Stalingrad Moment

The Defense of Avdeevka Collapses

As subscribers to my Substack, you are well aware that when conventional military operations break down, it is not a slow decay.  Rather, it is catastrophic.  Today, Russian forces effectively cut Avdeevka in half trapping anywhere from 3,000-5,000 Ukrainian troops.  Despite claims that the city is only symbolic and holds no military significance, the truth couldn’t be farther from those claims.  Avdeevka has been the cornerstone of Ukrainian attacks against Donetsk for roughly nine years and was known to be the most fortified defensive position in Ukraine.  Well, it was.  Today, after a string of brilliant and hard-fought breakthroughs, Russia has trapped a large chunk of Zelensky’s army while the rest are beginning a dangerous retreat to the West.  Only the early spring mud may save them from their pursuers, but the reprieve will be at best temporary.  The war has now shifted decisively in favor of Russia.  This has become Zelensky’s Stalingrad Moment.

Reminiscent of the earlier failure in Bakhmut, Zelensky again insisted on holding Avdeevka to the last Ukrainian and it appears Russia is obliging him.  Ukrainian forces are now trapped for all intents and purposes in the eastern half of the city.  The have only two options: fight to their deaths or surrender.  This is the equivalent of almost two full brigades of critically needed infantry Ukraine can ill afford.  Without wanting to sound too cliché, Zelensky is exhibiting much of the same characteristics and decision-making blunders Hitler made when faced with a similar overwhelming force.  His ego has prevented him from ceding territory when it was operationally necessary, which in both the battle for Stalingrad and the battle for Avdeevka, left the respective armies surrounded and routed.  The defeat inflicted such a loss on Germany, the damage was unrepairable.  Yes, I am well aware that the war was over for Germany well before Stalingrad, but so was the war for Ukraine.  After Stalingrad, the war became a series of chaotic delaying actions despite some monumental efforts to rally a defense from the shattered Wehrmacht.  Further, effective offensive operations on the Eastern Front became impossible.  Ukraine’s future looks eerily similar at this moment.  The parallels don’t stop there.  Zelensky, like Hitler has now begun to sack his generals as scapegoats for the failure.  In addition, Zelensky is also forcing his military to fight a delaying action to the last man.  This again parallels Hitler’s fanatical attempt to stop the inevitable by doing the same, which invited catastrophic and unnecessary losses on Germany prior to its ultimate defeat.  Look folks, I know the analogy isn’t perfect, but Avdeevka is going to be remembered as the watershed moment in the war where the tide decisively changed in Russia’s favor much as it was perceived after their victory in Stalingrad.

Let me reiterate.  This victory is not just symbolic as the propagandists are trying to spin it.  It will have devastating consequences for Ukraine that will mark the beginning of a series of defeats and disasters along the way to its surrender.  With the fall of the city, Russia will be able to recapitalize its forces to concentrate and overwhelm the rest of the front line.  In fact, Avdeevka was just the headlining battle, but all across the contact line, Ukrainian forces are being overwhelmed and falling back.  Despite Ukraine’s efforts, these rear area defenses are not nearly as formidable as the lines they just lost and have been hastily constructed.  Do you see what is about to happen?  The flood of additional Russian forces now freed up to reinforce other areas of battle will begin a reinforcing feedback loop.  As each pocket of resistance falls, Russia will be able to recapitalize those troops to be used against the residual holdouts, then the next, and then the next.  With each Ukrainian defeat, the Russian forces grow more powerful making it just that much easier to defeat the next Ukrainian stronghold.  For those of you that are fans of the board game Risk, you know exactly what I am talking about.  The cascade of defeats grows into a flood as an opponent wipes out your armies growing stronger with each victory.  Historically speaking, this feedback loop soon grows into an overwhelming juggernaut that begins steamrolling everything in its path as Ukrainian lines are cut to pieces and collapse in panic. 

The only saving grace for Ukraine at this moment is the fact an early thaw is quickly turning the ground into an impassable muddy soup.  This will slow any Russian pursuit and allow Ukrainians that escape the cauldron to flee back to friendly lines and regroup.  However, this will at best be only a temporary reprieve.  This war has already ground down to an infantry fight and Ukraine is out of soldiers.  Further, Russia has already moved up well over a hundred thousand troops along the front lines in preparation for this moment.  Once Avdeevka is cleared, which will probably take a couple more weeks, the rest of the Russian army is poised to strike across the entire front.  Much of this will be infantry operations as both sides have been pinned down in almost set piece static defenses for much of the last year.  This means there are a lot of troops from both sides anchored in close proximity enabling Russia to maximize use of combined arms forces in support of the infantry.  This also means Ukraine is faced with keeping most of its forces in contact where they will be annihilated or pulling them back, losing huge chunks of land, and then still getting overrun by Russian forces.  Again, do you see the dire situation Ukraine now faces?  Even massive conscription at this point will be too late to change the outcome.  The game has more moves to be played, but the outcome has now been solidified short of outside intervention.

Let me spend a moment on panic.  Panic is contagious and Ukraine is beginning to panic as the gravity of this defeat settles in.  When coupled with the growing social unrest in Ukraine to forced conscription, things will only collapse faster.  Supplies are short, they are out of manpower, and the Russians are gaining momentum.  As word spreads of the fall of the stronghold, panic and despair will set in across the front line.  That hopelessness is reality dawning on the troops, which are already demoralized so, nothing good will come of this and it will lead to a volatile and unstable condition across the front.  Interestingly, this was the exact situation the “experts” in our intelligence agencies predicted for Russia at the outset of the war.  I have to wonder rhetorically who will be fired for this latest intelligence disaster (Hint: no one). 

Kiev is not the only one panicking though.  Brussels, London, and Washington are also in crisis mode.  They are now facing a situation quickly spiraling out of their control and are incapable of stopping the bleed through conventional means.  When this happens, things become very dangerous…too dangerous in fact to leave operatives on the ground and they begin to be evacuated and flee.  This only amplifies the speed at which the situation deteriorates.  As I have extensively written in previous letters, this sets the stage for desperation acts.  I fully expect Kiev, with or without NATO support, to conduct any and all types of terror operations and false flags to create a pretext to justify NATO’s entrance into the war.  This includes shooting down Western jets or firing into NATO countries in a manner that can be blamed on Russia.  There is no other option at this point.  Either NATO directly enters the war and soon, or it’s over and Russia will be exacting a toll Western Europe is not prepared to pay.  This creates the conditions where the Establishment historically flips over and burns the game board so belt up folks.  Just like the period of time when the “Spring” Offensive collapsed, we are entering another window where things can get very dicey.  Pay close attention because things may happen very quickly.

Till next time,

D.t.Y.